Blog Entry

Johan, Livan and the Mets' Chances in 08

Posted on: January 25, 2008 11:17 am

So, I'm reading as I do every morning, and I see that the Mets are close to a deal for Livan Hernandez. At that very moment, I'm thinking to myself: 'after checking the site yesterday and finding out that the Mets may include Ryan Church in a deal for Johan Santana, things may begin to look good for the Mets'. So I keep reading, and I discover that Aaron Heilman may be added to the trade as well, and then I begin to think: 'The Mets are really on to something here'. Then I check out to see how credible the report is (not that Matt Cerrone and his guys at Metsblog aren't reliable...They're actually my first source for Mets news) and I find that they're repoting the same thing. So, the wheels begin to turn a bit more in my head and finally I'm thinking: 'The Mets are going to make a deal for Johan Santana!'.

This is what I think may be going on with the Mets front office and I like it:

1) Sign Livan Hernandez. He wants to play in Queens beside his brother, El Duque. This is not a bad move considering he is only 32, he has pitched nearly 200 innings or more in the last couple of seasons, and would replace the effort the Mets got from Tom Glavine in 2007. This deal however wouldn't preclude a trade for Santana though because,

2) The Mets should move El Duque or Mike Pelfrey to the Bullpen. If Aaron Heilman is included in a deal for Santana, there would be a conspicuous hole in the middle relief. Many people have said Mike Pelfrey may be best suited for this role so that he can gain more confidence and develop further. El Duque on the other hand, has bullpen experience and such a move may prove to be valuable as far as his durability is concerned. At this point, I'm becoming more optimistic about a deal with the Twins. I you had asked me yesterday around noon, I would have said 'no way!' Nevertheless, by making these moves, the Mets so far would have added their ace and solved and further strengthened their bullpen/rotation issues. Not too shabby, huh?

Well, the Twins are asking for Fernando Martinez or Carlos Gomez along with Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra. Along with Ryan Church and Aaron Heilman, this is what Omar should consider:

3) Include Fernando Martinez in this deal! We cannot afford to give up either he or Carlos Gomez, but with Gomez being closer to 'The Show' than Martinez, he would be needed to replace Ryan Church in right field this season. F-Mart isn't due to crack the majors until 2009 or '10, so a supplementary move would be to re-sign Shawn Green for one year to platoon with Gomez. Although Green doesn't have the 'pop' of old, he was adequate last season and to me is a better alternative than Brad Wilkerson.

4) Also include one of Kevin Mulvey or Philip Humber with Deolis Guerra. I'd hate to see Guerra become as dominant as he's projected to be with another club, but I could stomach it if he's included with one of Mulvey or Humber. The Mets will need to keep at least one of them around with Pedro Martinez, El Duque and Oliver Perez all coming off the books after this season.

If this Johan saga ends with him coming to Flushing, I'd love to see the makeup of the lineup and rotation. If it were done, I could see it looking like this:

Starting Rotation:
Johan Santana
2) Pedro Martinez
3) John Maine
4) Livan Hernandez
5) Mike Pelfrey

Orlando Hernandez
Jorge Sosa
Pedro Feliciano
Scott Schoeneweis
Duaner Sanchez
Billy Wagner

1) Jose Reyes
2) Luis Castillo
3) David Wright
4) Carlos Beltran
5) Carlos Delgado
6) Moises Alou
7) Brian Schneider/Shawn Green
8) Carlos Gomez/Brian Schneider
9) Pitcher's spot

 The makeup of this team is not bad at all. In fact, I think they would have a pretty good time rolling through the National League; the only conerns I do have however, are what happens for 2009 when Moises Alou and Carlos Delgado are done? Mark Teixeira is an option, but he may be staying put in Atlanta (he just bought a home there); and I gather finding serviceable outfielders is not too big a deal. Perhaps this may work out. Just perhaps.


Since: Nov 22, 2006
Posted on: January 27, 2008 6:21 pm

Johan, Livan and the Mets' Chances in 08

Good point on Green, though I am sure he knows his skills are diminishing and that even if he doesn't sign with New York he's pretty much going to sit the bench or platoon anywhere else. Let's see what happens with Santana though. I just read that the Twins could trade him in the next 10 days. The Mets apparently told Livan Hernandez (I think that's who they were referring to) to wait until they find out what's going on with him. Either way, I expect that if the Mets get Santana, they are going after Livan as well. Makes me think Mike Pelfrey may be apart of a potential package. Hmmmmmm.  

Since: Dec 28, 2006
Posted on: January 27, 2008 6:14 pm

Johan, Livan and the Mets' Chances in 08

While I am still not a fan of signing Livan Hernandez (Im pretty sure you've read my posts through other threads on him), whoever our 5th starting pitcher winds up being is an after thought in my mind. Being able to put Johan Santana at the top of our rotation and El Duque in our pen would really go a long way in making me feel alot better about this off season. What I am thinking as far as Ryan Church maybe being included in the deal is that Shawn Green in a platoon situation would be a pretty nice fit and we need the lefty bat. Guess the biggest question would be is how do we convince a guy who has made a $100 million during his career to take a mediocre salary for a platoon job? And what exactly would it cost us to sign him?

Since: Nov 22, 2006
Posted on: January 26, 2008 1:38 pm

Johan, Livan and the Mets' Chances in 08

Furthermore, Mell Redux, if you read the lines between points 2 & 3, clearly I say that the Twins are asking for Martinez or Gomez along with Humber, Guerra and Mulvey. At what point did I say it would only take Heilman, Church, Martinez, etc.? This is what I said:

"the Twins are asking for Fernando Martinez or along with , Kevin Mulvey and . Along with Church an Heilman...."

Since: Nov 22, 2006
Posted on: January 26, 2008 1:33 pm

Johan, Livan and the Mets' Chances in 08

First, no, I DON'T believe the Twins will 'take' Church or Heilman. But given the Yankees and Red Sox ARE backing out as suggested in multiple media sources, it may be the deal they have to make. If the other teams are backing out, it only makes sense that Omar Minaya doesn't have to 'sweeten' his deal and include more desireable talent.  What I have READ was that the Mets put together a package that possibly includes the two of them (Church and Heilman).

The purpose of my blog was to make sense of the deal IF a deal like this were to be made. While I am a Mets fan, and you are probably a Twins fan given your apparent knowledge of the discussions, I would suggest that we are BOTH homers....that we both root for and seek the best interest of our favorite team. Last I checked, a 'fan' was short for fanatic; so yes, I proudly admit that I am a homer. Honestly, I would rather keep the talent the Mets have whether it's looked upon favorably by others or not. Maybe that'll be my next blog; but nevertheless, while a deal like this does seem illogical given Church and Heilman are not prospects (I never suggested they were), the Twins ARE looking for either: Major league-ready talent along with prospects, or a package of prospects only. 

As fans, homers whatever, we can only sit back, discuss our views using mediums like blogging, etc. and hope for the best...for our team Mets, Twins, Yankees...whomever.  

Since: Jan 5, 2008
Posted on: January 25, 2008 2:46 pm
This comment has been removed.

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Since: Nov 22, 2006
Posted on: January 25, 2008 11:55 am

Johan, Livan and the Mets' Chances in 08

I apologize. You are absolutely right!!! In that case, I would devise a rotation that looks like this:

1. Johan Santana
2. Pedro Martinez
3. John Maine
4. Oliver Perez
5. Livan Hernandez

Orlando Hernandez
Jorge Sosa
Scott Schoeneweis
Duaner Sanchez
Pedro Feliciano
Billy Wagner

Either the Mets include Mike Pelfrey in the trade (more likely), or he begins the season in New Orleans. It's possible he's swapped with Philip Humber in the deal. I read not to long ago that the Twins have a bit of interest in him anyway. I was beginning to like him. The whole situation is a bit complicated, which is why this trade is taking so long to materialize (whether to Boston, the Bronx or Queens) and probably why it won't get done. I'm convinced it could work out for both sides equally, I just don't really want to see it happen.  

Since: Jan 25, 2008
Posted on: January 25, 2008 11:40 am

Johan, Livan and the Mets' Chances in 08

What about Oliver Perez?  He's not in your proposed rotation or in the bullpen for '08. 

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