Blog Entry

Disecting the Johan Santana blockbuster trade

Posted on: January 29, 2008 8:02 pm
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Here comes another disection of a big move. Johan Santana, the sexy trade chip, is gone. He has packed his bags and is off to the big apple, which he will get to see when a Met hits a home run. He is finally gone, meaning there is not much left on the trading block other than the whole O's roster(except Nick Markakis) and most of the A's roster.

Mets take: I like this deal for the Mets. They do not give up there prized outfield prospect in 19-year old Fernando Martinez. They will give up an outfield prospect that has no room on the roster with Carlos Beltran, Moises Alou, Endy Chavez, Ryan Church, Marlon Anderson and Angel Pagan. They also give up injured but talented Phil Humber, who looks to produce as a number 3 starter at best, Deolis Guerra who is a young fireballer who can be within th 2-4 starter range and Kevin Mulvey, who could be a number 2 sometime. The Mets are getting the ace for there staff that also has Pedro Martinez, Orlando Hernandez, John Maine and Oliver Perez. Thats a pretty good bunch of pitchers. I don't think that this gives the Mets an automatic NL East winner, especially with that top notch Phillies line-up that is good top-to-bottom.

Twins take: I don't like this deal that much. The Twins were backed against a wall to get something for Johan instead of watching him leave without anything other than a 1st round pick. I think all 4 of the prospects that the Twins are getting will turn out to be fine, especially if the future 5 for the Twins turns out to be Liriano, Slowey, Mulvey, Guerra and Bonser/Humber. I still prefer this deal for the mets because of 1 player: Fernando Martinez. If F-Mart would have been thrown in, this deal quickly becomes a success for the Twins. Gomez will most likely start in the majors for the Twins with Michael Cuddyer and Craig Monroe in the other spots and Delmon Young getting the DH nod.

Pre-Season Winner: New York Mets

Johan Santana 2008 projected stats: 16-6/ 3.20 ERA/ 238-48 K-BB

Phil Humber 2008 Projected stats: 1-4/ 3.28 ERA/ 71-32 K-BB

Carlos Gomez 2008 Projected stats: 132 G/ .306 BA/ 15 HR/ 80 RBI

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Comments

Since: Dec 30, 2006
Posted on: January 31, 2008 5:12 am
 

Disecting the Johan Santana blockbuster trade

Define blockbuster? 

Well, the fact that the best pitcher in the MLB just got traded after 3 monthes of non-stop rumors.

Funny thing is, the Mets offered this package about 3 monthes ago.




Since: Jan 20, 2007
Posted on: January 30, 2008 11:56 am
 

Disecting the Johan Santana blockbuster trade

You guys need to realize the reason humber looked bad in that last start was because he hadnt pitched in a month. He also plays in a Hitter's League with hitter's parks. That makes your ERA high. I still think they will end up fine.



Since: Sep 30, 2007
Posted on: January 30, 2008 8:59 am
 

Disecting the Johan Santana blockbuster trade

I've got to say that I agree w/ Banned Poster.  The Athletics' package for Dan Haren was far more compelling than that received for Johan Santana by the Twins.  The proposed one for Erik Bedard, although we don't entirely know what it is, blows this one away. 

The reality, though, is that the Twins really don't have a ton to sell here.  Last year, they had two seasons of Santana to sell, which had a lot of value.  This year, it's one season and you have to commit to another 6 or 7 years at an absurd cost before the season even starts. 

The only way the Twins come out well in this is:

1) If Guerra reaches his considerable potential.  Right now, he looks like a closer.  Maybe that's enough.

2) Mulvey reaches his max potential as a #3 starter.  That's basically slightly above league average stats in some years, slightly below in bad.

3) Phil Humber actually turns out to be good enough to survive in the majors.  I'm not even as fond of Humber as BP seems to be.  Humber, to me, looks like a marginal 5th starter, unless he regains the velocity he lost.

4) If Gomez turns around and fully develops plate discipline.  Given the Twins history in this regard, I highly doubt it.

That's a lot of ifs.  You'd need two of those to come true, at a minimum, to make this seem like a good trade for the Twins down the road.  The Ellsbury, Masterson, Bowden, and Lowrie offer so badly blows this one away, it's scary.



Since: Jan 28, 2008
Posted on: January 30, 2008 8:05 am
 

Disecting the Johan Santana blockbuster trade

Define blockbuster?  This aint it, as of right now its only one-sided.



Since: Nov 14, 2006
Posted on: January 30, 2008 4:36 am
 

Disecting the Johan Santana blockbuster trade

Dragon, I hate to be critical, but I just don't agree much with your post other than the fact that the Mets won this deal.

First off, those projected numbers seem way off to me.....

With Santana, I think you can expect his era to be well under three in the National League. Not only does he move to an easier league, but the parks in the NL East are spacious as well. Not to mention, before 2007, Santana put together 3 consecutive seasons where his era was under 3 in the AL. I honestly think his projection should be 20-6, 2.70 era.

Secondly, Gomez has never shown any sort of power in the minors. What makes you think he can jack out 15? The most he ever had in the minors was 8 and that was 3 years ago when he was in single A ball. In addition, I highly doubt his batting average will be .306. If it is, the Twins are lucky. Again, he's never hit higher than .286 in a single season. So....without power and with a mediocre average, there is no way Gomez will get 80 RBI's (especially considering the fact that he'll either leadoff or bat 9th which aren't RBI spots). The one thing you can expect from Gomez is stolen bases in which I think he'll get around 30-40.

Lastly, I'm assuming you can't be projecting Humber as a starter here, because there is no chance his era would be that low (as a starter, I expect it around 5), his k/BB be over 2, and him still lose ballgames. However, I think it might be premature to think of Humber as a reliever at this point.

I think all 4 of the prospects that the Twins are getting will turn out to be fineI'm not so confident as you. Humber hasn't really been the same pitcher since he injured his arm.I highly doubt he'll turn into anything more than a 5th starter. As for Mulvey, I still don't see to high of upside for him (another 4th starter). Meanwhile, Guerra has a long way to go until he gets to the majors. He is only 18 years old and he was already dealing with shoulder tendinitus last season and posted an era above 4 in single A ball.

Plain and simple, it's a disappointing return for the Twins. I'd even argue that the deal the A's got for Dan Haren was better than this. Uggh.

Gomez will most likely start in the majors for the Twins with and in the other spots and getting the DH nod.Monroe sucks. There is absolutely no chance he starts everyday for the Twins. He has issues hitting right handed pitchers, so at most he would just be a platoon guy against lefties. I expect the Twins to have Cuddyer in left, Gomez in center, and Young in right with Jason Kubel getting the DH spot.

especially if the future 5 for the Twins turns out to be Liriano, Slowey, Mulvey, Guerra and Bonser/Humber.This isn't a great future rotation though.
  • Liriano - ace potential if fully healthy
  • Slowey - needs to not throw every pitch down the pipe (number 3 pitcher at best)
  • Mulvery - number 4 pitcher at best
  • Guerra - It will be 4-5 years until we see him. Some of these others may be gone.
  • Bonser - major control issues. Belongs in the bullpen.
  • Humber - number 4 pitcher at best.


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