Blog Entry

OVERRATED!!!

Posted on: January 17, 2008 9:52 am
Edited on: January 17, 2008 10:02 am
 

Despite the fact that College basketball has one of the best ranking systems there are frequently mistakes made. Teams that look to be solid hit their plateau and suddenly drop off the charts. Other teams just over-perform, get lucky breaks, and for some reason win games they probably shouldn't. These teams are impressive for a few weeks or months, but most of it has just been coincidence, lucky breaks, or an easy schedule. Because of this you've got teams that are over-rated in the top 10, unproven, or are just flat out Top-25 Posers. Here's my Top-10 Posers in the Top 25!

Some criteria for you...

  • Unproven: Means just that, the team is just as good as their ranking, but their SOS isn't a good indicator.
  • Overrated: Teams that are ranked above their actual quality, but still deserve a Top 25 spot.
  • Poser: Teams that don't belong in the Top 25, have not proven they deserve the spot and are overrated because of it.

10.#8 Washington State: UNPROVEN! - They've gotten as far as they did in large part to a SOS ranking of #127. They'll prove their mettle against Oregon, Arizona, and round two with UCLA. They belong in the Top 10.

9.#5 Georgetown: OVERRATED! - They've only got two losses, both to Top 25 teams. They'll drop out of the Top 5 with losses to Syracuse and Marquette. They belong in the Top 10

8. #10 Texas A &M - OVERRATED! - They looked bad against Arizona giving up a huge first half lead to lose big in the second half. That Texas Tech game makes 'em look really bad. Games that will put 'em in their place: OK State, Texas, Kansas. They belong between 15-20.

7.#14 Dayton - POSER!! - If these guys are so good, how do they lose to George Mason and UMass? They'll be exposed when they lose to Xavier... twice. These guys don't belong in the Top 20.

6. #23 Rhode Island, #24 Clemson, #25 Villanova - POSERS!! - They don't belong in the Top 25, just had good weeks when the bottom of the Top 25 had bad ones. The only team that might stick around is Clemson. The other two will be gone in a less than two weeks. These guys don't belong in the Top 25.

5. #16 Vanderbilt - POSER!! - They don't have any significant wins, and they lost to a bad Kentucky team. They'll be exposed the further they get into SEC play. They deserve to be between #20-25 if they deserve to be ranked at all.

4. #12 Butler - POSER!! - Wright State? Who can be a legitimate Top 15 if they lose to Wright State and don't have any impressive wins? Cleveland State pulls off the upset this week. Can we get someone in here whose actually beat someone good?! Get 'em outta here.

3. #21 Miami (Fla.) - POSER!! - They've lost to Winthrop and Boston College, but don't have a significant win, which isn't surprising since their SOS is a whopping 156!!! They'll be exposed in a big way as they completely fall off the table in the ACC. Don't deserve to be ranked.

2. #9 Indiana - POSER!! - The only half-way decent team they've played this year is Xavier, and they lost by 15. They barely held off a bad Illinois team at home. They'll be swept by Wisconsin this year, lost @ Illinois by double digits, and promptly be kicked out of the Top 25. The highest ranked poser there is right now!

1.#2 Memphis - GOTCHA!!!

The REAL 1. #22 Arizona State - POSER!! - They're not the highest ranked, but they're the biggest posers because their schedule is largely comprimised of coincidence. The toughest games they've played this year they have won, but if they were each played 1 week later they would've lost. They beat Oregon at home but since then Oregon has been tearing everyone up and have been absolutely lights out. The next week they played Arizona, without their leading scorer. ASU doesn't belong, period.

Comments

Since: Sep 20, 2006
Posted on: January 17, 2008 9:48 pm
 

OVERRATED!!!

I think you're way off here with Butler

Apparently Cleveland State agreed with me though, seeing as how they did exactly what I said they would by beating Butler tonight.

Butler = Poser!!




Since: Sep 20, 2006
Posted on: January 17, 2008 2:16 pm
 

OVERRATED!!!

Irixsh28: I also put my criteria at the top of the message. I've got it posted below, but I also looked at record, rpi, sos, significant wins, and significant losses. Based on those criteria  Butler and Dayton are both posers. I've already explained the Dayton judgement. The wins that Butler have are completely insignificant. Those teams are decent, but don't quailify a team to make a Top 25 appearance. Each of the teams have 6 losses, and won't make an impact in their own conferences.

Some criteria for you...

  • Unproven: Means just that, the team is just as good as their ranking, but their SOS isn't a good indicator.
  • Overrated: Teams that are ranked above their actual quality, but still deserve a Top 25 spot.
  • Poser: Teams that don't belong in the Top 25, have not proven they deserve the spot and are overrated because of it.



Since: Sep 20, 2006
Posted on: January 17, 2008 1:03 pm
 

OVERRATED!!!

I think your blog might be better served if you pointed out teams that deserve to be ranked higher than the teams you mention...

There are a plethora of teams out there that deserve to be ranked either higher, or ranked period. There is enough controversy just listing the teams that are overrated or don't deserve to be in the Top 25 without listing who ought to replace them. If I were to do that I would cut the over-rated stuff, and simply do another Top 25 just like the 50 million other people that do it. This, to me, was a different twist on it that would get people talking.

what criteria you are looking at because you seem to be forgiven for one teams loss but not another???

Dayton hasn't played anyone legit outside of Pitt. In that game Pitt shot a ridiculous 29%, compared to their typical 47% it seems like they just had an off night. Some might argue that it's because Dayton clamped down on defense, considering that on the year teams shoot over 41% against Dayton, I highly doubt it. In addition to a game they just got someone at the right time,  they've lost two games that if you're a legit Top 25 team you shouldn't lose. It's not just that they lost to UMass, they've also lost to George Mason.




Since: Sep 13, 2007
Posted on: January 17, 2008 11:28 am
 

OVERRATED!!!

I think you're way off here with Butler(beat Texas tech, FSU, V. Tech and Ohio State, which is more than a lot of teams have done). URI is interesting, they beat some decent teams compared to anyone else in their part of the rankings. Dayton beat Pitt by 25, a loss to UMass isn't that bad considering BC, Houston and Syracuse have suffered the same fate. I think your blog might be better served if you pointed out teams that deserve to be ranked higher than the teams you mention and what criteria you are looking at because you seem to be forgiven for one teams loss but not another???


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