Blog Entry

NCAA Tournament Projections

Posted on: January 22, 2008 2:48 am
Edited on: January 22, 2008 11:43 pm
Here are my NCAA Tournament Projections for the Week of January 21 (updated for games through Sunday). I will update them every week (if I have a chance to).

America East (1)

Current Leader: Binghamton
Conference Champ: Vermont
At-large: none
Bubble Watch: none

Binghamton currently leads the conference with a 4-2 record. They are tied with Albany and Maryland-Baltimore County, but they beat both of them. Vermont has been a powerhouse in this conference over the last few years. Expect them to make a run.

ACC (4)

Current Leader: Duke
Conference Champ: North Carolina
At-large: Duke, Clemson, Miami
Bubble Watch: North Carolina State, Boston College, Maryland, Virginia

The ACC is a mess right now. North Carolina and Duke seem to be locks right now. Clemson is close to lock status, and Miami is falling fast after an 11-0 start (not including non-Division I games).

Atlantic 10 (3)

Current Leader: Xavier
Conference Champ: Dayton
At-large: Dayton, Massachusetts
Bubble Watch: Rhode Island, St. Joseph's, Charlotte

This league is returning to the glory days of the early 2000's. Xavier, Dayton, and Massachusetts are currently locks to get in. The A-10 looks like a 3-bid league right now with a chance at 4-5.

Atlantic Sun (1)

Current Leader: Jacksonville
Conference Champ: Belmont
At-large: none
Bubble Watch: none

Belmont is consistently at the top of this league. They have wins at Cincinnati and at Alabama.

Big 12 (6)

Current Leader: Kansas/Baylor
Conference Champ: Kansas
At-large: Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma
Bubble Watch: Missouri, Nebraska

Kansas is undefeated at 3-0 in conference play and 18-0 overall. The Jayhawks go to Manhattan to play the Wildcats on January 30, where Kansas State looks for their first home win over the Jayhawks since 1983.

Big East (7)

Current Leader: Georgetown
Conference Champ: Georgetown
At-large: Pittsburgh, Marquette, Villanova, West Virginia, Louisville, Notre Dame
Bubble Watch: Providence, Connecticut, Syracuse, Seton Hall

The Big East has the potential to get 8-9 bids this year. Louisville is on the rise, while Marquette cannot seem to win a road game anymore.

Big Sky (1)

Current Leader: Northern Arizona
Conference Champ: Northern Arizona
At-large: none
Bubble Watch: none

Senior forward Kyle Landry is averaging 17 points and 9 rebounds per game for the Lumberjacks. Northern Arizona is 5-1 in conference play.

Big South (1)

Current Leader: UNC-Asheville
Conference Champ: Winthrop
At-large: none
Bubble Watch: none

Winthrop will make a run at the Big South like they always do.

Big Ten (4)

Current Leader: Indiana/Wisconsin
Conference Champ: Indiana
At-large: Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue
Bubble Watch: Ohio State, Minnesota

The Big Ten is not as strong as it usually is. Indiana and Wisconsin are tied atop the standings with a 5-0 conference mark.

Big West (1)

Current Leader: Cal-State Northridge
Conference Champ: Cal-State Northridge
At-large: none
Bubble Watch: none

Cal-State Northridge is 5-0 in Big West play. They have a win at current Horizon League leader Cleveland State.

Colonial (2)

Current Leader: Virginia Commonwealth
Conference Champ: Virginia Commonwealth
At-large: George Mason
Bubble Watch: none

This league is not as strong is it usually is. Expect VCU and George Mason to be in the field in March.

Conference USA (1)

Current Leader: Memphis
Conference Champ: Memphis
At-large: none
Bubble Watch: Houston, UAB

Conference USA is averaging only 1.5 bids since they lost Marquette, Louisville, Cincinnati, DePaul, Charlotte and Saint Louis. Assuming Memphis wins the conference tournament, this seems to be a one-bid league.

Horizon League (1)

Current Leader: Cleveland State
Conference Champ: Butler
At-large: none
Bubble Watch: Cleveland State

Butler is currently 6-2 in the conference. Cleveland State has wins at Florida State, at South Florida and Butler.

*Independents (0)

Current Leader: Chicago State
Conference Champ: Texas-Pan American
At-large: none
Bubble Watch: none

*The Independents do not get an automatic bid.

Nobody from this league will ever get in the field.

**Ivy (1)

Current Leader: Cornell/Yale
Conference Champ: Cornell
At-large: none
Bubble Watch: none

**The Ivy league does not have a conference tournament. The regular season champion gets the automatic bid.

Cornell is currently the only Ivy League team with a winning record.

Metro Atlantic (1)

Current Leader: Siena
Conference Champ: Siena
At-large: none
Bubble Watch: none

This league will be a one-bid league. Siena has a win over Stanford (Stanford did not have Brook Lopez that game).

Mid-American (1)

Current Leader: Akron
Conference Champ: Kent State
At-large: none
Bubble Watch: Akron

Akron is currently 4-0 in the MAC. They are looking to get in the field this year after being left out of the NCAA Tournament (and the NIT) last year with 26 wins. Kent State has wins over Illinois State, Saint Louis, George Mason and Cleveland State. Akron plays at Kent State on Wednesday.

Mid-Eastern (1)

Current Leader: Hampton
Conference Champ: Hampton
At-large: none
Bubble Watch: none

Hampton is 4-0 in the MEAC. Senior guard Rashad West is averaging 18.2 points per game. They have a win over VCU on their resume.

Missouri Valley (2)

Current Leader: Drake
Conference Champ: Creighton
At-large: Drake
Bubble Watch: Illinois State

This league is also down from previous years. Creighton's experience will prove to be too much for the Bulldogs. Drake is 7-0 in league play.

Mountain West (2)

Current Leader: San Diego State
Conference Champ: BYU
At-large: New Mexico
Bubble Watch: UNLV, San Diego State

BYU is 6-4 in their last 10 after starting off 7-1. This league usually gets multiple bids, and it looks like they are going to get at least 2.

Northeast (1)

Current Leader: Quinnipiac
Conference Champ: Robert Morris
At-large: none
Bubble Watch: none

The winner of this league will most likely play in the play-in game. Robert Morris has a win over Boston College in Chestnut Hill.

Ohio Valley (1)

Current Leader: Austin Peay
Conference Champ: Austin Peay
At-large: none
Bubble Watch: none

The Governors beat Belmont twice this season. They are 8-1 in the Ohio Valley (12-7 overall).

Pac-10 (7)

Current Leader: UCLA/Arizona State
Conference Champ: UCLA
At-large: Washington State, Stanford, Oregon, Arizona State, Arizona, Southern Cal
Bubble Watch: California

Washington State is also tied for the conference lead, but they would lose the tiebreaker (loss to UCLA). The Pac-10 is the strongest conference in the nation, and they should get at least 6 teams (possibly 7) in the NCAA Tournament. UCLA beat Washington State earlier this season.

Patriot (1)

Current Leader: Lafayette/Bucknell
Conference Champ: Bucknell
At-large: none
Bubble Watch: none

Bucknell usually ends up winning this fairly weak conference.

SEC (6)

Current Leader: Mississippi State
Conference Champ: Tennessee
At-large: Mississippi, Vanderbilt, Florida, Mississippi State, Arkansas
Bubble Watch: none

Tennessee is 3-0 in conference play, but Mississippi State leads the conference with a 4-0 conference record. Tennessee has road wins over West Virginia, Xavier and Gonzaga. They also beat Ohio State at home.

Southern (1)

Current Leader: Davidson
Conference Champ: Davidson
At-large: none
Bubble Watch: none

Davidson sits atop the Southern Conference with an 8-0 conference record. They really challenged themselves in the non-conference, but were unable to notch a marquee win. They are led by sophomore guard Stephen Curry, who is 5th in the nation in scoring (23.8 PPG).

Southland (1)

Current Leader: Stephen F. Austin/Northwestern State
Conference Champ: Sam Houston State
At-large: none
Bubble Watch: Stephen F. Austin

This league can get two bids if both Stephen F. Austin and Sam Houston State win every game (except when they face each other). SFA has a win at Oklahoma. Sam Houston State has wins over Texas Tech and Saint Louis (road).

Summit League (1)

Current Leader: Oral Roberts
Conference Champ: Oral Roberts
At-large: none
Bubble Watch: none

This league, once called the Mid-Continent Conference, is also a perennial one-bid league. Oral Roberts usually gets this bid, and I expect it no different this year. They have a win at Oklahoma State. Oral Roberts is currently 7-0 in league play.

SWAC (1)

Current Leader: Alabama State
Conference Champ: Alabama State
At-large: none
Bubble Watch: none

This league is probably the worst conference in the nation. Alabama State currently leads the SWAC with a 4-1 conference record. They are also the only team in the conference with a winning record.

Sun Belt (1)

Current Leader: South Alabama
Conference Champ: Western Kentucky
At-large: none
Bubble Watch: South Alabama

Even though South Alabama beat Western Kentucky, expect Western Kentucky to win this conference. This conference is one of the most underrated conferences in the nation. New Orleans can move into the bubble conversation with wins over Western Kentucky and at Florida International this week.

WAC (1)

Current Leader: Utah State
Conference Champ: Utah State
At-large: none
Bubble Watch: none

This league has been a major disappointment this season. At the beginning of the year, it looked like the WAC would get 2 bids (Utah State and New Mexico State). Utah State has a 4-0 conference record.

West Coast (2)

Current Leader: Gonzaga/St. Mary's (CA)
Conference Champ: Gonzaga
At-large: St. Mary's (CA)
Bubble Watch: none

Gonzaga and St. Mary's are tied atop the WCC with a 3-0 conference record. Gonzaga is a perennial contender in this conference, and St. Mary's is coming along also. Gonzaga plays at St. Mary's on February 4.

Last 4 in:

62. Southern Cal
63. Arkansas
64. New Mexico
65. George Mason

Last 4 out:

66. Rhode Island
67. Ohio State
68. Providence
69. Connecticut

Next 4 out:

70. North Carolina State
71. Boston College
72. Illinois State
73. Minnesota

Since: Nov 4, 2006
Posted on: January 23, 2008 6:29 pm

NCAA Tournament Projections

That is some impressive stuff! I am a student at Indiana State and I sadly have to agree that, though I love the Missouri Valley Confrence, it is down from recent years. But there is a a bit of young talent so I'm hoping that that will pan out for a good future for this league.

Since: Jan 2, 2008
Posted on: January 22, 2008 10:42 pm

NCAA Tournament Projections

I just posted some college vote-off's if anyone is interested











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