Blog Entry

Breaking down the polls and Heisman race

Posted on: September 14, 2009 4:34 pm
Edited on: September 15, 2009 9:54 am
 

USC walks into the belly of the beast, slays Ohio State with a dramatic game-winning drive and picks up two first-place votes in the coaches’ poll. One in AP.

Obviously, Florida is still the overwhelming No. 1 in both polls but I’m already starting to wonder what it would take to pass the Gators if they keep winning. The two teams below them are from different conferences (Texas, USC) and don’t play each other. No. 4 Alabama doesn’t play Florida in the regular season.

At first glance, Florida looks safe. It has 56 of the 60 first-place votes in the AP poll and 56 of the 59 votes on the coaches’ poll. Those numbers didn't change after the Gators mopped The Swamp with Troy, 56-6. 

The other teams getting first-place votes are Texas (one in AP), USC (a combined four) and Alabama (two in AP).

The rest of the way Florida plays only two teams that are currently ranked (LSU and Georgia). Same for Alabama (Ole Miss, LSU). Texas faces five ranked teams (Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State and Kansas). USC plays one (Cal, Oregon State).

Alabama had a similar lead at No. 1 before it lost to Florida in last year’s SEC title game. The Tide had 58 of the 61 first-place votes going in. After Bama lost and Oklahoma and Florida won their championship games, the final regular-season coaches’ poll was the closest in the BCS era.

Oklahoma (31 first-place votes, 1,482 points) ended up one point ahead of Florida (26 first-place votes, 1,481 points). Third-place Texas had four and 1,408.

Just for grins, I figured up the top six final regular-season first-place vote getters since 2004:

1. USC, 90 1/3 points
2. Ohio State, 62
3.  Oklahoma, 49 1/3
4. Florida, 26
5. LSU, Texas, 11
6. Auburn, 9 1/3

 One of the better poll results Saturday was Florida State beating Jacksonville State. I know, I know, FSU has looked shaky and isn’t ranked.

But this is about BYU. The Cougs need FSU to win as often as possible, aside from this week when the Noles go to Provo. If FSU somehow gets back into the polls, BYU could make a more solid case for playing for the national championship. If it goes undefeated, it would have beaten four ranked teams (Oklahoma, Florida State, TCU and Utah). 

If you’re wondering where this going consider that total would be more than Florida, LSU or USC.

 If the BCS championship game were played today, it would be USC vs. Alabama according to our old friend Jerry Palm. Check out the most accurate BCS projections and collegebcs.com.

 Live by the pass, die by the pass: SMU’s nine interceptions lead the country but it has thrown four interceptions which ties for third-most nationally ... Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen has thrown the most passes this season without an interception, 76 ... Purdue is  home of the leading rusher (Ralph Bolden) and the quarterback who is tied for No. 1 in interceptions. Joey Elliott is tied Tennessee's Jonathan Crompton. Each have six.


The right-now, no-hype, no-b.s., not-what-they-did last year Heisman rankings for this week

Case Keenum, Houston: When he lost his coach (Art Briles who went to Baylor) everyone thought Keenum would go in the tank, or transfer. He bonded immediately with second-year coach Kevin Sumlin who might make him a Heisman finalist. Keenum threw for 366 yards against Oklahoma State as the Cougars beat a top-five team for the first time in 25 years.

Tim Tebow, Florida: Four passing touchdowns and one rushing in the rain against Troy add to the legend.

Colt McCoy, Texas: Three passing touchdowns against Wyoming in Texas’ 15th consecutive non-conference win. That ties a school record.

Max Hall, BYU: A week after beating Oklahoma, Hall gets a rocking-chair game against Tulane. Led the Cougars to scores in seven of eight possessions.

Dion Lewis, Pittsburgh: A workhorse freshman who is averaging 7.4 yards per carry.

 

 

Comments

Since: Oct 10, 2006
Posted on: November 5, 2009 2:59 pm
 

Breaking down the polls and Heisman race

"Um, I know your team is great and all but how 'bout you get to the SEC title game first?"
Done. Smile



Since: Oct 10, 2006
Posted on: September 20, 2009 2:49 pm
 

Breaking down the polls and Heisman race

"Um, I know your team is great and all but how 'bout you get to the SEC title game first?"
It wasn't meant to sound like we're automatically going to win the SEC East... but we ARE talking about national title contenders, and discussing who would be selected to play in the national championship game. Any SEC team being considered for that would almost certainly have to play in (and probably win) the SECCG first. If we lose 2-3 games and don't go to Atlanta, then it's all a moot point and we won't be comparing our schedule strength to anyone else when we go to the Citrus Bowl.
True, the SECCG opponent is not written in stone, but the odds are the SEC West representative will be highly-ranked. Maybe even #1 again. All we can go by this early in the season is probabilities. Heck, all those teams BYU plays could drop out of the rankings. Actually, since FSU already beat BYU, and Utah dropped out, I'd say that whole conversation is pretty much moot anyway.
Oh, and Florida didn't dominate yesterday, but they're still on track to get to the SECCG. =)



Since: Sep 30, 2008
Posted on: September 16, 2009 6:24 pm
 

Breaking down the polls and Heisman race

As a BYU fan I have to say I don't see any problem with an undefeated SEC team or an undefeated Big12 team (except OU) going to the NCG ahead of BYU (assuming that happens...it's still a long road).  But I think there would have to be debate as to whether an undefeated Pac10 team or Big10 team goes ahead of BYU.  The real problem I see in the system is that (as was proven a couple years ago) it won't blink to send an undefeated WVU, Boston College, or USF team ahead of a MWC team.  This is where even a plus-one format would be great in that you could take four different conference champions and see who deserves it. 
It's not even all about money is the weird thing.  Of course Ohio State, USC or Texas will bring more money than BYU, but not WVU, BC or USF (have you seen an ACC championship game lately...embarassing, while on the other hand, BYU put at least as many fans in the crowd in New Orleans as Tulane).  



Since: Mar 11, 2009
Posted on: September 16, 2009 11:20 am
 

Breaking down the polls and Heisman race

"That's just not true. Florida plays LSU, Georgia, FSU, and the SEC West champion (who will almost certainly be ranked). You can't count FSU for BYU but not for us. And it's pretty unfair to simply ignore the SECCG, where we only had to play the #1 team in the country last year."

Um, I know your team is great and all but how 'bout you get to the SEC title game first?



Since: Oct 14, 2007
Posted on: September 15, 2009 2:16 pm
 

Breaking down the polls and Heisman race

When you say "playing the #3", you must mean playing Oklahoma (more or less) on the road. Everyone knows there is great football played in the SEC. I'm a BYU fan and don't think they should play for the national title unless they earn it.  If Texas and Florida (or some other SEC team, or probably USC though I'm not convinced yet) are undefeated at the end of the conference championsip games, they should play for the title. But many fans of the SEC (and other BCS teams) simply can't listen to reason. How many SEC teams do you really believe would beat Oklahoma this year and win the rest of BYU's games? Would USC, Cal, Ohio State or Penn State? We'll never know. (Please don't embarass yourself by guaranteeing all sorts of victories by any of those teams over OU, TCU, Utah and FSU. Fla. and Miss. still haven't played anyone, LSU hasn't looked that impressive in their victories, Ala. seems to be for real but they also got beat soundly by Utah last year after looking great all season. More to the point, nobody really knows how good any of these teams are yet. Arguments about why Fla. or Ala. are great that go back to last season either apply almost as much to Oklahoma or end in an ugly Sugar Bowl loss to Utah). What we do know is that BYU beat OU and will have to beat some other very good teams to go undefeated. The latter part of that statement is also true for anyone who goes undefeated in a BCS conference. Having said that, the point, which a lot of fans in the BCS world aren't getting is that what you do on the field should matter more than what conference you play in. Every college football fan who is arguing for a playoff is making the same argument. BYU has a lot of work to do to go undefeated and to beat their lesser opponents convincingly, but if they do, is their body of work really any less impressive than an undefeated USC, Penn State or Cal, or a one-loss SEC or Big 12 team?

Erase the names of the teams on the schedule. Compare a team with a win over #3, wins over a team or two #20-30 and most of the rest of its games convincing wins over teams between #30-70 to a team with a win over a different #3, a win over a team #10-15, another win over a team #15-20, and convincing wins over several teams between #30-80. Which team plays for the title? It's not so obvious to me. The example here is BYU vs. Cal. Do you know which is Cal and which is BYU? It would look less even if the example were Penn State becase their big win would be over a team closer to #10 and maybe 1 or 2 wins over teams ranked 18-25. I don't think there's much question an undefeated Cal or Penn State would be ranked ahead of an undefeated BYU at the end of the year because of the conference they play in but it's ridiculous that voters will vote based on conference rather than schedule and that's the point.

P.S. I agree that playing #3 is not the same as playing #23, but you can't use that argument against BYU this year.




Since: Feb 23, 2009
Posted on: September 15, 2009 11:05 am
 

Breaking down the polls and Heisman race

What about Jarrett Brown..........

PAC%  75%
PATD   4
RUTD  0  
INT     1.
..0 sacks

In 2 games.......43 of 57 =  75% completion rate....577 yds. =  288.5 yds / game
      
;     &nbs
p;     &nb
sp;      19 rushes for 141 yds = 7.3 yds/ rush
      
;     &nbs
p;     &nb
sp;      QB rating of 180.2

#8 in total Offense nationally

These aren't stats to sneeze at ............



Since: Oct 9, 2008
Posted on: September 15, 2009 9:11 am
 

What about Tony Pike?

Just some stats for you to consider. Hands down the best stats through two games yet you list Dion Lewis?? If you were going to pick a running back you'd at least have to go with Jahvid Best...Come on Dodd!

Tim Tebow
PAC%     64.1
PATD     &
nbsp;    5
RUTD     &
nbsp;   2
INT     &n
bsp;      0

Tony Pike
PAC%     77.2
PATD     &
nbsp;    6
RUTD     &
nbsp;   1
INT     &n
bsp;      1

Colt McCoy
PAC%     67.1
PATD     &
nbsp;    5
RUTD     &
nbsp;   1
INT     &n
bsp;      2

Max Hall
PAC%     71.4
PATD     &
nbsp;    4
RUTD     &
nbsp;   0
INT     &n
bsp;      3



Since: Nov 20, 2008
Posted on: September 14, 2009 8:49 pm
 

Breaking down the polls

The BCS formula takes into account the rank of the opponents. There is a big or little gift at the end of the season, for having played an actual, current top ten opponent.Let's look at BYU's schedule and LSU's.  Hmmm, there are presently three teams in the top ten, coming up on LSU"s schedule.     If Florida State makes it back to being ranked #17 by the end of the year and beats Va Tech, already defeated by Bama, that wont register much on the BCS computer formula.Whereas,  LSU will be playing Ole Miss in game 10,  when its possible Ole Miss will still be undefeated.  If Ole Miss wins that one and then plays an undefeated Florida, Ole Miss would have a FEW highly ranked opponents on its resume.LSU, Florida and Ole Miss and Bama all have a better chance of racking up points with the BCS computer. Their actual problem is that they all have to play top ten teams all season long, and BYU doesnt.  There is a world of difference between playing the #23 and playing the #3.



Since: May 3, 2009
Posted on: September 14, 2009 8:12 pm
 

WHAT ABOUT JAHVID BEST!

why is jahvid best the running back for CAL in there



Since: Oct 10, 2006
Posted on: September 14, 2009 5:27 pm
 

Breaking down the polls and Heisman race

You said: "If [BYU] goes undefeated, it would have beaten four ranked teams (Oklahoma, Florida State, TCU and Utah). If you’re wondering where this going consider that total would be more than Florida, LSU or USC."
That's just not true. Florida plays LSU, Georgia, FSU, and the SEC West champion (who will almost certainly be ranked). You can't count FSU for BYU but not for us. And it's pretty unfair to simply ignore the SECCG, where we only had to play the #1 team in the country last year.


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