(This is next installment of a continuing series analyzing the 2010 schedules of the BCS conferences)
You thought the Big 12 has been good lately? Year 15 of the conference kicks off with three familiar names at the top. At least two of the three are familiar.
Even with the loss of Colt McCoy, Texas never rebuilds (or is never allowed to). Oklahoma is over the loss of Sam Bradford as Landry Jones begins his first full season as starter. Nebraska is a fallen power making the long, slow slog back to the top. It hopes. But the Huskers are all the buzz coming off a 10-win season and sporting one of the nation's defenses -- even without a boy named Suh.
Elsewhere, there is depth throughout the Big 12. Missouri has established itself as a top 25 team every year. Texas Tech can only get better under Tommy Tuberville after Mike Leach's conduct going out the door almost ripped the program apart. Oklahoma State isn't going away with the Boone Pickens pipeline still running and Texas A&M is making strides, at least offensively. Baylor gets Robert Griffin back trying to end that pesky 15-year bowl-less streak.
Expect another national championship run, by some league team or another. A Big 12 team has been in five of the last seven BCS title games.
Game of the year: (non-conference) Florida State at Oklahoma, Sept. 11. In a sense, the suspense has been building for a decade. These teams last met in the 2000 BCS title game. Florida State is a shell of itself. Oklahoma not quite as strong as in the past. Watch for a rare Stoops vs. Stoops matchup. This time it's Oklahoma's Bob against FSU's Mark, the Seminoles new defensive coordinator. But there's so much more at stake here. This is essentially Jimbo Fisher's first real test (the opener is against Samford). It comes on the road in one of the game's most revered temples. We know FSU can score with Christian Ponder and other significant weapons. But for the Seminoles to get back to the top, it must start stopping people. God bless Mickey Andrews, but his final defense stunk. It's up to you, Mark.
Game of the year: (conference) Oklahoma vs. Texas, Oct. 16. As goes the Red River Shootout, so goes the Big 12. Or so it seems. The winner of this game usually has the inside track to the Big 12 South and national championship contention. Texas is a roll having won four of the last five. Included in that streak is two Big 12 titles, two national championship berths, one national championship. Or as they call it in Austin, "Doing pretty good lately."
Team on the spot: Nebraska. After a 10-win, Holiday Bowl-winning season in Bo Pelini's second year, we're all wondering if the Huskers are truly back. The Flying Pelinis will go into 2010 as favorites to win the North. At least. The next step is to win the Big 12 for the first time since 1999. Nebraska was one playmaker on offense -- one -- away from beating Texas last season. Armed with a fearsome defense, the only question for Pelini is whether his offense can score enough to make 10-2 a reality. Nebraska almost pulled off the upset last year. The toughest games (Texas, Missouri) are at home. Oklahoma is off the regular-season schedule.
Toughest non-conference schedule: Colorado. No surprise here. The Buffs haven't backed off in the non-con since the Bill McCartney days. Good for building a program, not good for keeping your job. Dan Hawkins starts a win-or-else season with Colorado State, Cal, Hawaii and Georgia outside of the Big 12. That's a blood rival, a Pac-10 team that tied USC for third in the Pac-10 and a Georgia team on the rebound. The only game you'd feel confident of putting in the win column is Hawaii and even that might be a stretch. CSU has split the last four meetings. CU has split the last four against the Pac-10 on the road but hasn't won in a Pac-10 stadium since 2004. Georgia is an SEC powerhouse coming off a down year but will be favored in Boulder. A 3-1 start is recommended. A 2-2 beginning might not be enough for Hawkins who has to play Missouri, Oklahoma and Nebraska on the road.
Easiest non-conference schedule: Missouri. The Tigers have beaten Illinois five consecutive times. McNeese State has never beaten a team from a current BCS conference. San Diego State last beat a team from a current BCS conference in 1999. Miami (Ohio) has lost 23 of its last 26. Throw in a home game against Colorado after that and the Tigers don't have to leave the state of Missouri to start 5-0.
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North-I'm guessing Nebraska defensively will be just a shade down from the way they ended last year but offensively, they are a good unit but not a great unit but should be good enough to win the North without a problem. I'm actually picking the Iowa St/Nebraska game the game of the North.
Missouri loses some play-makers and Gabbert suffers from Jason White/OU syndrome-he can't stay healthy enough. K-State with Snyder gives them an edge in fundamentals and intangibles, but do they have enough talent? K-State is the Texas Tech of the north.
Right off Colorado and Kansas; Kansas lost their key playmakers so Gill has some work and Colorado just has a cloud following it. The swing is how healthy Iowa State stays with their brutal schedule and lack of talent (but great team work) to upset the North. I think Nebraska comes out on top if they perform consistently.
The South-Oklahoma St is the swing team (like Iowa St) and how they perform against Nebraska, K-State, and Kansas will determine how the conference shakes out - and if they can beat Tech in Lubbock to break the home team winning the series. OSU winning 2 out of 3 and beating Texas Tech (IMHO) would mean the Big12 is severly down; if they beat Nebraska, then it is up to Texas or OU to represent the conference again and probably hurt recruiting for the North again.
Texas has their one marquee game in UCLA (and props their continued California spot recruiting) - otherwise, outside of Nebraska, they have a favorable season with Tech being down and OU is the major game. OU has Florida State but the rest are beatable so it hinges solely on the Texas game after that. OU will be able to better protect Landry, but defensively will be down - I think that makes me lean toward Texas winning the conference but the Nebraska game is the tough one. Oklahoma State and Tech are dead even for the 3rd spot but Tech has the advantage with the home game between the two - but can Tubberville get them cohesive enough? Tech has a great system and has the ability to create role players but doesn't appear to have much left on defense nor a standout offensively. Can OSU find playmaker receivers for Weed? OSU will have an improved defense but offensively, doesn't have visible playmakers to replace Robinson, Okung, and Bryant.
Sorry-but I'm writing off A&M (although a ton of talent, just can't seem to put it all together and until they prove it on the field, just can't see them competiting yet) and Baylor. Griffin is a playmaker, but Baylor needs to get him support and against better balanced teams, Baylor games are just a matter of attrition due to overall talent.
So yes, same song, 7th verse - it's Oklahoma or Texas (Texas I'm guessing by a hair) and Nebraska fans have a shot at BCS dropping Oklahoma to Cotton (or mix the 3 around in any configuration will be just as appropriate at this stage). Holiday? I'll go out on the limb and say Tech right now but we'll see as the season progresses.