Blog Entry

Skip Phat Albert this year?

Posted on: February 28, 2008 10:12 pm
 

The top of the draft is where the marquee players are grabbed. While I do not think the first round is the most important and think teams are built from the middle type rounds. Not many players are ones who can help you in every category, therefore balanced solid players are very important in my opinon.

One of these fantasy studs has been Albert Pujols for a couple of years now. He is incredibly consistent and hits plenty of HRs, gets tons of RBI, and has a good BA. The only thing he really doesn't do is steal bases. But I for one am avoiding him like the plague this year.

Reasons to avoid Albert Pujols:

1. Terrible team with no lineup protection.

2. Injury? He appears to have an injury to his elbow or shoulder or something. This will keep him out of some games, and will probably lower his production when he does play.

3. He is not on a good team and if they get out of the race (which is possible with that team) they may shut down Albert if he has some kind of injury.

4. Pujols has been a perennial top 5 pick, and you cannot risk a top pick on a guy with this many questions.

5. Position: Albert plays 1B, and there are plenty of solid 1B out there, therefore it is not necessary to risk the pick on him.

I do not think that Albert is done as a player or anything, but this is not his season in my opinion. He is still a very good player, but this is the year I think his numbers slip, making him unworthy of a first round selection.

Thoughts?

Category: MLB
Comments

Since: Oct 3, 2006
Posted on: March 28, 2008 11:08 pm
 

Skip Phat Albert this year?

Sorry Boyd didn't see this post before today.

It looks like you have a very good team, as J. Roll and Reyes are top players. You have 2 of the best 3 SS in the game. You have a couple of options, trade one of them and get back a top pitcher, or keep them both and play one at SS and one at U.

Personally I would keep them both and ride them out with the offense. Your pitching is a little weak Francisco Liriano was just sent down to the minors for a couple of rehab starts. Pitching is tough to find, but you can go week by week and pick up pitchers with good matchups.

Your team looks like it can compete and have a chance to win, good luck man.




Since: Feb 9, 2007
Posted on: March 22, 2008 3:53 pm
 

Thoughts on my draft?

BTB you seem to know whats going on in the fantasy baseball world, was hoping you could give me some insight into my draft results. Im torn should I keep both Reyes and Rollins or trade for a pitcher?

Jimmy Rollins (Ss)

Jose Reyes (ss)

Vlademire Guerero (of)

Alfonso Soriano (of)

Carlos Lee (of)

Garrrett Atkins (3b)

Russell Martin (c)

Fausto Carmona (P)

Carlos Guillen (1b)

Brad Penny (P)

Chris Young (P)

Fransisco Lirano (P)

Jared Weaver

Placido Polanco

Corey Hart, and Joba Chamberlin

 

 




Since: Oct 3, 2006
Posted on: March 2, 2008 12:15 am
 

Skip Phat Albert this year?

The argument is not just terrible team, but terrible lineup. Can you name someone that is going to protect him in that lineup? Why would any team pitch to him with Chris Duncan behind him? Rick Ankiel is someone that makes you throw to Pujols. Real life baseball says try to make him chase, and if you get behind put him on base, and take your chances with the bum behind him.

Of course every player has the risk of getting injured, so why take a guy who is starting out as damaged goods? His manager and the team seem pretty worried about it...why aren't you?

The combination of 1 and 2 makes number 3 a concern.

Position scarcity is certainly an issue when drafting a fantasy team. Not many good 2B out there and the dropoff from the top couple is pretty significant. Since 1B is one of the deepest position it is not necessary to risk the pick on Pujols.

I have never drafted Albert Pujols (therefore no hard feelings, in fact I said I think he is a great player, but not one I want on my fantasy team). I just happent to think that Albert Pujols will not perform anywhere near a top pick this season, which is why I would avoid him. It is isn't about feelings, a guy who is injured before the season and doesn't have any lineup protection is not a top pick in my opinion.

Each player you select is a risk, so why take one that has factors which point to a breakdown?




Since: Jan 19, 2008
Posted on: February 29, 2008 6:50 pm
 

Skip Phat Albert this year?

#1 Terrible team, there are plenty, terrible team with a superstar, I'll draft the superstar every time.

#2 Injury risk, who isn't? If your not hurt now you soon will be...with a microscopic few not getting hurt.

#3 Is not #3 at all, you already said terrible team and injury risk.....

#4 You can't risk a top pick on a guy with that many questions?  You only really give 2 reasons wich can apply to many top players.

#5 Position argument, thats just an assesment from year to year to the strengths of each position.

My take:

I believe your true argument is based on you drafting Albert last year, and him not carring your team like you thought he would. This inturn upset you and now you will let this hamper your desicion on feeling not inteligence. Well that's FANTASY your never quite sure what your going to get. You do your studying and make the best chioce for the spot and strength of position, and hope your top guys stay healthy and a few of your sleepers pan out to have top production.

ie: Going into last years fantasy season I had the tenth pick out of twelve, I was prepared to take two top outfielders at 10th and 15th pick. When it came to my pick at ten my whole draft took a different turn because there sat "A-Rod" and I had to take him. Everyone was afraid of his situation heading into the season.

ie: Before my 05' draft everyone was afraid of the situation surrounding Soriano, I capitalized and got him in the beginning of the third round.

Be smart with your top picks....not afraid of your top picks...and don't put to much personal feelings into them!

 




Since: Jan 19, 2008
Posted on: February 29, 2008 6:49 pm
 

Skip Phat Albert this year?

#1 Terrible team, there are plenty, terrible team with a superstar, I'll draft the superstar every time.

#2 Injury risk, who isn't? If your not hurt now you soon will be...with a microscopic few not getting hurt.

#3 Is not #3 at all, you already said terrible team and injury risk.....

#4 You can't risk a top pick on a guy with that many questions?  You only really give 2 reasons wich can apply to many top players.

#5 Position argument, thats just an assesment from year to year to the strengths of each position.

My take:

I believe your true argument is based on you drafting Albert last year, and him not carring your team like you thought he would. This inturn upset you and now you will let this hamper your desicion on feeling not inteligence. Well that's FANTASY your never quite sure what your going to get. You do your studying and make the best chioce for the spot and strength of position, and hope your top guys stay healthy and a few of your sleepers pan out to have top production.

ie: Going into last years fantasy season I had the tenth pick out of twelve, I was prepared to take two top outfielders at 10th and 15th pick. When it came to my pick at ten my whole draft took a different turn because there sat "A-Rod" and I had to take him. Everyone was afraid of his situation heading into the season.

ie: Before my 05' draft everyone was afraid of the situation surrounding Soriano, I capitalized and got him in the beginning of the third round.

Be smart with your top picks....not afraid of your top picks...and don't put to much personal feelings into them!

 




Since: Oct 3, 2006
Posted on: February 29, 2008 3:49 pm
 

Skip Phat Albert this year?

Lineup protection is overrated.

To a point, but look who he lost from his team even from last year. He lost his leadoff man in David Eckstein and Jim Edmonds, along with Scott Rolen. He replaced that with Troy Glaus...yikes.

Chris Duncan and Rick Ankiel are not terrible hitters, but a lot of teams will certainly pitch around Albert Pujols to get to those guys. Not a good lineup at all. Not a lot of guys on base to drive in...numbers have to go down.

The injury appears to have some concerned. From Rotoworld:

The Cardinals plan to be cautious with Albert Pujols' balky elbow this spring, keeping a close eye on how hard he throws the ball.

"We'll definitely monitor it," Manager Tony La Russa said Saturday. "Talking to the trainers this morning one of the biggest issues will be throwing so we'll be on the careful side of really firing it. He could make a swing that could tweak it, too. It's one of those deals." Pujols said it didn't make sense to have a procedure to clean up the elbow, because the problem is related to the ligament. "If it blows out it's going to blow out," said a blase sounding Pujols. His owners, risking a mid first round pick on him, can't afford to be that blase. With this injury that appears to be worried about by his manager, the team, and himself if the team is out of the race, why not shut him down, and try to make him fully healthy for next year? The point here being that he could probably play through the injury, but would not if his team had no shot of doing anything this year. First base is deep if you are to ask me. Ryan Howard, David Ortiz (who will play enough interleague games to qualify at 1B), Travis Hafner (same as with Big Papi), Adrian Gonzalez (underrated), Prince Fielder, Derek Lee, Carlos Pena are all comprable 1B. The next tier is not really that far behind with low risk/high reward guys like Paul Konerko (late pick), Jim Thome, and Carlos Delgado are all in this category. 1B is one of the deeper positions in Fantasy baseball. 3B is not really that deep if you ask me. A-Rod, David Wright, Miguel Cabrera, and Aramis Ramirez are about the best you are going to get, certainly not as deep as 1B in my opinion. SS is a position that has a coulpe of great ones (Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins). The rest of the guys are not that great, not a lot of depth there. I understand the counterpoints, but just think Pujols is a huge risk this year, and I would not consider taking him. The point about someone getting hit by a truck is just ridiculious. Of course inherent risks are taken everyday but I would guess that a guy with a messed up elbow probably a litlte bigger risk than most, especially with the high pick it will liekly take to select him. That point is taken to the extreme, which often makes points ineffective.



Since: Oct 25, 2007
Posted on: February 29, 2008 3:03 pm
 

Skip Phat Albert this year?

1. Terrible team with no lineup protection.

- Terrible team is true, but if that stopped you from drafting Jeff Bagwell during his age 28 season in 1996, you were duped.  The Pirates were the worst offense in the league in 2006, but Jason Bay went .286/.396/.532 with 35 HR, 109 RBI, and 101 Runs.  Lineup protection is overrated, and besides, nearly every team has some degree of protection for its #3 hitter, and that goes for Pujols as well.

2. Injury? He appears to have an injury to his elbow or shoulder or something. This will keep him out of some games, and will probably lower his production when he does play. 

- Yes, it's a risk.  Is it a risk greater than that you'd take by drafting someone less reliable to post solid numbers?  Not at all.

3. He is not on a good team and if they get out of the race (which is possible with that team) they may shut down Albert if he has some kind of injury.

- This is really just an extension of #2.  Down to 4 reasons to skip Phat Albert this year, I guess.  Don't know what the team's record has to do with it.  The Cubs shut Kerry Wood down in 1998 on their way to the playoffs.  It's injuries that shut players down, and injuries alone.  If Pujols can get out there, he'll get out there.

4. Pujols has been a perennial top 5 pick, and you cannot risk a top pick on a guy with this many questions.

- This is begging the question, to be sure.  Let's try to wrap our minds around this logic:
Guy 1: Don't take Pujols in the top 5.
Guy 2: Why?
Guy 1: Well, for several reasons.
Guy 2: Ok, let's hear one.
Guy 1: Well, he's a risk and that's a valuable pick.
Guy 2: Uh, that's not a reason.  That's just another way of saying "Don't take Pujols in the top 5."  Your reasoning behind the argument can't be the argument itself.  Besides, every pick is a risk.  Jake Peavy might get hit by a truck tomorrow.  A meteorite might crush Joba Chamberlain.  Every pick is a risk.

Basically, you're using a conclusion sentence as one of your reasons.  So really, we're down to 3 reasons not to pick Albert Pujols.

5. Position: Albert plays 1B, and there are plenty of solid 1B out there, therefore it is not necessary to risk the pick on him.

- This is true, and it means you should take that into account.  However, 3B is deeper, SS is more superstar-heavy, and OF is equally distributed with talent.  1B isn't the position of strength it used to be, especially since David Ortiz and Travis Hafner are probably not eligible there in most formats.  If you want to pat yourself on the back when Pujols has to take a few days off in July, and brag to the league, "Well at least Conor Jackson is starting tonight!" then go right ahead.

Yes, there's the chance his numbers slip - there's ALWAYS that chance - and you may very be right.  But I think it's much more likely to slip due to a fluctuation in BABIP or some errant winds in Busch Stadium than due to injury issues.  I don't think many people are that worried about it within the Cards organization, and I still don't understand where the super-depth at 1B is supposed to be coming from.  Paul Konerko?



Haha, went a little FJM on ya there.  No harm meant.  Just pointing out some cases of opposite situations from what you depicted.  Your points are important for people to remember going into drafts, but I think the rest of the picture is important too.


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