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Blog Entry

Feb. 10 bracket

Posted on: February 10, 2012 11:48 am
Edited on: February 10, 2012 11:50 am
 
Today's bracket is up, and for the first time in a couple weeks, there is a change at the top.  Baylor is gone after another blowout loss to KansasOhio State has moved up to take the Bears' place.

Duke's win over North Carolina has the Blue Devils making a push for the top line as well, but home losses to Florida State and Miami are still too much to overcome.

Murray State suffered its first loss of the season last night at home to Tennessee State.  That dropped them down to a five-seed in today's bracket.  Every Racers' loss, with the possible exception of one to St. Mary's, will have an increasing, negative effect on their seed.  It might only take three or four bad losses, including one in the Ohio Valley tournament, of course, to knock them out of the field altogether.

I think the best comparison to a past team right now is the 1998 Princeton team that went 25-1.  The fifth-seeded Tigers' only loss that year was to No. 1 North Carolina, so obviously, that is a much better loss than Murray's.  However Princeton beat only one top 50 RPI team that season, and nobody that made the tournament.

There is also a comparisons being made to the 2006 George Washington team that finished 26-2 and was an 8-seed, but their seed suffered because of an injury to star Pops Mensah-Bonsu.

The teams that were either a three or four seed in Tuesday's bracket went 1-5 since then.  Michigan State was the only winner, while Georgetown, Florida, Murray State, Creighton and St. Mary's all lost.

Florida State took a dive after losing at Boston College, dropping down to a 9-seed.  The Seminoles had been playing much better lately, but a third bad loss really hurts their tournament profile.
Cal replaces Washington again at the leader of the Pac 12, which still shows only one bid at the moment.  The Huskies got drilled at Oregon last night.

And finally, a reminder of how I make those conference leader decisions for the bracket.  The conference leader is designated as the team with the fewest conference losses.  Ties are broken by RPI.  As a Northwest Indiana guy, I'm as excited as anyone that Valparaiso beat Cleveland State last night to take a half-game lead on the Vikings in the Horizon League.  However, CSU still has a better RPI, so the Vikes are still listed as the leader and in the bracket.  I do it this way because it's the most likely way to get each league's best team into the projection.  Once conference tournament seeding is decided, I go with the top seed remaining.


Comments

Since: Oct 16, 2011
Posted on: February 13, 2012 2:51 pm
 

Feb. 10 bracket

in regards to NORTHWESTERN ^^^^




Since: Oct 16, 2011
Posted on: February 13, 2012 2:50 pm
 

Feb. 10 bracket

they have 6 games left they need to win 4 off them. but they have to go to Indiana and win, there RPI is in the top 50 so if they get a win on the road the voters will have a hard time keeping them out



Since: Jan 3, 2009
Posted on: February 12, 2012 11:54 am
 

Feb. 10 bracket

It am surprised  that Jerry Palm has UConn seeded #8 in his bracket .  There seem to be many more deserving teams.

UConn is 15-9, 5-7 in the Big East.  The Huskies have ZERO wins over Top 25 teams and two glaring losses to teams with RPIs > 100.  They have one loss to a Top Ten team and two more losses to Top 25 teams (closest loss 14 points in these three games).

Texas is 16-9, 6-6 in the Big 12.  The Longhorns have beaten one Top 25 team. One loss to a >100 RPI team.   They have five losses (of their six!) to Top Ten teams (including two games by a combined three points). 

UMass is 18-7, 7-4 in the Atlantic 10.  The Minutemen have beaten one Top 25 team and have two losses to teams with RPI> 100.

UCF is 18-7, 7-4 in Conference USA.  In addition to beating UConn head-to-head (neutral site), the Knights have a second Top 25 win.  They have two losses against Top 25 teams (closest 4 points) and two losses against teams with RPIs >100.

Washington is 16-8, 9-3 in the Pac 12.  These Huskies also have ZERO wins against Top 25 teams, but have zero losses against teams with RPIs> 100 (so no bad losses).  They have one loss to a Top Ten team (by six points) and two other losses to Top 25 teams (one by 4 points).

To me, how you do in your conference (UConn has a losing record), against the Top 10 and 25 teams, and also losses against bad (RPIs >100 ) are all that matters (although home and away games should carry less and more weight, respectively).  To me, beating a team with an RPI of 39 is no different than beating a team with an RPI of 62. 




Since: Feb 10, 2009
Posted on: February 11, 2012 4:55 am
 

Feb. 10 bracket

How does Colorado State get such a high RPI? Their schedule isn't very impressive.



Since: Sep 17, 2006
Posted on: February 10, 2012 7:11 pm
 

Feb. 10 bracket

Any idea on what more Northwestern has to do to once again enter the bracket?


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