Blog Entry

Picking the Big Ten

Posted on: June 15, 2009 10:04 am

This might be the worst I've seen the Big Ten in 11 years.

That's as long as I've been at, so 1998 seems like a reasonable benchmark. In '98, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio State shared the title. Michigan was coming off a national championship. Wisconsin went to the Rose Bowl that year. Ohio State went to the Sugar Bowl.

For gosh sakes, in '98 John Cooper was about to win at least 10 for the fourth consecutive year.

Now? Illinois can't decide whether it is a contender or in the middle of the pack. Bret Bielema is feeling the pressure at Wisconsin. The only new coach in the league is aptly named Hope (Danny, at Purdue). Eleven years ago the Boilermakers won their last six in row, went to the Alamo Bowl and upset Kansas State with Drew Brees.

The 2009 Boilers are coming off their worst season (4-8) in 12 years.

Iowa wants to be good again but it could use less yapping from its fans and more production on the field. And Michigan ... where have you gone Wolverines? A total meltdown in Rich Rodriguez' first season has to be rectified, like, yesterday.

Indiana and Minnesota will be at the bottom of the league, a place with which they are familiar.

The Big Ten remains the leader in BCS bowls (19) but you don't have to be told the league has lost a step in recent years. The 28 NFL draft picks each of the last two seasons ranked fifth (2008) and tied for fourth (2009) among major conferences.

The league is only 9-20 in bowls (1-6 last season) since 2005.  

Here's my best example for how average the Big Ten has become: Penn State has to replace 12 starters (the most in the league), including its entire secondary. It is a twisted ankle at quarterback away from finishing fifth. A good, not great, group of receivers have to be replaced by what might be good, not great, group of receivers.

Still, the Nittany Lions are a virtual pick-'em with Ohio State to go to the Rose Bowl.

By the way, the Rose Bowl is going to be it for the conference champ.  I don't see a national title contender in the bunch. The letters U, S and C will burn the ears of Big Ten loyalists. USC has beaten Big Ten teams by a combined 60 points the past three Januarys. The Trojans will likely be waiting in Pasadena to lay the smack down once again.

Like the Woody and Bo days, it's still a two-team league. Unlike the Woody and Bo days, there's not much national buzz.

1. Ohio State -- How do you lose Beanie Wells, Malcolm Jenkins and James Laurinaitis and get better? You don't. But there is enough left for the Bucks to win the Big Ten again. They have won at least a share of the four previous titles. Everyone seems to be jumping on the Terrelle Pryor bandwagon this season. Look, I like the kid and the athlete. I'm still not convinced he's going to make that quantum leap this season. There will be more pressure on Pryor to carry the offense with his legs if either Brandon Saine or Dan Herron can't become the big dog at tailback. Much will be learned on Sept. 12 when USC visits. Give Jim Tressel a running game, a punter and 105,000 homers and he will field-position you to death. If Tres can't pull it off in September, there's a rematch waiting in Pasadena.

2. Penn State -- It's a miracle of modern science. No, not JoePa's body, I'm talking about the Penn State staff. It has stayed together (for the most part), remained loyal and helped Joe dig out of that 2000-2004 hole. The Nittany Lions are Rose Bowl contenders for the foreseeable future. The defense keeps its snarl with the return of linebacker Sean Lee. The unit did finish in the top 10 in total defense last season. Will the D miss defensive ends Aaron Maybin and Maurice Evans? As mentioned, Daryll Clark has to stay healthy. He has enough elusiveness along with tailback Evan Royster to win the league. Ohio State comes to Happy Valley on Nov. 7.

3. Iowa -- If only Shonn Greene had returned, we might be talking about the Hawkeyes giving Ohio State and Penn State a run. With quarterback Ricky Stanzi having a year of experience and three offensive line starters returning, the Hawks will be productive but in a different way. Stanzi likely will have to make more plays himself (hint: scramble) unless sophomore Jewel Hampton or freshman Jeff Brinson replace those Greene yards.

4. Michigan State -- The Spartans are the Big Ten's flavor of the month. Coach Mark Dantonio has averaged eight wins in his first two seasons in East Lansing and the program ready to take off. Even with the loss of his two best players -- quarterback Brian Hoyer and tailback Javon Ringer -- there is plenty of talent waiting offstage. Watch true freshman tailbacks Edwin Baker and Larry Caper. Sorry Penn State, Michigan State might have the best linebackers in the league starting with junior Greg Jones, a consensus preseason all-Big Ten pick. Dantonio has the two best leg men in the league in kicker Brett Swenson and punter Aaron Bates. Iowa, Penn State and Michigan come to East Lansing. Ohio State is off the schedule.

5. Illinois -- What's your legacy going to be Juice Williams? Two years ago Illinois' quarterback guided a stunning upset at Columbus. Last season Williams and the Illini slumped. In his senior season, Juice could go out as one of Illinois' quarterback greats. Even though he led the Big Ten in passing yards, Williams threw too many interceptions (16). He will hook up often with the incredible Arrelious Benn. New offensive coordinator Mike Schultz will try to squeeze some of the old Juice out of his new quarterback. Schultz oversaw a similar offense at TCU. We'll know about the Illini before Oct. 1. They play Missouri in St. Louis and Ohio State in Columbus in September.

6. Northwestern -- The Big Ten's annually pesky Wildcats figure to be that way again. After Tressel, Pat Fitzgerald might be the league's best coach.  His team started 5-0 and came within an overtime loss to Missouri in the Alamo Bowl of winning 10 last season. There are too many holes this season to expect Northwestern to finish in the top half of the league but somebody's going to get punked by the purple in the parity-filled Big Ten.

7. Wisconsin -- Is it time to panic yet? Bielema started 21-5 in his first two seasons, then slumped to 7-6 last year. But it was the way it happened: Bielema still hasn't been able to find a serviceable quarterback. The Badgers looked lost on defense and the prospects aren't good for this season. The formula to beat Wisconsin hasn't changed: Let the tailbacks get their yards, smack the quarterback in the mouth, wait for the turnovers and control the ball against a poor-tackling defense.
8. Michigan -- I was at a Michigan scrimmage in April during the Final Four. Granted, you don't learn much from watching a scrimmage but it seemed to me the offense still struggled to move the ball. Rich Rod better hope that the early-enrolling Tate Forcier is the answer at quarterback. There isn't much behind him. The defense should toughen up. A bowl is a possibility but will a 5-7 season be considered progress?

9. Minnesota -- Third-year coach Tim Brewster has a new state-of-the art stadium. That won't distract fans from asking if the five-game season-ending losing streak is the beginning of the end or just a nit in Goldy's fur. Watch the combination of quarterback Adam Weber  and receiver Eric Decker.

10. Purdue -- There are spider webs in the cupboard left over from Tiller's era. Only two starters return on offense. The most experienced quarterback is fifth-year senior Joey Elliott who has played in 10 games in three seasons. Hope is looking at an 0-5 start if he can't beat Northern Illinois and Toledo early.

11. Indiana -- Kellen Lewis wasn't going to play quarterback anyway. Still, his dismissal from the team in April all but assures another down year in Bloomington. Lewis, the program's career passing touchdown leader, had been moved to receiver to make room for junior Ben Chappell. Lewis was the Hoosiers' best athlete. Without him there aren't many playmakers or much hope. Coach Bill Lynch might be on the hot seat.


Since: Jul 8, 2008
Posted on: June 17, 2009 2:46 am

Picking the Big Ten

You absolutely nailed it!  Excellent piece, 1-11 are just about right.  It is hard being a fan in the Big 10 (little 11) GO BUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

Since: May 27, 2009
Posted on: June 17, 2009 1:48 am
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Since: Apr 4, 2008
Posted on: June 17, 2009 12:58 am

Picking the Big Ten

Because I felt like doing this:

# of 9+ win teams in each conference since 1989:

ACC- 56
Big East- 43 
Big Ten- 64
Big 12- 51
Pac-10- 48
SEC- 79

C-USA- 20
MAC- 29
MWC- 17
Independents- 32
Sun Belt- 1
WAC***- 39

SWC*- 13
Big West**- 9
Big 8*- 18

# of 10+ win teams from each conference since 1989: 

ACC- 30
Big East- 24
Big Ten- 39
Big 12- 35
Pac-10- 31
SEC- 51

C-USA- 10
MAC- 16
MWC- 12
Independents- 17
Sun Belt- 0
WAC***- 22

SWC*- 8
Big West**- 4
Big 8*- 11

*- From '89-'95
**- Became Sun Belt in 2001, Boise State left for WAC
***- Teams left and joined MWC in 1999

A few notes from this little venture....first off the Independents:

1989- Northern Illinois (9 wins), Miami, Florida State, Notre Dame (10+ wins)
1990- Notre Dame, Penn State (9 wins), Louisville, Miami, FSU (10+ wins)
1991- East Carolina, FSU, PSU, Tulsa, Notre Dame (10+ wins)
1992- Notre Dame (10+ wins)
1993- Notre Dame (10+ wins), Louisville (9 wins)
1995- Notre Dame, ECU (9 wins)
1996- Army (10+ wins), Navy (9 wins)
1997- Louisiana Tech (9 wins)
1998- Central Florida, Notre Dame (9 wins)
2000- Notre Dame (9 wins)
2002- Notre Dame (10 wins), South Florida (9 wins)
2003- Connecticut (9 wins)
2004- Navy (10+ wins)
2005- Notre Dame (9 wins)
2006- Notre Dame (10+ wins), Navy (9 wins)

The Independents were loaded early on with the likes of Penn State, Miami, Florida State, Notre Dame, West Virginia, and Louisville. Once most of those schools (well everyone except Notre Dame) found conferences to fit into, the Independents began to fade until it became "the Notre Dame and Navy show".

Just a few other looks like the Big Ten is second in 9 win teams and 10 win teams since 1989. Now I'll be more than happy to figure those numbers from just the last 10 years if you want a better, more accurate standing.

I didn't combine the Big 8 and SWC records with the Big 12 because it wouldn't be right to add teams to the Big 12's records when teams from the Big 8 didn't play teams from the SWC for wins on most occassions and vice-versa, therefore they wouldn't count as wins for the Big 12. Texas wasn't playing Nebraska on an almost annual basis until the Big 12 formed in 1996, same with the other 4 SWC members. Texas and Oklahoma were the only ones that really ever met annually.

This is also the reason why I didn't add teams' wins to other conferences before they were there. FSU's wins didn't count for the ACC until they were there. Same with Penn State. Miami's wins for the Big East counted for the Big East, same as their wins for the ACC count for the ACC. That should be easy to understand, but I just wanna make sure.

Anyways, after reviewing these records of conferences' 9 and 10 win teams over the last 20 years, it's clear that the SEC has been the best over that time. But it's also clear that the Big Ten is second, which should do something to disspell the train of thought that the Big Ten has been such a terrible conference for decades......

P.S. The SEC would've had 80 9-win teams, but Alabama had to forfeit their conference wins in 1993. That is also the year an Auburn program on probation went 11-0.

So anyways.....have at it.

Since: Jun 17, 2009
Posted on: June 17, 2009 12:28 am

Picking the Big Ten

Why is he so down on Penn state replacing 12 starters, that usualy happens to most teams in college football. especially after a great year when a few underclassmen that had good years are going to leave early.   

Since: Jun 1, 2008
Posted on: June 16, 2009 11:23 pm

Picking the Big Ten

James Harrison dominated the Superbowl lol

Since: Oct 30, 2008
Posted on: June 16, 2009 10:31 pm

Picking the Big Ten

USC bandwagon?  What does that post have to do with Pitt?  Nothing but Typical Penn St idiot response.  Just had to comment when a Buckeye and Nittany Nanny fan argue about having the best LBs in the country when a team that slapped them both got three drafted on day one.  Short memories I see.  And since you have to bring Pitt into it,  if your stubborn old head coach would play Pitt it would be one thing.  Guess he doesn't want to get embarrassed again like the last time they played.  Who caught a TD pass?  Rod Rutherford?  Wasn't he a QB?   I guess until that old fossil leaves we'll just keep beating the teams that end up beating you....Iowa anyone? 

Since: Sep 17, 2007
Posted on: June 16, 2009 9:57 pm

Picking the Big Ten

Nice job of jumping on the USC bandwagon, State Penn. Wanny and the Pitt-iful Pansies sure haven't given you anything to cheer about, have they? Tell me again how many sons of former Pitt players recently committed to Penn State -- three, wasn't it? Pretty sad that the Stache can't keep Pitt talent close to campus. Guess that's why you guys are P-U.

Thanks for playing, loser; you've been exposed. Next contestant, please.

Since: Sep 7, 2006
Posted on: June 16, 2009 9:53 pm

Picking the Big Ten

Lets us not forget the beatdown OSU gave Penn State in 2002, 2003, 2004, AND 2006!  So Penn State beat us 2 out of 6 years!  BIG FREAKING DEAL! 

Oh and PS when was the last time PSU won a national title?

Its been a while.  I think it was even before Joe Pa started to have to wear Depends....

Since: Oct 30, 2008
Posted on: June 16, 2009 8:57 pm

Picking the Big Ten

Rrrrrrright.  You meant USC correct?  The team that spanked both of you Big 10 losers last year and had three prime time LBs drafted.  Give me a break...linebacker U....whatever

Since: Oct 29, 2006
Posted on: June 16, 2009 8:49 pm

Picking the Big Ten

This was one of the smartest and most honest statements I have ever seen on these boards in regards to Michigan football.  I am a HUGE Lloyd Carr fan but I knew it was time for him to go.  I definitely like Lloyd as a coach more than I did Bo...just being honest.  However, just as you said LLOYD CARR DIDN'T DO A POOR JOB RECRUITING, HE DID A POOR JOB MODERNIZING HIS TEAM.  I don't like people saying he did a poor job recruiting because its evident he didn't in his year after year recruiting rankings.  I think the team Rich Rod got was pretty weak in terms of "ready" talent.  Best OL jake long, RB Mike Hart, gone, best two receivers Arrington, Manningham, gone, and not to mention a four year starting QB Henne...BTW...aren't all these guys in the NFL now? We took a hit, but we'll be back!

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