Weekend bloglist (BCS inaccuracy revealed!)

I wrote about the secrecy of the coaches poll last week. BCS guru Jerry Palm took it a step further revealing on his website (collegebcs.com) this week that there was a miscalculation in the Colley Matrix, one of the six computers used in the BCS formula.

Colley is the only one of the six who makes his formula public. Therefore Palm, and others, can check it from week to week. Far be it from me to be able to check math. I have problems helping my sixth grader with area and perimeter.

Anyway, it turns out that Colley, Palm states, forgot to input two games this season -- Idaho at Hawaii and UC-Davis at San Diego. Idaho-Hawaii had no impact on the numbers. However, UC-Davis-San Diego did matter.

Palm says that the BCS got erroneous data from Colley this week. Hold onto your computers. It didn't matter in the BCS top 25 but that's not the point.

The point, as I stated last week, is that we have no way of knowing if any of these indexes or polls are on the up-and-up. I still haven't determined if the Harris Poll has an oversight system that would, say, catch a bogus ballot that would rank Texas 25th and Oklahoma No. 1. At least the coaches poll has some oversight built in but not much.

The computers, though, scare me more. Colley owned up to his mistake. The five other computer guys won't so much as release their formulas. With all these numbers flying around are we just supposed to assume that everything is accurate?

Just another reason to be afraid of the BCS.

weimerrr Reputation: 88 Level: All-Star Since: Nov 28, 2008	Posted on: November 28, 2008 10:18 am Score: 42 Weekend bloglist (BCS inaccuracy revealed!) To be fair to Jeff Sagarin, one of the other computer poll guys, the Elo-Chess method which Sagarin employs is in the public domain. The method is described in Arpad Elo's Book, 'The Rating of Chess Players, Past and Present'. Well, OK, it's a published mathematical work so maybe 'public domain' is a stretch, only mathematicians would ever read it, but still, you can buy it on Amazon.com. [ Reply to Comment ]
SWTGRAD99 Reputation: 98 Level: Superstar Since: Jan 17, 2007	Posted on: November 28, 2008 10:28 am Score: 81 Weekend bloglist (BCS inaccuracy revealed!) No Really....Serious!!! Come on man give it a break!!! Football and Chess? The man said it did not affect the top 25...so really who cares!!! I think a playoff would still be better and a true National Champion would be crowned!!! [ Reply to Comment ]
BMaddMan Reputation: 55 Level: Pro Since: Nov 28, 2008	Posted on: November 28, 2008 10:31 am Score: 42 Weekend bloglist (BCS inaccuracy revealed!) YOW, the dork-o-meter just went through the roof with that comment. Way to go weimerrr [ Reply to Comment ]
chirocolt Reputation: 99 Level: Superstar Since: Sep 12, 2006	Posted on: November 28, 2008 10:45 am Score: 94 (don't fear) The BCS (don't fear) The BCS (sung to the tune of Blue Oyster Cult's "(don't fear) The Reaper" All the games have come Here but now they're gone This season don't fear the BCS It will all work out in the end At least we can hope it will Come on Texas... don't fear the BCS Oklahoma take my hand... don't fear the BCS I hope there isn's a tie... don't fear the BCS Sagarin is your man... Can you bribe a computer Can you sway Peter Wolfe Anderson and Hester Are together in eternity... Anderson and Hester 40,000 men and women everyday... can find a better answer 40,000 men and women everyday... redefine the system Another 40,000 coming everyday...why can't they see it like we do Come on Utah... don't fear the BCS Ball State take my hand... don't fear the BCS Boise doesn't need a big game... don't fear the BCS Just play on your blue turf again... Love of money wins out Here but now there's doubt Oklahoma, Texas, or Texas Tech? Alabama, Florida, or USC? Then the door was open and John Swofford appeared The wind blew and our questions disappeared The curtains flew then Miles Brand appeared Saying don't be afraid Come on baby... and we have no fear And we drank the Kool-Aid... then we started to fly We looked backward and said goodbye We had become like they are We had taken his hand We had become like they are Come on baby...don't fear the BCS Total butchery of a great song, I know, but I couldn't help it. I got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell! [ Reply to Comment ]
Dafiedla Reputation: 67 Level: Pro Since: Mar 16, 2008	Posted on: November 28, 2008 11:01 am Score: 76 Last Boyscout The BCS is no better than the fictitional powers in The Last Boy Scout. Money comes first. The student-athletes come last. And who really cares who the real champion is? At least people talk on Monday. Where's Bruce Willis when we need him? [ Reply to Comment ]
ETMortgage Reputation: 0 Level: Amateur Since: Dec 24, 2006	Posted on: November 28, 2008 11:08 am Score: 91 This comment has been removed. Post Deleted by Administrator
weimerrr Reputation: 88 Level: All-Star Since: Nov 28, 2008	Posted on: November 28, 2008 11:08 am Score: 34 Weekend bloglist (BCS inaccuracy revealed!) If you want a clean way to give someone a trophy, playoffs are the way to go. But which 8 teams? (or 4 teams or whatever). You still need to decide who gets in. You still need polls or computers or a committee like NCAA basketball has. As bad of press that the computer guys get, I still say they are better at ranking teams than sportswriters and coaches. There are two other problems with either system (playoffs of BCS) that nobody is addressing. 1) Are the MAC,WAC,MWC,CUSA on the same footing as the big six conferences? If yes, you have to include Ball State, Boise State in a playoff. If not, then admit that you really have two separate divisions and let Boise State, Ball State, Utah and Tulsa have their own playoff 2) Weak non-conference schedules. We would have a much clearer picture of who is on top if the top six conferences played each other in non-conference play rather than Florida scheduling the Citadel. Let everyone have one cupcake to get warmed up, but three-quarters of the non-conference games should be against legitimate opponents. [ Reply to Comment ]
A Flamingohead Reputation: 99 Level: Superstar Since: Sep 3, 2007	Posted on: November 28, 2008 11:21 am Score: 94 Weekend bloglist (BCS inaccuracy revealed!) The least you could have done was let someone else have the cowbell comment! Good work chiro. [ Reply to Comment ]
Gomexican Reputation: 99 Level: Superstar Since: Dec 5, 2007	Posted on: November 28, 2008 11:21 am Score: 89 Weekend bloglist (BCS inaccuracy revealed!) Best BCS Comment ever!! Move over Yankovic! [ Reply to Comment ]
chirocolt Reputation: 99 Level: Superstar Since: Sep 12, 2006	Posted on: November 28, 2008 11:22 am Score: 94 Weekend bloglist (BCS inaccuracy revealed!) In order for the playoff system to work, we would have to do away with automatic bids by winning your conference. In that scenario, we wouldn't have a sub-par ACC or Big East champ taking the place of an undefeated Boise State in the playoff. Of course no one will ever get on board with that idea because of the loss of revenue for the "BCS" conferences. [ Reply to Comment ]

Dennis Dodd

Dodds and Ends