Blog Entry

Late night projections

Posted on: December 4, 2011 2:16 am
Edited on: December 4, 2011 6:18 pm
BCS and bowl projections are up for this evening.  Before the official release, we will see the coaches' poll , which will help clarify things further, but I believe the Harris poll isn't released before the final rankings come out.

I am still projecting LSU-Alabama for the title game, but Oklahoma State had a good night.  The biggest thing that happened was Virginia Tech losing, which gives the Cowboys one less team between themselves and the Tide.  OSU will also get a little computer boost from its win over Oklahoma and will most likely finish ahead of Alabama in that component.

After that, it's up to the voters.  They may be impressed by 44-10, but it is a lot to ask (and predict) that voters will suddenly move the Cowboys up high enough to take advantage of their computer ranking. Such a move would be unprecedented and quite atypical of voter behavior.

In 2006, when voters changed their mind and elevated Florida over Michigan, the Gators deficit was quite a bit less than the number of voters in each poll.  Oklahoma St started this week a whopping 342 points behind Alabama in the Harris poll and 166 back in the coaches' poll, which is nearly three times the number of voters in each poll.  The Hokies' loss will help some, but it will take a significant voter epiphany to put Oklahoma State close enough to Alabama to overtake them.

It looks like Michigan got the help it needed to qualify for the at-large pool.  I don't think it looks good for TCU though.  The voters will really have to come to the Frogs' rescue, and that doesn't seem likely.

So, with that in mind, I now have Kansas State in the BCS instead of TCU. 


Since: Apr 2, 2011
Posted on: January 13, 2012 10:18 am

Late night projections


Since: Oct 8, 2006
Posted on: December 4, 2011 3:49 pm

Here's one more reason for a playoff

Why can't we get this done?  You have several schools with 1 loss yet schools with 3 losses are playnig in BCS Bowl games.

Since: Nov 19, 2006
Posted on: December 4, 2011 2:43 pm

Late night projections

Youhave to be very careful here when looking at where a team like TCU may finish.  The voters can be easily influenced by things such as voting a two loss AQ team (Kansas State) in over a two loss non AQ team (TCU).  To do that, the voters would have to make sure that TCU does not rank in the top 16.  That means intentionally dumping them down lower in their votes than they deserve.  Adding on to this is the fact that Boise State will still finish higher in the polls than TCU, and both Houston and Southern Miss may also do that.  It looks as if no non AQ team will get into a BCS game, and that is really bad, considering that two 3 loss teams will be in a BCS Bolw game, probably the Orange Bowl.  Something is wrong with this. 

Since: Aug 27, 2006
Posted on: December 4, 2011 12:35 pm

Late night projections

I don't understand this talk of TCU in a BCS bowl.  They have two losses, no fan base, and no national draw.  What bowl would willingly take them over a 2-loss team with a larger fan base from a BCS conference?  Just stupid.

The BCS bowls wouldn't have a choice. TCU gets a BCS bowl spot automatically if it finishes in the top 16 of the BCS standings and ahead of a BCS conference champion (they'll likely be ahead of the Big East's West Virginia in the polls). Palm, if I understand him correctly, thinks the Frogs will fall outside the top 16 in tonight's final BCS standings. That's why he has Kansas State in the mix.

Southern Mississippi is in the same boat as the Conference USA champ. It would get an automatic bid instead of TCU if it were to finish in the top 16 and ahead of West Virginia and TCU.

Note: That would take quite a bump in the rankings. Houston is a nice win, but probably not enough for that kind of a move.

The rule is: The highest-ranked non-AQ conference champion can get an auto bid to the BCS if it finishes ahead of a AQ conference champion, but only if they're in the top 16. Boise State can't take advantage of that because TCU is the Mountain West champ by virtue of it's head-to-head tiebreaker over the Broncos.

Since: Sep 25, 2006
Posted on: December 4, 2011 12:15 pm

Late night projections

I don't understand this talk of TCU in a BCS bowl.  They have two losses, no fan base, and no national draw.  What bowl would willingly take them over a 2-loss team with a larger fan base from a BCS conference?  Just stupid.

Since: Nov 9, 2008
Posted on: December 4, 2011 11:34 am

Late night projections

Recipe for a college football playoff -


Since: Jun 10, 2010
Posted on: December 4, 2011 5:32 am

Late night projections

I totally agree. I just don't understand why the pundants don't see, and point out, that Alabama lost the LSU game ON THEIR HOME FIELD! If it had been at LSU, maybe I can see that. However, the BCS, although terribly broken, has never had two teams from the same conference meet in the title game. It makes no sense to have that happen here, and it will likely make America hate the BCS even more. Food for thought; anyone thought of the D1 NCAA schools sueing the NCAA for not having a National Championship in football when they do in all the other sports?

Since: Dec 6, 2009
Posted on: December 4, 2011 3:34 am

Late night projections

It seems to me that Bama had its chance at LSU and blew it, I say let someone else have a crack at them.  The only really serious offense that LSU faced was Oregon, and that was when they were not at their best.  I say let OSU have a go.  I dont think the BCS can afford an all SEC matchup.  The BCS is already quite maligned, and not well liked.  It would really be unfair to the rest of the country to have a game, one that has already happened, two that was a great defensive battle,,but pretty boring otherwise.  Let some fireworks go, lets see what Mathieu thinks he could do against Justin Blackmon,,for the record, I think Blackmon would eat him up.  The BCS will do its job by putting the two best teams in the country together and that is LSU Bama,,but not by much, I say give the people what they want. Let LSU and OSU have at it and let Alabama tangle with Baylor in the SUgar Bowl.  Clemson and Stanford can light up the Orange Bowl.  West Virginia and BOise can have the Fiesta.  That would make for some good games.   Of course it wont happen, that would be fun.

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