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Blog Entry

How expansion could be stalled

Posted on: April 28, 2010 9:18 pm
Edited on: April 28, 2010 9:20 pm
 

Let's say the Big Ten doesn't have all the leverage in expansion.

Let's say the conference has been warned. Warned beyond Mike Slive's cryptic threat last week in Phoenix.

Let's say that if the Big Ten gets too big, too quick it could be met with a crippling retaliatory strike from the SEC. Let's say that strike could vault the SEC past the Big Ten in the current revenue pecking order.

That's what this is all about in the first place -- the Big Ten pumping $22 million per year to its teams and keeping the SEC in second place ($17 million per team). If the Big Ten senses that it could lose its position in the marketplace then expansion could be off, or extremely limited.

For the sake of argument, let's assume that Notre Dame is out of play for the Big Ten. The question I've asked from the beginning still exists: What combination of teams bring at least $22 million a year to the table for the Big Ten? I can't think of a combo although the Chicago Tribune quoted a league source a while ago saying, "We can all get richer if we get the right team or teams."

Richer, maybe, but not richer than the SEC?

What that source didn't point out was the SEC may be able to call and raise the Big Ten in this high stakes game of Hold 'Em. Make that Texas Hold 'Em. If the SEC can potentially out-earn the Big Ten that tells me that Texas may be in play for the SEC. If not the Longhorns then certainly Miami and Florida State. Maybe Miami, Florida State and Texas.

Look at this way: If the SEC can get Miami, Florida State, Texas and Texas A&M that potentially brings the South Florida and state of Texas markets into the league. The SEC would own the South even more than it does now. It would reach from Texas to the Deep South to South Florida. Think a league that contained the Gators, Noles and Canes be any good?

According to industry sources, most television contracts in these cases can be re-opened and renegotiated in cases of such radical membership change.

 Would such a move be enough to pass whatever expansion package the Big Ten can put together? Let's say the Big Ten has been warned. Facing that kind of uncertainty, the league might back off. Call it mutual disarmament.
 

Comments

Since: Jan 28, 2007
Posted on: May 9, 2010 5:20 pm
 

How expansion could be stalled

My error.  It was the SWC, not the Big Eight.  I knew that, and yet, I still typed it.  But there is no loyalty to the Big XII brand, and the conference remains at a distinct disadvantage, even though Texas is a huge moneymaker.  Why do you think so many schools in the Big XII are considered viable targets for other conferences?  Why do you think the SEC/Big Ten schools are considered untouchable?
Come on.  A Texas move does not have to be "agreed" to by other schools.   The problem they have is with state legislator's agreeing to a move.  Texas and Texas A&M are considered a package deal in part because of the influence of state legislators, but I think you're crazy if you think those 4 are a package deal.  Baylor is a PRIVATE school.   That's like saying Duke has to get permission for UNC to move, or that Cal can't decide to do things without Stanford's permission.  Schools can leave a conference very easily, usually by just paying a fee and waiting a period of time.  The problem with Texas will always be getting the permission of their BoD and often state legislators.  Texas Tech doesn't have that much pull in the state government if Texas and Texas A&M wanted to go.  That being said, if Texas required those three as a precondition, the SEC would strongly consider it.  But they would like scoff at Baylor being part of any deal (whether right or wrong, people in the South continue to dislike Baylor for past indiscretions... and the SEC, while not known for their clean reputations, will not invite a school perceived to be a "bad boy.")
The problem with the Big XII just "adding" teams is... who in the hell are they going to add that's going to replace Missouri/Nebraska/Colorado?  Colorado State?  Puh-lease.  TCU?  A flavor-of-the month private school that delivers few viewers and that, although a likely perennial bowl team, would hit rough sailing in the Big XII.  Boise State?  See above, and Idaho doesn't exactly bring in the $$.  Arkansas is a freakin' pipe dream--they would never willingly give up $17M/yr in the SEC to join a conference where they would be treated as a permanent 2nd fiddle to Texas (and get $10M/yr less).  How much leverage do you think the Big XII will get in these TV deals, so long as expansion is in the air?  It will be a Texas heavy deal, which will likely be great for Texas... but can they really not do any better?
Fact is, Texas/Texas A&M will have to carry the conference.  They will have to willingly give up $$ in order to convince schools to remain a part of it. 
But you're right.  Expansion will not happen until 2012.  So, until then, we'll just be fantasizing.



Since: May 8, 2010
Posted on: May 8, 2010 11:52 pm
 

How expansion could be stalled

Hey Bud, that competition thing is a 'two-edged sword"...Alabama, Florida, LSU,Auburn would have to fave the Longhorns every year and that's not something I'd want to do if I were them and had National Championship Hopes....But, I promise and you can write this down, if Texas moves to another conference Academics will the first and higest criteria, then the money, then the travel problems, the competition will probably not have any effect at all on any decision....I thought everyone knew that the football coach does not make the decision to go to another conference...someone with a PHD after his last name will make that decision and at Texas Academics is the #1 thing, also the #2 thing, and #3 thing....the other considerations may have a small input into the final decision but the amount of money from research at Texas ($538,000,000 last year) dwarfs any amount that the athletic department might get from a new conference...and, schools with Championship Teams do not get additional research grants cause their team won a champsionship( i.e. Alabama which ranks about #400 on a list of world universities and has a pittance for research).



Since: Nov 17, 2007
Posted on: May 4, 2010 9:47 am
 

How expansion could be stalled

I think the point i was trying to make was missed....

My point was was that if the Big 10 went hunting for nerw schools to join, who or what was to say that some other conference might not poach on the Big Ten?

No, UConnJohn, your point was not missed. Some other conference migh consider poaching, but what could they offer that would be enough better to attact a team away from the Big Ten? How could going to the Big East benefit Northwestern or Iowa or Minnesota more than remaining in the Big Ten?

The CIC is $5.6 BILLION split 12 ways. The BTN is $22M per team. Class credits earned at one school are accepted at all the others. The list goes on and on, but one of the biggies is equitable division of athletic revenues. How many other conferences do it that way?

The point I was making is that the attractor arrows all point to the Big Ten.



Since: Aug 21, 2006
Posted on: May 3, 2010 3:46 pm
 

How expansion could be stalled

IF THE SEC EXPANDS NOTRE DAME WILL BE CRUSHED INTO OBLIVION with NO WAY OUT OF THE NIGHTMARE - if they havent already signed on with the BIG TEN. because the ACC (to replace what the SEC takes) will raide the last part of the BIG EAST (that the big ten hasnt taken) and the BIG EAST is gone.Nobody's coming from the ACC. There would be no interest either way concerning BC, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, N.C. State, North Carolina and Wake Forest. Georgia Tech already left the SEC once. Miami and Florida State don't want to be in a conference with Florida.

That leaves Clemson. The most important sport at Clemson will always be football. But I think the Tigers realize that their football program is better off in the ACC than trying to climb a mountain in the SEC. Clemson hasn't won an ACC title since 1991. No way it competes in the SEC.



Since: Aug 7, 2009
Posted on: May 3, 2010 11:01 am
 

Time Out.

Even if the SEC gets more money than the Big 10, who cares as long as the Big Ten is getting more money than they are right now.



Since: Mar 7, 2007
Posted on: May 2, 2010 11:26 am
 

How expansion could be stalled

Mwilson552:I don't see how the Big 12's academic qualifications merit Texas liking where it is.  The Big 12 is a modern construction, and one that formed solely because of the Big 8's collapse.  I don't think that Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State are tied to their Big 12 identity.  But they are likely a package deal.  Texas won't split without Texas A&M or Oklahoma.  And Oklahoma State goes with them.
And there's no way Texas is joining the Big Ten.  End that discussion now.
The Big XII came about after Arkansas left the Southwest Conference for the SEC.  The collapse was the Southwest Conference, not the Big Eight.
Any move the Longhorns make would have to be agreed to by the other Texas school, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and Baylor.

It's much more likely that the Big XII would add teams, rather than lose them.  The Big XII owns the trademark rights to the Big 14 and the Big 16.  They were claimed as the Big 12 was being formed.

One of the TV deals for the Big XII ends in 2012.  I don't see any expansion occuring until after the 2011 season.



Since: May 2, 2010
Posted on: May 2, 2010 10:33 am
 

How expansion could be stalled

This article is retarded.  No way never ever ever ever ever would Texas join the SEC.  Texas would go independant before it joined the junior college academia that is the SEC.





Since: Feb 28, 2009
Posted on: May 2, 2010 3:56 am
 

How expansion could be stalled

What?? This is what I call a writer grasping for straws! This is a joke, right?




Since: Apr 20, 2010
Posted on: May 1, 2010 9:40 pm
 

How expansion could be stalled

Where would Oklahoma end up?  Everyone is talking about Texas, A&M, Mo and Neb.  I can't see a viable conf out of Baylor, Rice, KSU, Okla, ISU, etc.



Since: Apr 20, 2010
Posted on: May 1, 2010 9:22 pm
 

How expansion could be stalled

What about the Big 10 is inferior.  Oh, right, football.  Right now, 3 schools in the SEC are even qualified to be considered by the Big 10 under the guidelines.  The Presidents and the CIC of the Big 10 is driving this bus, not the AD's.  The AD from Memphis (Johnson) in a recent radio interview pretty much answered all your questions.   Texas would love to share in the Big 10 research money and are one that would bring a good portion with it.


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