Blog Entry

Texas will remain No. 3 in the BCS

Posted on: November 16, 2008 2:25 pm
Edited on: November 16, 2008 5:36 pm
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With the release of the coaches poll on Sunday, it seems obvious that Texas will remain No. 3 in the BCS.

The biggest reason is that Texas passed Oklahoma in the coaches' poll. The coaches' poll had been the only BCS entity to have Oklahoma ranked ahead of Texas. The Longhorns beat Oklahoma on Oct. 11.

Texas will continue to have a slight edge over No. 4 Florida when the latest BCS standings are released mid-afternoon on Sunday. Oklahoma and USC are expected to remain 5 and 6.

Texas picked up 22 points in the coaches' poll moving up from fifth to fourth. Idle Oklahoma lost nine points and moved from fourth to fifth. The top three remain Alabama, Texas Tech and Florida. Florida picked up 26 points and also got one first-place vote in the coaches' poll.

The news is important for Texas because of a possible three-way tie in the Big 12 South. The tie would be broken by the conference selecting the highest ranked team in the BCS to play in the Big 12 title game.

Florida's situation is much clearer. It is likely headed for a winner-take-all shot for a national championship berth against Alabama in the SEC title game.

 

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Comments

Since: Nov 16, 2006
Posted on: November 17, 2008 3:10 am
 

Texas will remain No. 3 in the BCS

wait, what?  Hizzle..... your facts are off but take the burnt orange blilnders off here.

Assuming a 3-way tie between Tech, OU and Texas.  Because there is a 3-way tie, there is no comparing who beat who - hence a 3-way tie.  Of course you have to examine the rest.

What will help Texas: beating Missouri, Losing a nailbiter to Tech on the road, beating OU on a neutral field by 10, and if OU wins in a nail-biter against Tech.

What will help OU: Beating Cincy and TCU - The 2 best non conference wins of all 3 teams combined.  Winning late (though I hate this fact, it will help OU in the human polls).  The SOS will change quite a bit over the next 2 weeks.  Think about it.  OU is playing #1 in the RPI and #13 in consecutive weeks.  Texas plays #95 Texas A&M.  Being that there are 12 games on the schedule, SOS can fluctuate drastically over that period.   If OU beats Tech convincingly and gets by OSU they will get in.

What will help Tech: Win out.  That's it.  If they slip-up to OU or god forbid, Baylor.... they will have to hope for a Missouri win just to get into a BCS game.  But either way, a 1-loss USC team will get in a title game over a 1-loss Tech team because of Tech's awful non-conference schedule.

And if you think about it (though the pollsters won't) if OU gets to the Big XII Title game they they will play Missouri - the same huge when Texas has the the other 2 don't.  If OU beats Missouri, that Texas schedule strength is a moot point.  If Missouri beats OU in this scenario, it may end up being Texas after all.  Crazy stuff.

 

Teams OU needs to root for:

TCU, Cincy, Kansas, Nebraska

Teams Texas needs to root for:

Missouri, Arkansas, Colorado

 

As for the "The only common opponent between them is Baylor, and Texas won by a much larger margin against them than OU did." comment, OU actually won by 32, Texas by 24.  That doesn't matter at all but just for getting the facts straight.  Previous wins in other Bowl games weighs like .00000001 in the polls.  And that might be giving that too much credit.

 




Since: Oct 30, 2006
Posted on: November 17, 2008 3:01 am
 

Texas will remain No. 3 in the BCS

The primary objective of each computer ranking is to resolve the differences in SOS.  The Colley Matrix may be putting a higher weight on the schedule than the other computers.  My own ranking of the schedules, projected, current, and (OOC), including projected games (SEC Champ but not other 13th games which are not set), is: Florida 3, 3 (29), Texas 14, 6 (49), Oklahoma 22, 53 (47), USC 41, 37 (4), Alabama 45, 56 (108), Texas Tech 65, 69 (116), Utah 83, 100 (95), Boise St 104, 116 (73), Ball St 118, 120 (111). 

According to Colley's results, Texas and Florida have current SOS that more than make up for their loss, versus the schedules of Alabama, Texas Tech, and other contenders.  Oklahoma could close the Texas gap significantly, but will not cross the Red River in this poll.  At this point, Texas is fortunate to have had the harder XII north draw this season, as they now have multiple paths to the title game.  The coaches who "got it wrong" may turn out to be the ones who scheduled the likes of Massachusetts or Chattanooga (somehow, scheduling The Citadel gets a pass). 

I look for the BCS to issue minimum schedule criteria for BCS conferences to earn their bids, especially with the MWC gaining momentum for a future automatic bid.  Max 7 home games, at least one OOC vs BCS, at least one road OOC vs non-BCS (ALC), one FCS game every two years, and comparable criteria for ALCs and COOs (conferences of one).  The BCS can be expected to do what it does best - protect its revenue stream.




Since: May 6, 2008
Posted on: November 17, 2008 2:43 am
 

Texas will remain No. 3 in the BCS

sadly??? if tech wins sat.. there is no doubt in any smart football fans mind that tech should be in "the big show" they beat texas and oklahoma .. which are the only other 2 who are in the conversation..



Since: Oct 26, 2008
Posted on: November 17, 2008 1:08 am
 

Texas will remain No. 3 in the BCS

OU tooo, Ok so lets break this down.  OU should get in over Texas, right?  Lets assume OU and Texas win out, before the cc game.

1) Same conference, same division

2) Texas SOS will be higher.  Not my opinion, this is a tangible number - Texas #1, OU #19, and OU will not jump 19 spots in 2 weeks.

3) Texas 1 loss is against the current #2 team, at their home, with 1 second left.  OU lost by 10.

4) Texas beat OU head to head.

5) The only common opponent between them is Baylor, and Texas won by a much larger margin against them than OU did.

6) Texas has won 4 bowl games in a row, 2 consecutive Rose Bowls, and 6 of their last 7 bowl games.  OU has lost 4 of their last 5.

But your argument is that OU gets in because they beat Cincinnatti?




Since: Dec 4, 2006
Posted on: November 17, 2008 12:49 am
 

Texas will remain No. 3 in the BCS

Whoa TreDay99, to get to the big show Oklahoma still has to beat Oklahoma State, Texas Tech then win the Big 12 title game, which would be against Missouri.

If OU does that then the Sooners are the clear-cut choice because of the non-conference schedule. OU beat Cincinnati (8-2, 4-1 with the inside track to a BCS bowl) and TCU  (9-2, 6-1). Texas' toughest non-con game was 7-3 Rice, followed by 5-5 Florida Atlantic and 5-5 UTEP.

No sad part about it. If OU runs the table they should be ahead of Texas.




Since: Oct 26, 2008
Posted on: November 17, 2008 12:32 am
 

Texas will remain No. 3 in the BCS

AustinRedRaider, lol, no not off my rocker - just being logical.  The coaches say Texas is above OU, the computers say Texas is above OU (and by a fairly large margin), in fact every single poll has Texas ranked above.  Now OU has to make a claim that they should move up 3 spots to pass a team with the same record that beat them, in two weeks.  Cmon.  Answer me this:  How much luck has Tech had passing Alabama in the polls, even though Tech has beaten better opponents and looked better?  Also, how many teams in the top 10 this week (in the BCS standings) passed another in front of them, if the team in front of them won?  Point - it is very very very very difficult in the BCS rankings to pass a team in front of you without that other team loosing (especially if the team you are trying to pass is in the same division, has played a tougher SOS, has the same record, and beat you straight up).  Not gonna happen.  Again, not dogging



Since: Oct 26, 2008
Posted on: November 17, 2008 12:32 am
 

Texas will remain No. 3 in the BCS

AustinRedRaider, lol, no not off my rocker - just being logical.  The coaches say Texas is above OU, the computers say Texas is above OU (and by a fairly large margin), in fact every single poll has Texas ranked above.  Now OU has to make a claim that they should move up 3 spots to pass a team with the same record that beat them, in two weeks.  Cmon.  Answer me this:  How much luck has Tech had passing Alabama in the polls, even though Tech has beaten better opponents and looked better?  Also, how many teams in the top 10 this week (in the BCS standings) passed another in front of them, if the team in front of them won?  Point - it is very very very very difficult in the BCS rankings to pass a team in front of you without that other team loosing (especially if the team you are trying to pass is in the same division, has played a tougher SOS, has the same record, and beat you straight up).  Not gonna happen.  Again, not



Since: Nov 9, 2008
Posted on: November 17, 2008 12:01 am
 

Texas will remain No. 3 in the BCS

HizzleRocker?  Are you off your rocker?  Texas' ONLY chance for a NC game is for Tech to lose to Mizzou in BIG 12 CCG!  Sorry Bevo, best case scenario is 2nd in the Big 12 South behind your loss to Red Raider w/ Tech win in Norman, this scenario gives you Fiesta bowl vs. Ohio St (Mich St. w/ win over PSU).  With 3 way tie in South (OU win over Tech), OU goes to NC, Tech gets nod to Fiesta Bowl b/c head-to-head w/ Texas.  Still following? 

Analysts have already stated that Tech MAY stay ranked above OU in BCS w/ extremely tight game IN Norman!  I don't see this playing out, but it has been stated by some voters.... 




Since: Nov 9, 2008
Posted on: November 16, 2008 11:51 pm
 

Texas will remain No. 3 in the BCS

OU needs to worry about Ok State beating them. If they play like they did vs Texas they will be tough to beat. If they play like they did against Tx Tech they have no chance.

Wouldn't be the fact that Ok St. came up on a better defense vs. Tech (#2 total Defense in the Big 12 behind OU) than they played against Texas, would it?  Give credit where credit is due......  OU better watch their backs, SOS out the door, not only is Tech's offense coming to Norman, but we're bringing the D as well!!

Fact is for both teams, this is the best Defensive matchup and the best offensive matchup either has seen all year.  After all, that's why we play the games.




Since: Oct 26, 2008
Posted on: November 16, 2008 11:39 pm
 

Texas will remain No. 3 in the BCS

Guys, Cbs right now has the SOS ratings.  Texas is ranked #1.  OU is ranked #19.  There is no way - no way - no way that OU moves from #19 to #1 in SOS in 2 weeks when they have to lower the rankings of the 2 teams they are playing by beating them.  You are telling me that in 2 weeks OU will move up 19 spots and make Texas #2 SOS while OU becomes #1, and then makes an argument that they are better even though Texas beat them by 10 head to head.  Cmon guys.  Look, if you are an OU fan I am not saying you need to like it, I am just saying that you can not move up 3 spots in the BCS rankings to pass a team who is winning in front of you, depending solely on SOS, when you can't even win the SOS argument b/c UT's will still be higher.  Like it or not, I am just saying that is the way it will be.  OU beating Tech is a sure ticket for Texas in the national championship.  Cheers.


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