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Blog Entry

Pac-12 a one-bid league? It's possible

Posted on: March 4, 2012 8:49 pm
 
With Cal, Arizona and Washington all losing this weekend, the Pac-12 is in at-large trouble. (US Presswire)

By Jeff Borzello

The mediocrity of the Pac-12 has been a running joke in the college basketball world this season, but this weekend took it to a new level.

Washington lost to UCLA, but still won the outright regular-season championship after California lost to Stanford on Sunday evening. Arizona, which had seen its at-large hopes get better and better recently, lost to Arizona State. The only team that helped its Selection Sunday chances was Oregon, which put a whooping on Utah.

The chances that the Pac-12 was only going to get one bid to the NCAA tournament seemed pretty low prior to the weekend, but now it’s not a far-fetched idea. To be honest, no one should feel remotely comfortable about its at-large chances heading into the conference tournament.

Let’s look at the resumes, in the correct pecking order.

California: The Golden Bears clearly have the best at-large resume of the quartet, and also went 3-0 against Oregon and Washington. The computer profile is pretty solid, and they are 6-5 against the top 100. On the other side, they have three sub-100 losses and didn’t finish with a share of the league title. The non-conference profile is also mediocre, as the best win outside of the Pac-12 was over Weber State. They probably felt safe for much of the season, but there’s still work to be done.

Washington: The Huskies don’t have a great profile, but they nonetheless won the outright regular-season championship, which will be a great bargaining chip on Selection Sunday. They are only 1-6 against the top 50 and 3-8 against the top 100. The only bad loss was Saturday’s defeat at the hands of UCLA. Overall, the Huskies did not beat a single NCAA tournament team, as the best non-league wins are over UC-Santa Barbara and Georgia State. Those are their only two non-conference wins over teams ranked in the top 200 of the RPI.

Oregon: The Ducks have slowly but surely played themselves into at-large contention over the past month, winning 11 of their last 14 games. Moreover, they thumped Washington by 25 points in early February. The RPI has moved into the top 50, as well. Now, for the bad. 19 of their 22 wins are over teams ranked outside the top 100, and they are 0-5 vs. the top 50. There’s one sub-100 loss, a home defeat to Oregon State. The non-conference profile is barren, with the best wins coming over Nebraska and UTEP. The thing that complicates their profile is Devoe Joseph, who missed the first six games of the season.

Arizona: The Wildcats are essentially finished when it comes to an at-large bid, after their terrible loss at Arizona State. It dropped them to fourth in the Pac-12, and is a sub-250 loss. The computer profile is mediocre, and 17 of their 21 wins came from outside the top 100. There is a road win at California on the ledger, but that won’t carry them to a bid. Arizona now needs to win the Pac-12 tournament if it wants a bid.

Can the Pac-12 really only get one bid? If California wins the tournament, it’s possible.

Comments

Since: Jan 21, 2007
Posted on: March 5, 2012 9:44 am
 

Pac-12 a one-bid league? It's possible

Who would thought that the Mountain West Conference will probably have more bids than the Pac-12? It's possible that the NIT is going to be stacked with at least three teams from the Pac-12. Yes, I agree that some of the talent left to play in the NBA, but it's up to these coaches to prepare the remaining/incoming underclassmen for the upcoming season(s). Obiviously, the're not doing their job they get paid for.



Since: Nov 19, 2008
Posted on: March 5, 2012 9:26 am
 

Pac-12 a one-bid league? It's possible

Well, I think that the Pac-12 should get two teams, Washington and Oregon in, but lets be honest here, that conference is absolute GARBAGE.



Since: Aug 27, 2006
Posted on: March 5, 2012 9:25 am
 

Pac-12 a one-bid league? It's possible

Statiscally speaking, UCLA is even with Washington which is why Vegas puts out the odds the way it did on their matchup. Vegas doesn't use RPI to set a line on a game, which is why they look smarter than the BCS and Selection Sunday (ever wonder why a game between a #5 and a #12 is a pick 'em during March Madness?)

The RPI was intended to get away from teams running up winning margins in order to inflate their profiles. But, what is hidden is the fact that 50% of the component is the opponent's winning percentage. This favors larger conferences whose teams run off a 11-1 or 10-2 record on the non-confernce slate and then can hover on the bubble with 9-9, 8-10 or even possibly 7-11 conference record. Then, the trick is to schedule non-conference opponents in the 150-250 range instead of the 250-350 range so as to enhance the RPI (every .01 or .001 gained is huge the way the system is set up)

Bottom line, though, is the Selection Committee uses RPI as a guideline, but if they perform due diligence, they won't rely solely on that as a measuring stick. Remember, they reached in and grabbed VCU last year and they had an outstanding run in spite of all commotion surrounding their selection.



Since: Jan 27, 2008
Posted on: March 5, 2012 8:51 am
 

Pac-12 a one-bid league? It's possible

mikesyr... i'll admit this year the pac12 has fallen off. that's because so many of their players are currently DOMINATING the NBA. the pac12 has quite a few prominent basketball schools. it'd serve you right to stay up past 10 and watch a few games now and then, unlike the rest of the biased east coast, and get your head out of the sand of philly's crap news media



Since: Aug 19, 2006
Posted on: March 5, 2012 8:48 am
 

Pac-12 a one-bid league? It's possible

MikeSyr, I never thought I'd say this, but I agree with you completely. That Colorado, the worst basketball team in the Big 12, could move to the Pac-12 and make an immediate impact, is testament to how bad this conference is. I find it funny now to think that the past offseason everyone was talking about them becoming some big superconference.



Since: Oct 7, 2009
Posted on: March 5, 2012 8:47 am
 

Pac-12 a one-bid league? It's possible

i don't consider washington's loss at UCLA a bad loss!!!! UCLA has problems no question, but from all the articles i read at the beginning of the year UCLA was to pick by a few people to win the PAC12 and contend for a conference title!!!! i am not a fan of the PAC12,  i am bias. it is tough to win on the road in the major conferences, most teams do struggle on the road!!! there was a reason UCLA was favored in that game!!! UCLA is like UCONN, the talent is there, they are just not playing as a team!!!!



Since: Apr 13, 2007
Posted on: March 5, 2012 8:17 am
 

Pac-12 a one-bid league? It's possible

'..the Pac-12 is the most (mediocre) big six conference, most years. '


Absolutely & the scenario that is occurring this year has played out in both of the past two campaigns as well more or less.  Last year, the Pac 10 was beyond mediocre & in 2010 the league likely would've been a one bid conference had Washington not won the Pac 10 tournament. 

  There hasn't really been a Pac 10 (at the time) power team since Kevin Love played in Westwood.   



Since: May 24, 2010
Posted on: March 5, 2012 6:07 am
 

Pac-12 a one-bid league? It's possible

"The only bad loss [for Washington] was Saturday’s defeat at the hands of UCLA." I'm not sure how you got that. UCLA were 4.5-point favorites in that game.
Because this year's UCLA team stinks, that they were favored (if they were, since I am taking your word for it) is even more evidence that the conference stinks.

Regardless of how many make it, if any of them get out of the first round that will at least bring some shred of dignity back to the conference and to those teams that do (if any do) since no one expects them to do anything come tournament time.

What would be funny is if some s*** team like Oregon State wins the conference tourney and no other teams get in, okay, that would be sad, not funny.




Since: Sep 28, 2008
Posted on: March 5, 2012 5:17 am
 

Pac-12 a one-bid league? It's possible

Medicority... just this year?

No sir, the Pac-12 is the most medicore big six conference, most years

At most, the Pac-12 has had three schools ever do anything, ever. That is a medicore conference. 

Look for the Pac-12 to continue to have years like this from now on until they add real basketball programs to the conference. 

 



Since: Dec 21, 2008
Posted on: March 5, 2012 2:08 am
 

Pac-12 a one-bid league? It's possible

1 team, and that's it.  Conference tournament champ, and that's it.  These teams are abysmal vs top 50 and top 100.  


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