Blog Entry

Pac-12 a one-bid league? It's possible

Posted on: March 4, 2012 8:49 pm
With Cal, Arizona and Washington all losing this weekend, the Pac-12 is in at-large trouble. (US Presswire)

By Jeff Borzello

The mediocrity of the Pac-12 has been a running joke in the college basketball world this season, but this weekend took it to a new level.

Washington lost to UCLA, but still won the outright regular-season championship after California lost to Stanford on Sunday evening. Arizona, which had seen its at-large hopes get better and better recently, lost to Arizona State. The only team that helped its Selection Sunday chances was Oregon, which put a whooping on Utah.

The chances that the Pac-12 was only going to get one bid to the NCAA tournament seemed pretty low prior to the weekend, but now it’s not a far-fetched idea. To be honest, no one should feel remotely comfortable about its at-large chances heading into the conference tournament.

Let’s look at the resumes, in the correct pecking order.

California: The Golden Bears clearly have the best at-large resume of the quartet, and also went 3-0 against Oregon and Washington. The computer profile is pretty solid, and they are 6-5 against the top 100. On the other side, they have three sub-100 losses and didn’t finish with a share of the league title. The non-conference profile is also mediocre, as the best win outside of the Pac-12 was over Weber State. They probably felt safe for much of the season, but there’s still work to be done.

Washington: The Huskies don’t have a great profile, but they nonetheless won the outright regular-season championship, which will be a great bargaining chip on Selection Sunday. They are only 1-6 against the top 50 and 3-8 against the top 100. The only bad loss was Saturday’s defeat at the hands of UCLA. Overall, the Huskies did not beat a single NCAA tournament team, as the best non-league wins are over UC-Santa Barbara and Georgia State. Those are their only two non-conference wins over teams ranked in the top 200 of the RPI.

Oregon: The Ducks have slowly but surely played themselves into at-large contention over the past month, winning 11 of their last 14 games. Moreover, they thumped Washington by 25 points in early February. The RPI has moved into the top 50, as well. Now, for the bad. 19 of their 22 wins are over teams ranked outside the top 100, and they are 0-5 vs. the top 50. There’s one sub-100 loss, a home defeat to Oregon State. The non-conference profile is barren, with the best wins coming over Nebraska and UTEP. The thing that complicates their profile is Devoe Joseph, who missed the first six games of the season.

Arizona: The Wildcats are essentially finished when it comes to an at-large bid, after their terrible loss at Arizona State. It dropped them to fourth in the Pac-12, and is a sub-250 loss. The computer profile is mediocre, and 17 of their 21 wins came from outside the top 100. There is a road win at California on the ledger, but that won’t carry them to a bid. Arizona now needs to win the Pac-12 tournament if it wants a bid.

Can the Pac-12 really only get one bid? If California wins the tournament, it’s possible.


Since: Sep 28, 2008
Posted on: March 5, 2012 6:44 pm

Pac-12 a one-bid league? It's possible

MikeSyr, I never thought I'd say this, but I agree with you completely. That Colorado, the worst basketball team in the Big 12, could move to the Pac-12 and make an immediate impact, is testament to how bad this conference is. I find it funny now to think that the past offseason everyone was talking about them becoming some big superconference.
Lets make it a habit. I knew that whole "superconference" thing was never going to happen. Just a thing to fuel the press and buzz up the posters on this site and other sites.

mikesyr... i'll admit this year the pac12 has fallen off. that's because so many of their players are currently DOMINATING the NBA. the pac12 has quite a few prominent basketball schools. it'd serve you right to stay up past 10 and watch a few games now and then, unlike the rest of the biased east coast, and get your head out of the sand of philly's crap news media
Yet, none of these teams are able to go deep in the tourney. 

Just so you know, you should realize that just because your conference has a few lottery picks every couple of years, doesn't mean your conference is deep. 

Since: Sep 28, 2008
Posted on: March 5, 2012 6:40 pm

Pac-12 a one-bid league? It's possible

Hey MikeSyr18, Why don't you look stuff up before spouting your ignorance.
Call it ignorant, I don't care. But at least a couple of people have called my statement correct. 

The Pac-12 is filled with mediocrity. 12 schools, two real historic schools, three schools that have ever done anything, ever. Not a single national title since 1997, and one program has made it to the final four since then and that was twice in the early 2000's.

Nothing but mediocrity.

Your stats mean nothing. Use common sense and just realize the Pac-12 doesn't have depth.  

Since: Dec 9, 2011
Posted on: March 5, 2012 6:38 pm

Pac-12 a one-bid league? It's possible

I cant believe that the pac-12 is so bad. Last year Arizona was good. I realize that they lost Senors but come on! really? They are aweful!!!

Since: Jan 7, 2009
Posted on: March 5, 2012 6:20 pm

Pac-12 a one-bid league? It's possible

Washington, Cal, Arizona, Oregon in that order.

Since: Jan 27, 2012
Posted on: March 5, 2012 6:13 pm
This comment has been removed.

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Since: Jan 27, 2012
Posted on: March 5, 2012 6:08 pm
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Since: Mar 21, 2008
Posted on: March 5, 2012 5:27 pm

Pac-12 a one-bid league? It's possible

I don't buy the logic here.  I would think that three are in, no matter what.  And I think a fourth might sneak in the door.   But to think that conferences with 6-8 terams maybe getting in, is pretty ridiculous.    
If a team is barely 500 in conference, doesn't make sense that they even get in at all.  TYhe exception being a team with MULTIPLE wins agains tthe top 25.  Not just One.  I mean Northwester with a 7-11 conf record?  

The comment that highlighted teh RPI is all made in the Nov Dec is a good one.  But that still doesn't save the Pac 12, in that even in teh big games they had, they really didn't perform well. 

But when it is all said and done, Pac 12 is likely to have 7 teams with 20 win seasons, and while their RPI is low, they will have 5-6 teams in teh top 68 in the nation and in Sagarin ratings.    I beleiv Cal and Wash are in, Az would have been if thwey had won Sunday, so they are leaning, Oregon will be tough to keep out if they win a game or two in the tourney.  I thin UCLA and Stanford are both really strong teams as the season closes, and I think if they got to the Championship game, that would give them a chance, say last four out or in.

Since: Mar 6, 2008
Posted on: March 5, 2012 4:46 pm

Pac-12 a one-bid league? It's possible

Talk about: East coast bias, seemed to me last season (both) UCLA and USC put a scare in a perrinial power: Kansas Jayhawks and that was in:"their house" Anyone remember last time: Kentucky or Kansas travelled to the mediocor Pac 12??? As for posters, trying to bury Pac's Tourney records, they seem to have a short memory. Biggest joke last year Big Least getting most teams in the tourney, than falling like flys in the early rounds. So MikeSyr18, try to use tiny bit of intellegence, in your future writings!!! 

Since: Jan 20, 2009
Posted on: March 5, 2012 4:28 pm

Pac-12 a one-bid league? It's possible

The reason the Pac-12 has lack of "quality" wins against top 100 RPI teams, is because the stupid RPI is basically decided in November/December.  From the start of the season, the Pac 12 did not have any stand out teams and didn't have any big non-conference wins before the Pac 12 season started...therefore nobody moved up in the RPI since December.  Not much at least.  While teams that play in the Big East or Big 12 for example, play way more games against teams with higher RPI's, so their resume looks better as far as wins against top 100 teams.

However, I still don't understand how a team who wins a "MAJOR" conference title, could still be listed as on the bubble?  Regardless of lack of quality wins, a team that wins their conference deserves to dance more than the team that finishes 8th in their conference. It's simple concept that has been turned into a computer equation.  But look out for that #4-5 seed that has to play UW or Cal in the first round!  

Since: Aug 19, 2006
Posted on: March 5, 2012 4:27 pm

Pac-12 a one-bid league? It's possible

Sorry nolongerafan, but Colorado has never had a winning record in Big 12 play, and now they're sitting at 11-7 in the Pac 12. I don't think it's a stretch to say that if they were in the Big 12 this year they'd have a losing overall record, and they've beaten each of the Pac 10's top 4 teams, demolishing Washington and Cal by 18 and 13 respectively. I think this is a relevant measuring post for how horrible the Pac 12 is this year.

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