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Blog Entry

Picking the Big 12

Posted on: June 29, 2009 3:01 pm
Edited on: June 30, 2009 12:09 pm
 


The Big 12 South Division race, the Big 12 title game, the Heisman race and the national championship hinged on the conference's three-way tiebreaker. We found out about the 11-year-old rule when Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech each tied at 7-1 in the South Division.

Oklahoma "won" the tiebreaker because it finished the regular season as the highest-ranked team in the division  -- by .0128 of a point in the BCS standings. Instead of reliving the Austin angst, let's just say that one Longhorn suggested that if the tiebreaker rule wasn't changed in the offseason his school ought to pull out of the Big 12.

What's changed? Not much. The rule wasn't changed and Texas is still in the league. At the spring meetings, the Big 12 ADs accepted the coaches' vote that the tiebreaker remain the same. Why?

 One theory is that Texas probably doesn't get much sympathy from the other coaches because ... it's Texas. The school is perceived to have the best of everything so it didn't get much sympathy from schools that don't. Yeah, jealousy sucks.

 There is nothing to be gained for schools like Missouri, Iowa State, Colorado, Baylor, etc., so why change? Hey, the league got two teams in the BCS. To the other schools it doesn't matter who plays in those games as long as the money keeps rolling in.

 The tiebreaker makes sense. Why wouldn't you want your highest rated BCS team to win the tiebreaker? There was some feeling that the SEC tiebreaker is fairer.

In a three-way tie, the SEC drops the lowest-ranked team and decides things head-to-head. But since you're chasing a BCS title, the SEC tiebreaker potentially keeps the highest-ranked team out of a title shot.

The tiebreaker would have been a footnote on the national scene had not Texas and Oklahoma been involved. The rivalry was bitter enough without having to explain why the Horns lost out when they beat the Sooners on the field. Yeah, Oklahoma's fortune might cause a bit of consternation in Austin.

"They got a huge break," Texas' Colt McCoy said.

Like I said, nothing has changed. Texas and OU still hate each other. There is a good chance we could have another tiebreaker train wreck at the end of this season. Only the teams will change.


Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State could all start the season in the top 10. The Red River Shootout on Oct. 17 shapes up as one of the most intense in the history of the rivalry. Just for controversy's sake let's assume the Horns win in Dallas, they still have to play in Stillwater on Halloween. If the Cowboys win they could win out until a Nov. 28 date in Norman. If the Sooners win that one, we're looking at another three-way 7-1 finish.

Who wins it in the BCS tiebreaker? In that scenario, you'd have to like Oklahoma again. The Texas loss would be six weeks old by then and beating Oklahoma State impressively would be the emphatic final statement for the computers the pollsters. That same thing happened last year when OU blew out Texas Tech.

Closer to the field, for the second consecutive year the Large Dozen remains the conference of quarterbacks. It sports a Heisman winner (Sam Bradford), a runner-up (Colt McCoy) and well as 2009 Heisman candidate Todd Reesing of Kansas. You can add Oklahoma State's Zac Robinson, Baylor's Robert Griffin and Texas Tech quarterback du jour Taylor Potts as difference makers.

Just giving you a fair warning, Texas fans. Grow your hair out now. You might be pulling it out in December.

Picking the Big 12 ...


North Division

1. Kansas -- If this were Miami, Dezmon Briscoe, Kerry Meier and Reesing would be on the cover of every preseason mag in the country. Meier is the leading returning receiver in catches per game (10.8). Briscoe is second in receiving yards per game (108.2). Reesing already has led the Jayhawks to an Orange Bowl and is in line to become the school's best quarterback ever. Mark Mangino already has proven he can coach. If a new set of starting linebackers can tackle and if KU can beat either Oklahoma, Texas or Texas Tech (he is a combined 0-9 against the three) this could be a special season. The Jayhawks get the slight edge in the North because the Nebraska game is at home.

2. Nebraska -- Bo Pelini is slowly building Huskerville back to its usual standards. Slowly is the key word because defense is Pelini's thing and the D showed astounding lapses last year. Slowly, because Nebraska has not had a first-team All-American on the defensive line in 12 years. Tackle Ndamukong Suh could break the streak. Some draft boards already have him in the top five. There is little room for error where Pelini is a turned ankle away from having real problems at quarterback. Zac Lee is the guy after Patrick Witt, who was being counted on, left before the spring. A lot of folks think Nebraska has the advantage in the North because of its schedule. I see road trips to Missouri, Baylor, Kansas and Colorado, plus a home game against Oklahoma. Please tell me how that is favorable?

3. Missouri -- The Tigers will take a dip after back-to-back Big 12 North titles. Missouri knows it. The fans know it. The league knows it. The key is trying to make an 8-4 season seem like a success. Six-foot-five Blaine Gabbert takes over for Chase Daniel, only the greatest qb in Missouri history. He would be wise to spread the ball out to 1,000-yard rusher Derrick Washington and receivers Danario Alexander and Jared Perry. The Tigers will score, just not as often. If the defense is shored up at all this team could be on the fringes of contending in the North. At times, the secondary looked like a fire drill. Linebacker All-American linebacker candidate Sean Weatherspoon passed up the draft and will chase the school's career tackles record as a senior.

4. Colorado -- Has Hawk Love turned into Hawk Doubt? Entering his fourth season in Boulder, Dan Hawkins has won only 13 games. The pressure is on to produce (hint: Big 12 North contention and a bowl game). Hawkins isn't backing down, saying this at the senior banquet: "Ten wins, no excuses." The quarterback situation is unsettled with son Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen maybe sharing the job again. Freshman tailback sensation Darrell Scott was upstaged by fellow freshman Rodney Stewart who led the team in rushing. Here's the scary thing: In a league with unrelenting offenses, CU has lost six of its top 10 tacklers.

5. Kansas State -- This isn't the old Big Eight for Bill Snyder. Back in 1989, he was taking over Kansas State from a zero position. This time he is chasing his own legacy. Not to diminish what Snyder accomplished, but back in the early 1990s, Missouri and Kansas were jokes and Oklahoma was sliding. There was no Texas to play two out of every four years. The Big 12 has more depth and strength than the Big Eight as Snyder tries for Miracle In Manhattan II. Snyder got K-State from dregs to the brink of a national championship game in nine years. Will the 69-year-old have that much time this time around?

6. Iowa State -- Iowa State swapped coaches with Auburn. Gene Chizik went. Paul Rhoads came. Rhoads, from nearby Ankeny, seems like he wants to stay awhile. He'll be looking up at the rest of the Big 12 North for a while. Ripping Wally Burham from South Florida to be his defensive coordinator was a huge get for Rhoads. The offense will have a chance with dual-threat Austen Arnaud at quarterback


South Division

1. Texas -- Mack Brown smiled when I told I had his pregame speech ready for the OU game. "We beat the Sooners last year, boys. Now let's go out and get some revenge!" Yeah, it's about that and a lot of things for Brown and the Horns. Except for perhaps some suspect running backs, Texas is loaded. Brown has his best team since the 2005 national championship crew. Hybrid defensive end/linebacker Sergio Kindle should be this season's Brian Orakpo. McCoy is driven not only by the tiebreaker but also his second-place finish in the Heisman. Still, it all boils down to Oct. 17 in Dallas.

2. Oklahoma -- Sam Bradford won the Heisman, became the first quarterback to win back-to-back Big 12 titles and got the Sooners to the national championship game. What is there left to accomplish? Plenty for Bradford who listened to family and advisors and put off the NFL. His body can fill out a bit and it doesn't look like there will be a Matthew Stafford to compete with in the draft this year. Oklahoma's questions are at offensive line and receiver. If this were anywhere else but the Big 12 South, the Sooners would be prohibitive favorites to repeat. With a break here or there, they still might end back up in the national championship game.

3. Oklahoma State -- With apologies to Texas and Oklahoma, this could be the best offense in the Big 12, if not the country. Returning are a 1,500-yard rusher (Kendall Hunter), an All-American receiver (Dez Bryant), and a 65 percent passer with 25 touchdowns (Robinson). The problem remains defense. New defensive coordinator Bill Young is the Cadillac of his profession. Okie State will be better just because of his presence. Perrish Cox is developing into an NFL talent at corner and is one of the nation's best returners.

4. Texas Tech -- The Red Raiders slip back to the 8-4 level this season. You know the drill: Potts will throw for eight million yards. There will be a 1,000-yard receiver or two. Mike Leach will be his usual quote-machine self. However, last season was a once-in-10-year event. There is payback waiting at Texas, at Oklahoma State and at Nebraska.

5. Baylor -- Does any Big 12 school have more upside? Joe Pawelek is an All-Big 12 linebacker. Center J.D. Walton anchors the offensive line now that Jason Smith is gone. But let's be honest, the moment quarterback Robert Griffin followed coach Art Briles to Baylor (from his commitment to Houston), things took off. A sprinter with Olympic aspirations, Griffin gave up the Big 12 track season to concentrate on what should be his breakout season in Waco. If there is a one-man team in the league, this is it. Griffin also was the team's No. 2 rusher. With more weight and more knowledge, Griffin should become the most elusive dual-threat in the Big 12 since Vince Young. At stake is a 14-year bowl drought. That ties for the longest active streak among BCS schools.

6. Texas A&M -- One former Big Eight coach said it during the offseason: This is A&M. It should be able to go over to the Houston high schools and scrounge up a couple of defensive linemen. In Mike Sherman's second season, d-line is a good place to start. The one-time Wrecking Crew was Charmin soft as one of the worst defensive units in the country. After the non-conference games, the Aggies gave up less than 35 once. Once! Nineteen players had surgery in the offseason. The Aggies better get fat early. The season ends with Oklahoma, Baylor and Texas.
 

Comments

Since: Dec 7, 2006
Posted on: June 30, 2009 5:07 pm
 

Picking the Big 12

As far as your Baylor prediction, I've got one word for you: DEFENSE. I'm sick and tired of hearing about this Robert Griffin character. I saw him play last year and the only conclusion that I could come up with is that he's a Vince Young make-yourself-at-home kit. One man doesn't win games, an entire team does. If the defense can't stop anyone, not even one QB is gonna be able to save them. The reason Vince and Texas won in their National Championship season was because he had a balanced offense that suited him and the defense was outstanding with Derrik Johnson and the Griffin(?) twins in the backfield.

Tech has a knack of reloading every season regardless of who they lose, even Harrell and Crabtree. They might have the best RB in the Big XII this year in Baron Batch and their defensive front is one of the best as well. FACT- Tech is the only school since the inception of the Big XII to have a winning record and be bowl eligible. Look it up.

As far as A&M goes, well who know. This team has so many what if's that I don't think they can overcome them. However, their schedule sets up perfectly for them with all of their non-conference games at Kyle Field with the exception of Arkansas, which is played at the new Cowboys stadium, so you might as well call it a home game. Their hardest road conference games are at Oklahoma and at Tech. Their hardest home games include Texas and Oklahoma St, if you want to throw Baylor in their, you need to have your head checked. I could easily see an 8-4 season, but would settle for 7-5 or even 6-6 with a crap bowl appearance.

My Big XII South predictions?

1.Oklahoma
2.Texas
3.Oklahoma St
4.Texas Tech
5.Texas A&M
6.Baylor

Same sh*t, different season.



Since: Jul 12, 2007
Posted on: June 30, 2009 4:59 pm
 

Picking the Big 12

Does anyone really want to see whatever crummy team the North produces this year get plastered by OU, OSU, or TX?  No.  My main problem with the Big 12 is that the championship games pretty much never deliver,It use to mean a whole bunch. The BIG 12 use to have great champ games, but somehow the North teams just havent kept up with the recruiting that the south has done. Therefore you see a drop in competition.



Since: Jun 17, 2009
Posted on: June 30, 2009 4:57 pm
 

Picking the Big 12

"4. Texas Tech -- The Red Raiders slip back to the 8-4 level this season. You know the drill: Potts will throw for eight million yards. There will be a 1,000-yard receiver or two. Mike Leach will be his usual quote-machine self. However, last season was a once-in-10-year event. There is payback waiting at Texas, at Oklahoma State and at Nebraska."
The NFL wasn't too impressed with Harrell, so if they are right, Pott's measurables may produce the most effective QB Leach has prepped. Crabtree's absence will open up the field more than the previous 2 years and could keep opposing D's flustered. I have a feeling that Tech has a stable full of quality receivers. RB Batch is a year more experienced. If a better record than 8-4 is achievable, it will be attained by an improved defense and special teams. Tech's recruiting has seen an uptick on paper, so the question is, are the younger D players actually better athletes than the previous year?



Since: Dec 4, 2006
Posted on: June 30, 2009 4:45 pm
 

Picking the Big 12

coming from the Alabama fan whose team was dominated by Utah?



Since: Nov 20, 2008
Posted on: June 30, 2009 4:40 pm
 

Picking the Big 12

I forgot wasn't the big left tackle from baylor that was drafted top ten last year wasn;t he a tight end.  I believe he was, I am sick of you nebraska fans thinking you know everything since you beat us last year.  Also thinking that your coach is so fricken good he hasn't prooved anything yet when you have a defense that is ranked 109 nationally, you can't get any worse you can only get better so quite thinking your defense is back to the way it was.



Since: Jan 2, 2007
Posted on: June 30, 2009 4:33 pm
 

Picking the Big 12

Seriously Rosey,

Why in the world would you not double-check such an erroneous statement as "Bradford has never beat Texas"?  It's not like you can overlook it--it happened TWO YEARS AGO!!!  Let me guess...Vince Young never lost to OU either, right?  The internet stores facts and data all the way back to 2007, if you can believe that.  Try it out sometime...



Since: Jun 30, 2009
Posted on: June 30, 2009 4:05 pm
 

Picking the Big 12

I think Bradford beat Texa$ in 2007 by the score of 28-21.  If Reynolds doesn't get hurt, OU was well on its way to another win last year.  Now OU has LB Depth so such an injury won't matter.  Sooners will win easily.  



Since: Apr 17, 2009
Posted on: June 30, 2009 2:46 pm
 

Picking the Big 12

You might possibly be right Crimson, but with the beating you guys took from Utah, I wouldn't be talking too much smack.  But one year does not make a conference and I seem to remember OU going to play USC and getting smacked in the National Championship and a bunch of you saying the same thing you're saying now.  What happened that following year?  Oh yes, Texas went to USC's back yard and won a great game for the National Title.  I see no reason that can't happen again this year and personally, I will love seeing Tebow cry after losing to Bevo's boys.



Since: Apr 16, 2009
Posted on: June 30, 2009 2:36 pm
 

Picking the Big 12

Texas will win the BIG 12 South and we'll be in the national championship!  There is no way that OU, OSU, Tech or any of the other BIG 12 teams will touch us this year.  We will be the national champions revenge will be sweet.  Watch and see!



Since: Apr 16, 2009
Posted on: June 30, 2009 2:31 pm
 

Picking the Big 12

OU will not beat Texas!!  There is no way that Texas will lose to OU not this year.  We are lot better this year and due to the outcome of last year WE WILL WIN again.


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com