Blog Entry

Tuesday Afternoon MOCKumentary

Posted on: June 17, 2008 4:57 pm
 
Long time, no blog.

I owe you guys one from my last blog -- players not in the Top 200 who should be. I will attempt to get to that in a bit.

But first ...

I'm planning to do at least one mock draft every Tuesday afternoon between now and September where I test the QB-WR draft theory outlined in the upcoming CBSSports.com/Pro Football Weekly Fantasy Football Preview Magazine (the story is on page 20). By the way, the magazine will be on newsstands soon and promises to be our best -- and most controversial -- magazine ever.

I picked third overall in today's draft with two auto pickers.

Round 1: Normally I'd pick a running back here, but since I'm testing out the theory, Peyton Manning was my pick. Tom Brady went first overall. LT was second. Randy Moss was fourth to a drafter who was also testing out a theory. I think it's safe to assume all four of these players will be first-round picks in most leagues, just not this close to the front of a draft.

Round 2: My theory goes out the window as the 11 gracious souls in the mock draft with me let Clinton Portis fall to me. I couldn't pass on him, even in a fake draft. The receivers were flying off the board, too.

Round 3: Took the best receiver left in T.J. Houshmandzadeh.

Round 4: While the RB pickings are far from slim, I wanted to stick to my theory. Greg Jennings was my pick.

Round 5: Swiped Roy Williams with the plan that I wouldn't draft another receiver for the rest of this draft.

Round 6: Selvin Young

Round 7: Matt Forte

Round 8: Jerious Norwood

Round 9: Ryan Torain (loved this pick here, especially considering Selvin Young three rounds earlier)

Round 10: Leon Washington (if this were a REAL draft, I might have gone WR here instead)

Round 11: Todd Heap. Too good to pass on this late at a position I neeeded to fill.

Round 12: Shaun Alexander. Just in case.

Round 13: Patriots DST

Round 14: Jason Hanson. I'm drafting Hanson in all leagues this year strictly because the Lions play the Falcons in Week 1. I'll go PK by committee thereafter.

We'll do it again next Tuesday. Email me at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com if you want to draft with me.



Let's see what you guys had to say about our Top 200, and who is out ...

- Broncofan46 put in a vote for Pierre Thomas of the Saints, citing that Deuce McAllister is no lock to play 16 games (Saintly1 also wants to see Thomas on the list). I liked Thomas a lot last year and could see him filling in for Deuce if the veteran can't stay healthy, but I've been in enough drafts to know that he's not getting drafted. Definitely a player who will be taken off the waiver wire in leagues this year.

- Broncofan46 also liked the Eagles DST. I'd like to see them slow down the run first. The additions of Asante Samuel and DeSean Jackson do make it a much more appealing unit than we're giving them credit for, though.

- Scoofer, a regular commentator on my blog, didn't like us leaving off Cadillac Williams. Until Williams shows the world that he can play, he shouldn't be drafted. There's still a chance that he doesn't play in 2008 even though Bucs' coach Jon Gruden is calling his recovery from a torn patellar tendon "miraculous." What will be miraculous is if Williams posts a 100-yard game in '08. Again, someone I doubt people will draft by and large this summer.

-Dcoate put in a vote for Texans rookie RB Steve Slaton, suggesting that Ahman Green and Chris Brown aren't long for playing regularly. I liked Slaton a lot as a junior but not as a senior, and I think he's more of a project pick for the Texans than anything else. I'm not sure if he's a fit for their offense right now. Chris Taylor might attempt to knock off Slaton's spot on the depth chart ... not to mention Green and Brown's. Neither Slaton nor Taylor are worth a top-200 pick.

- Triblade, a proud Michigan State Spartan, chimed in with Devin Thomas with Washington. I realize that Thomas had a solid junior year at school and has a lot of attributes for success, but rookie receivers are tough to bet on. The West Coast offense is tough enough to understand for veterans, and I think that it'll be even harder for Thomas. I think he'll make some nice grabs in 2008, but not be draftable in seasonal leagues.

- Lastly, for the couple of people who suggested Terry Glenn ... come on ...





Comments

Since: Nov 13, 2007
Posted on: June 18, 2008 9:08 pm
 

Tuesday Afternoon MOCKumentary

I'm not sure what that theory is you're testing, but I don't ever take a QB in round 1 and certainly not in the top 5, EVER.  As a matter of fact, i always am one of the last guys to take a QB in both my leagues, then I usually take 2 that I can play weekly match-ups with. Last year in my 12-team league I took Romo in round 7, and Roethlisberger in Round 8.   In my 10 team league I took Kitna in round 10 and Roethlisberger in round 11 (also picked up Derrick Anderson after Week 1). 

If I get a top 5 pick, that usually means I'm getting a stud RB. I follow that up with 2 stud WRs in rounds 2 & 3. Round 4 another RB or the top TE, depending on the flow of the draft. Round 5-6 are usually RBs and Wrs or a TE if a didn't get the top TE. Then I start looking QB. This works for me every year.

If I pick in the lower end of a draft, I still don't take a QB in the first round, but I don't usually end up going back to back WRs in round 2 and 3 either.

Unless you play in leagues where you start 2 QBs, I don't see the value in drafting a QB in round 1 or even 2 for that matter. Yes, Tom Brady was the highest scoring player in both my leagues.  There are just too many QBs out there compared to RBs and WRs.




Since: Jul 19, 2007
Posted on: June 18, 2008 11:11 am
 

Tuesday Afternoon MOCKumentary

I'm still interested in hearing your rebuttal on Warner, otherwise I expect to see him in the next top 200!



Since: Apr 21, 2008
Posted on: June 18, 2008 11:03 am
 

Tuesday Afternoon MOCKumentary

I still think at 6'2 Devin Thomas has the speed, size and hands to have a good chance of breaking up the Lollipop Guild WR Corps that is Moss and Randle-El. I love the versatility that those two guys bring to the field, but they get banged up quick.

I think when you factor in a talented o-line (Samuels, Rabach and Jansen can hold up against any o-line in the league), a quarterback ready to break out in Jason Campbell, and a potential top 5 running back in Clinton Protis, the recipe is there for a Marques Colston like rookie season for the former Spartan wide receiver.

And now, let me take my green and white glasses off...

A new head coach for the team, new offensive scheme, rookie wide receivers being long shots, only one productive college season...I definitely see your point.

As for the Mock Draft, Roy Williams AFTER Greg Jennings? Is that more an indictment of the player or the guy throwing to the player? Aaron Rodgers, other than the fact we know he can grow sweet facial hair with magical powers, is a complete unknown. I would rather have the guy playing indoors, with the same QB for the last three seasons, than the guy that has Gandalf the Packer throwing to him.

 




Since: Dec 19, 2006
Posted on: June 17, 2008 8:28 pm
 

Tuesday Afternoon MOCKumentary

I'll be sure to get the magazine this weekend, so I can see this article that is so controversial. But what I'm assuming is that you lay off a RB in the first few rounds (unless the value is there, like Portis), then I TOTALLY agree with this. Because if you are picking in the tail end of round 1, and Peyton Manning is staring you in the face, and the only RBs there are like Ryan Grant, Marshawn Lynch, etc., then you have to take Manning. Not a shot against those RBs but they won't even compare to Manning in total points (unless you get 4 pts per TD pass. Then I could understand Lynch.) So I'm pretty sure this theory is what I have been going by forever in my fantasy football career. (The year Peyton Manning had the 49 TDs, I took him first overall, and was heckled at so much. I ended up losing by like 7 points in the championship game, mostly b/c I got good value RBs. The hecklers were the guys that missed the fantasy postseason.)

Anyway, onto the draft - like the Manning pick. A-Pete is an injury risk, the Rams O-Line is too shake for Jackson, and Moss there is just dumb. Sorry, but no WR deserves to go top 10, b/c you have such a big risk of getting 1 or 2 points in a week, and a big week will only be like 20. A big week for a QB will be easily over 30.
Portis is a steal - nobody that talented deserves to slip that much. Then again, I said that about Shaun Alexander last year in late round 1 and it put me in the cellar....
TJ is nice since he's in a contract year. I just hope if Chad Johnson leaves, he won't become a Peerless Price-esque player and play terribly as a #1 WR. I doubt it though. But if Reggie Wayne was available - then you are crazy. Actually - take that back - if Randy Moss went 4th overall then there's no way Wayne fell out of round 1. Having Peyton and Wayne would be like cheating though.
Jennings is OK - Actually, I hate it. Sorry, but QB controversy + injury prone + good talent= a round 6 pick. It just seems too early for him.
Roy Williams - nice pick. A stable WR would be better with 2 injury prone ones on your team already, but he's fine value.
Selvin Young & Matt Forte - I bet one of these guys will be a gold mine. Chicago has an underrated O-line, although it's not great. And Denver will always produce a great running game, but will Young be the beneficiary? Only Mike Shanahan knows. And he'll change his mind in about 7 minutes.
Norwood, Torain, Washington - if these guys find a way to get carries - HUGE steal. If not, then only a bye week replacement.
Heap - Why not? He's productive when he plays, but key words: WHEN HE PLAYS. But there are always fine TEs available on the WW.
Shaun - worth the risk in round 12.
Pats DST - NICE value. They get easy matchups with that division, and are a top notch D.
Hanson - whatever. He's a kicker, so I automatically don't care. I just hope he doesn't have to take care of his grandkids instead of playing.

So I guess this is a good draft, although if you get hit by a few injuries, you're dead. But it's a mock draft, so it won't even matter.


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com