Blog Entry

SF offers Tim $100M-plus but more able on Cain

Posted on: January 22, 2012 6:31 pm
Edited on: January 24, 2012 10:46 am
 
The Giants are talking to franchise pitchers Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain about multiyear deals, but while there are early indications they'll have a decent or better chance to lock up Cain into his free-agent years, the team seems to be focusing on deals of two years or one with Lincecum after he rebuffed an offer of at least $100 million for five years.

Giants people are saying only that talks are "ongoing'' with Cain, but there is said to be a fair amount of optimism they can keep Cain on a longterm deal for under $20 million a year. Cain already took one long team-friendly deal, but Lincecum, who has so far gone year to year, seems more likely to wind up with a two-year deal now rather than sign a contract into his free-agent years.

Cain along with Cole Hamels has been seen as one of the two pitching gems of the 2012-13 free agent class, and while teams are salivating at the thought of having a shot at Cain, people familiar with the talks see him staying in San Francisco. Meanwhile, the Giants appear to be tens of millions apart on a long deal with Lincecum after he rebuffed their offer for five years and nine figures and he countered much higher than that. It is thought Lincecum seeks a deal for seven or eight years but would be content to do a one- or two-year contract if no megadeal can be accomplished now. The Giants offered Lincecum $40 million on a two-year deal, and the sides logically could wind up in the low 40s after Lincecum requested an arbitration record $21.5 million for a non free agent and the Giants countered at $17 million for 2012.

Baseball people believe Cain might be able to match Cliff Lee's $120-million as a free agent if he tested the market after the year, but word is that he badly wants to stay in San Francisco. Additionally, industry experts suggest that if Lincecum could put together two more years like his first four that two years from now as a free agent he could possibly become the game's first $200-million pitcher.

Category: MLB
Comments

Since: May 8, 2007
Posted on: January 22, 2012 7:34 pm
 

SF offers Tim $100M-plus but more able on Cain

I don't care how good Lincecum pitches over the next couple seasons, there is nobody stupid enough to give a pitcher 200 million. How could any GM possible think that taking a risk on a 8-10 contract at 20-25 million per would be a smart move? That guy is one unfortunate injury away from being a massive anchor on a payroll. 

Prince Fielder is a prime example of why I don't think this will happen. Position players are FAR more likely to stay healthy and productive over the life of a 8-10 year contract, and if they do get injured, the return to full health is far easier to achieve. Despite Prince Fielder being a dynamic talent, and only 27 years old, he's found that there simply are no teams willing to pay that kind of money. Albert Pujols may be the only player in the MLB that could land that sort of contract, and unfortunately I think the Angels are going to realize that a 10 year deal for huge money will ultimately prove to be a tough pill to swallow. Don't get me wrong, I think Pujols is the best of our generation, but I don't think he'll keep up hall of fame type numbers throughout the next decade.

So if GM's aren't willing to pay that kind of money on a long term deal for Prince Fielder, why would they want to take that risk on a pitcher? I think Lincecum will ultimately get something like 25 million annually, but I'd be beyond shocked if the deal was for more than 6-7 years. Even the mighty Yankees and Red Sox have shown they are trying to get their budget down this offseason in preparation for the rule changes, and both have pretty solid rotations as they are currently constructed.



Since: May 8, 2007
Posted on: January 22, 2012 7:33 pm
 

SF offers Tim $100M-plus but more able on Cain

I don't care how good Lincecum pitches over the next couple seasons, there is nobody stupid enough to give a pitcher 200 million. How could any GM possible think that taking a risk on a 8-10 contract at 20-25 million per would be a smart move? That guy is one unfortunate injury away from being a massive anchor on a payroll. 

Prince Fielder is a prime example of why I don't think this will happen. Position players are FAR more likely to stay healthy and productive over the life of a 8-10 year contract, and if they do get injured, the return to full health is far easier to achieve. Despite Prince Fielder being a dynamic talent, and only 27 years old, he's found that there simply are no teams willing to pay that kind of money. Albert Pujols may be the only player in the MLB that could land that sort of contract, and unfortunately I think the Angels are going to realize that a 10 year deal for huge money will ultimately prove to be a tough pill to swallow. Don't get me wrong, I think Pujols is the best of our generation, but I don't think he'll keep up hall of fame type numbers throughout the next decade.

So if GM's aren't willing to pay that kind of money on a long term deal for Prince Fielder, why would they want to take that risk on a pitcher? I think Lincecum will ultimately get something like 25 million annually, but I'd be beyond shocked if the deal was for more than 6-7 years. Even the mighty Yankees and Red Sox have shown they are trying to get their budget down this offseason in preparation for the rule changes, and both have pretty solid rotations as they are currently constructed.  



Since: Feb 16, 2007
Posted on: January 22, 2012 7:32 pm
 

SF offers Tim $100M-plus but more able on Cain

C'mon Giants.  Why wouldn't you offer Tim money equal to the top pitching contract in the league right now?   At worst, he's a top 3 pitcher in the league, at best, he's the best, and he's injury free every year.  You are going to make him a Yankee if you aren't careful. 



Since: Dec 30, 2006
Posted on: January 22, 2012 7:29 pm
 

SF offers Tim $100M-plus but more able on Cain

I hope the Giants don't go with "we can't afford both pitchers". Unless the owner is pocketing the profits this team made so much money during the Bonds years (I know it was a few years ago) that they can have a Yankee type payroll for a few years. They are also in the weak N.L. West which should get them some playoff games (and profits). If Lincecum gets another Cy Young award his jersey sales will be in the top five. He is a sellout on his road starts. The Giants better sign the freak now because if he puts together two great years the Yankees will be the only team that can afford him.



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