Blog Entry

In early returns Sunday, OU leads Texas in BCS

Posted on: November 30, 2008 9:35 am
Edited on: November 30, 2008 10:09 am

Oklahoma has the early advantage in its Sunday BCS showdown with Texas. It is a significant one.

The Sooners moved past Texas in the Sagarin Rankings, one of six computers used to determine the BCS standings. Jeff Sagarin was the first of the computer masters to post their updated rankings. Oklahoma moved from No. 4 to No. 1 in Sagarin while Texas dropped from No. 1 to No. 2.

What does that mean? Plenty. OU has a .0150 of a point lead over Texas now in Jerry Palm's BCS standings estimate posted early Sunday. Texas came into Saturday with a .0084 lead over Oklahoma in the official BCS standings. The highest ranked team of the two in Sunday's BCS standings will play in the Big 12 championship game against Missouri on Saturday.

Win that and either Oklahoma or Texas could play for the national championship against the Alabama/Florida winner in the SEC championship game.

There is still a long way to go Sunday but momentum seems to be building behind the Sooners who made their final regular-season statement in a 61-41 over No. 11 Oklahoma State., another website dedicated to BCS analysis but with no input into the system, projected Sunday that Oklahoma would finish ahead of Texas.

Still to weigh in, the five other computer indexes and the two human polls that comprise the BCS -- the Harris and coaches polls.

Here is a very preliminary look by Palm at the top five posted on his site Sunday morning.

1. Alabama, .9839
2. Oklahoma, .9325
3. Texas, .9175
4. Florida, .8988
5. USC, .8107

Breakdown of the Big 12 South three-way tie as of Sunday morning:

Texas (11-1, 7-1)

Why they're in this position:  Blake Gideon, Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree.

Texas had Tech beat in Lubbock until it gave the ball back with 1:29 left in the Nov. 1 game. Harrell was able to drive the team down for the game-winning touchdown with one second left. But that was only after Gideon, a Texas defensive back, dropped a tipped pass that would have ended Tech's drive.

Crabtree made an amazing catch against double coverage and tight-roped the sidelines into the end zone for a 39-33 victory.

Ranked teams beaten (ranking at time of kickoff): No. 1 Oklahoma 45-35; No. 11 Missouri 56-31; No. 7 Oklahoma State 28-24.

Common opponent with other two teams: Defeated Kansas 35-7, defeated Texas A&M 49-9, defeated Oklahoma State 28-24, defeated Baylor 45-21.

Schedule strength (Sagarin): No. 12 (down from No. 5 last week)

BCS ranking: No. 2

Argument for:  Defeated three teams ranked in the top 11, including No. 1 Oklahoma. Colt McCoy is this year's version of Tim Tebow leading the Horns in rushing and passing. Will Muschamp's defense might not be impressive statistically but it is a big play group and is coming off its best performance of the season against Kansas.

Oh, also beat Oklahoma head-to-head by 10 on a neutral field on Oct. 11.

Argument against: Not much of one except that it didn't play on Saturday while Oklahoma got all the national love. If Texas doesn't get to the Big 12 title game it will be because of a six-point loss on the road with one second left against Texas Tech.


Texas Tech (11-1, 7-1)

Why they're in this position: Worst game of the season came at the worst possible time. Technically, Tech is involved in the three-way tie but its 44-point loss at Oklahoma on Nov. 22 seems to have eliminated it from division title consideration.

Ranked teams beaten (ranking at time of kickoff): No. 19 Kansas 63-21; No. 1 Texas 39-33; No. 8 Oklahoma State 56-20.

Common opponent with other two teams:  Defeated Kansas 63-21, defeated Oklahoma State, 56-20, defeated Texas A&M 43-25, defeated Baylor 35-28.

Schedule strength (Sagarin): No. 26 (down from No. 19 last week)

BCS ranking: No. 7

Argument for: Defeated No. 1 (Texas), sports a Heisman frontrunner (Harrell) and the nation's best receiver (Crabtree). But there's more than this high-flying offense. Texas Tech has been well -rounded most of the season with a serviceable running game and effective defense. Until Saturday.

Argument against: You can't lose by 44 on national television on Nov. 22 and expect to play for a national championship, much less a Big 12 title.

Oklahoma (11-1, 7-1)

Why they're in this position:  Colt McCoy. Texas' quarterback had a career day on Oct. 11. The Sooners led by five with 12 minutes but were outscored 15-0 down the stretch the day in beating Oklahoma.

The result created a firestorm that isn't going to quiet down anytime soon.

Ranked teams beaten (ranked at the time of kickoff): No. 24 TCU, 35-10; No. 2 Texas Tech, 65-21.

Common opponent with other two teams: Defeated Kansas 45-31, defeated Baylor 49-17, defeated Texas A&M 66-28, defeated Oklahoma State 61-41.

Schedule strength (Sagarin): No. 17 (up from No. 26 last week)

BCS ranking: No. 3

Argument for: Playing the best right now. OU has laid waste to its opponents since losing to Texas. It has won successive games by 14, 23, 34, 38, 44 and 20 points.

Sam Bradford leads the country in touchdown passes (44) and seems to be the new Heisman leader.

Argument against: Beat Tech which beat Texas which beat Oklahoma. Oh no, here we go again.

Category: NCAAF

Since: Aug 29, 2006
Posted on: December 5, 2008 9:22 am

In early returns Sunday, OU leads Texas in BCS

Oh come on, Babe, are you seriously trying to tell me that Georgia isn't still the #1 team in the country?  Just because they lost 3 times, the last to GT... Do Bama, Florida and Georgia Tech get credit for beating #1 or #16? 

It's sort of like the 'Bama fans, when asked who has Bama beaten, bring up the powerhouse that is Clemson.  The same Clemson who, while ranked at the time, is nowhere to be seen now AND has fired their coach. 

I'm with you, preseason rankings, as we have seen again this year, are pretty meaningless.  So are rankings in the first three or four weeks.  I mean, seriously, we are going to base someone's ranking on how they do against Little Sisters of the Poor?   Wait until teams start playing in conference, or at the very least until the last week of OOC play, to start trying to put people in order. 

Since: Oct 29, 2006
Posted on: December 5, 2008 8:42 am

In early returns Sunday, OU leads Texas in BCS

Dodds, my respect for you is falling like a rock!     Why in the world would anyone put out such obviously biased stats that are both inaccurate and out-of-date?

This has to be a conscious effort to make the Sooners appear in the worst possible way while making the Longhorns appear in the best possible way.    Why use 'rankings at the time of the kickoff'   when showing  'Ranked Team beat' instead of the most recent up-to-date rankings.    CBS updates both their rankings and their SOS ratings every week, so why didn't you use them?   It is merely common sense that the earlier the rankings, the more guess-work the poll-voters utilize and therefore the less accurate they are.     &
nbsp; You show Texas with victories over 3 ranked teams, Texas Tech with 3, and Oklahoma with only 2.     (Oklahoma beat Kansas Oct.18 and you show the Jayhawks to be unranked, while Texas Tech beat Kansas Oct.25 and you show the Jayhawks to be ranked #19 .....a week about Oklahoma beat them!)

Anybody ought to be able to see that Oklahoma has beat at least 4 of the top 20 teams, even discounting Kansas.     While Texas has beat only 3  ranked teams,  and in another week Texas will most likely have beaten only 2 top-25 teams.  


Since: Oct 29, 2006
Posted on: December 5, 2008 8:21 am

In early returns Sunday, OU leads Texas in BCS

What a load of Crap!!    For what reason was there a ridiculous catagory titled;   Ranked teams beaten (ranking at time of kickoff): .?? This appears to be awfully suspicious of someone spot-using only stats that will project the Longhorns in the best possible way and make the Sooners appear at the worst possible.  

First of all,  the weekly rankings mean very little in determining the actual strength of a team.    There shouldn't even be a poll ranking any team until at least the fifth or sixth week of the season because the earlier the ranking, the less truthful it is.    Take a look back at the pre-season rankings and see how utterly wrong the so-called experts were about;  Georgia, LSU, Auburn, Tennessee, Arizonia State, Wisconsin, California, South Florida, ect.ect...    To even insinuate that Texas beat the #1, #7, and #11 teams;   that Texas Tech beat the #1,#8, and #19 teams;   and that Oklahoma only won against the #2, and #24 teams is  totally inaccurate and grossly mis-leading.    

In the second place,  the listed figures are wrong even if the catagory had any relevance!....  Kansas is showing not to be ranked on Oct.18 the day Oklahoma played them in their 7th game when the Jayhawks had lost only one game and yet Kansas is showing to be ranked #19 on Oct.25 when they played Texas Tech,  exactly a week after they lost to the Sooners !  (.....also I believe Cincinnati was still ranked in the top 25 during the 2nd week when the Sooners beat them, even if they weren't ranked then, they are now)

It would have been much more accurate if the catagory was simply;    Ranked teams beaten and Texas was shown to have beaten , (using the most recent CBS rankings),  the #3, #15, and the #21 teams (and if the Tigers lose to the Sooners Texas will have beaten only two ranked teams);   Texas Tech has beat the #4, and the #15 teams( wins against two currently ranked teams);   Oklahoma beat the #4, #6, #11, and the #13 teams (wins against 4 currently ranked teams.....and there is a good possibility that all four of these currently ranked teams the Sooners have beaten will move up in the rankings). 

Since: Sep 16, 2008
Posted on: November 30, 2008 3:11 pm

In early returns Sunday, OU leads Texas in BCS

Couldn't agree more!!!

Since: Sep 16, 2008
Posted on: November 30, 2008 3:09 pm

In early returns Sunday, OU leads Texas in BCS

I wish for a few moments you texas fans could read your thoughts the way we do.  Here you are talking about respect...Is that what you call flying an airplane overhead with a reminder banner during our game.  Trying to distract college players before a game...tisk tisk...not very sportsman like if u ask me.  How about text messaging all the sports writers during our game with Tech.....more sportsmanship?  I guess thats what you call it in texas......we call it rude.  Oh well, I guess what it says more than anything is that even Mack Brown knows who the victor will be and he's trying to derail the inevitable!  Better luck next year.  Next time take care of all your business and there won't be any debate.

Since: Nov 28, 2008
Posted on: November 30, 2008 3:04 pm

In early returns Sunday, OU leads Texas in BCS

Oklahoma is averaging 6 points in the 4th qtr. through 12 games (4.4 before last night!)....enough said! BOOMER SOONER 

Since: Sep 16, 2008
Posted on: November 30, 2008 3:02 pm

In early returns Sunday, OU leads Texas in BCS

I'm tired of reading two-faced garbage!  Go smoke your crack elsewhere!  Penalize Stoops for the last minute score?  Palease!  In one breath your saying they didn't win by enough and the other you're saying they shouldn't have gone for more.  By the way....IT WAS A FRICKIN RUN PLAY THAT GOT BY!!!  STOOPS AND COMPANY WERE RUNNING THE CLOCK OUT YOU MORON!  GO BACK TO TEXAS AND STFU!!

Since: Nov 30, 2008
Posted on: November 30, 2008 3:00 pm

In early returns Sunday, OU leads Texas in BCS

The head to head argument is objective, but texas fans are narrowing that objectivity to fit into the world as they would like it to be.  You can't look at head to head OU v texas and ignore head to head texas v Texas Tech.  It doesn't make something objective if you are exclusive of the rest of reality!

Objective:  There was only room for one score (OU v texas) on your cute little airplane banner.

Truly Objective:  You should have put the OU v Tech and texas v Tech scores on the banner also

Reality:  The system stinks and your argument is weak.  The sytem stinks and our argument is weak.  You won't feel sorry for us if you come out on top, and we won't feel sorry for you if we come out on top.  In fact, this will give us extra fuel to continue hating eachother like no other two programs in college football do!  I enjoy the fact that no matter what happens here, nobody can ever force us to be friends!!!

Since: Nov 28, 2008
Posted on: November 30, 2008 2:44 pm

In early returns Sunday, OU leads Texas in BCS

texas lost to tech to create the mess you are guys brought it on yourselves!   You did lose on the last play, however were outplayed most of the game by a team who almost lost to baylor on the same field!

Since: Nov 28, 2008
Posted on: November 30, 2008 2:40 pm

In early returns Sunday, OU leads Texas in BCS

We did get beat by ut...your logic shows your stupidity, if that is the case we should have had an interception in the endzone that would have kept texas from taking their first lead late in the third qtr...who knows what happens after that.  I will give you that we lost, however an A$$ kicking is more like 63-14 and 65-13.  Getting beat by 10 and not giving up the lead until one minute left in the 3rd qtr. is not an A$$ kicking. 

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