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Blog Entry

Bye Week Road Favorite System

Posted on: October 28, 2011 2:48 pm
 
This pertains to NFL teams, coming off of their bye week, playing on the road as a favorite.  I am using closing lines to determine if they are a favorite or not.  Line must be -1 or greater, no pk'ems.  Exclude ANY games in which BOTH teams playing had their bye the week before.


As with any "system", I would suggest only using this a tool to either help reinfornce a game you like, or get you off a game you are unsure on. 


Last year I was doing some research on teams coming off their byes when I stumbled on these numbers.  I delved a little deeper this year, using some archived spreads and went back all the way to 1996. (I used covers.com and goldsheet.com to get all archived numbers)

1996-2001   8W - 7L - 0P
2002-2006  12W - 7L - 0P
2007-2010  16W - 1L - 1P

As you can see, these teams have been  hitting much more in recent years.  In week 7, we had two games that were tinkering around fitting the system.  San Diego opened as a 2pt favorite at NY Jets, however, this closed as a Pkem, or even Jets -1 in some places.  It's possible that some books still had SD as a favorite.  With the large amount of online casinos, it's hard to pinpoint an exact closing line.  According to covers lines, SD went off at -1, so I suppose we can count this as a loss.

Denver opened up at Miami as a dog, but closed at -1, and did cover.  So for arguments sake, we'll call it 1-1 in 2011 thus far.

Week 8 has two games that qualify (as of Friday afternoon)

New England -3 @ Pittsburgh
Cincinnati -3 @ Seattle

Those lines could move, and I will update this blog if they do move by Sunday. But a 3pt move in two days would be VERY odd, and probably something up that would be justify a no play anyway.


Just something to think about.  It's just a system, so for all I know, it may lose the next 20 times. But, not a bad run that it's been on.


bk
Comments

Since: Aug 21, 2006
Posted on: November 22, 2011 3:33 pm
 

Bye Week Road Favorite System

Week 12 will be the last week this season for the Bye Week System.

Two games fit at the moment.  One will be a go for sure, the other likely will unless the line drops.


Pittsburgh -10 @ KC

Houston -3.5 @ Jacksonville



Since: Aug 21, 2006
Posted on: November 18, 2011 12:06 pm
 

Bye Week Road Favorite System

Jacksonville was a pretty easy winner against the hapless Colts.  That brings the record to 5-2 on the year (I may have stated the record incorrectly wrong above).


No teams were on by last week, so no system plays. 


Next week there are two candidates.

Pittsburgh @ Kansas City -- I see no reason why the Steelers won't be a favorite.

Houston @ Jacksonville -- With all the Texans injuries, it might be a stretch that they will be laying points @ Jax.  Could depend on how the Jags play this week at Cleveland too, so you never know.



Since: Aug 21, 2006
Posted on: November 11, 2011 11:57 pm
 

Bye Week Road Favorite System

Week 9 had 2 games that qualified:

Atlanta -7 @ Indy

Green Bay -5.5 @ San Diego

Both winners, making it 3-1 on the year.


Week 10 has one game that qualifies

Jacksonville -3 @ Indy


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com