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Blog Entry

Finally, some closure in expansion. Maybe.

Posted on: June 9, 2010 7:45 am
 

Well, this is it.

Finally, some break in the ice pack that has frozen college athletics since the Big Ten maybe, kind of began exploring expansion in December. The Omaha World-Herald is reporting that Nebraska could go to the Big Ten by Friday.

Say goodbye to the Big 12.

Say hello to a bigger, bloated Pac-10.

Get used to two super conferences (Big Ten, Pac-10) -- at least.

Wish Nebraska luck in a strange, new world. The school was really forced into this move by Texas. Once Texas issued its "ultimatum" (or whatever you want to call it), Nebraska's fate was sealed. It could declare allegiance to the Big 12, but why? If the Big Ten offered, the money was too good. If Nebraska had to go back to the Big 12, the rancor was too much.

Imagine getting another deadline from the Horns in two years. Tom Osborne and Nebraska couldn't live like that. Now the school is the western boundary of the most powerful conference on earth. The bigger Big Ten will encompass more than 35 percent of the nation's population. Get used to Mike Rozier highlights on the Big Ten Network. Nebraska will be more attached to Chicago and New York than it will North Platte.

Is that a good thing? For Nebraska, it is the only thing. Twenty million is twenty million, reportedly poised to grow to $40 million per team if the Big Ten does this expansion right.

Category: NCAAF
Comments

Since: Dec 26, 2006
Posted on: June 9, 2010 2:49 pm
 

Finally, some closure in expansion. Maybe.

Nebraska has squat for TV markets. Loyal fans, yes. Great tradition in football, yes. How would they add to the total Big 10 TV package. It's all about TV sets. For the Big 10 to add Nebraska and ONLY Nebraska makes no sense money wise. The main reason behind the expansion is to increase the viability of the Big 10 network. Nebraska does not increase the network by any appreciable means.
TV Markets

21  St. Louis     
     MO  1,249,450
31  Kansas City      MO     941,360
74  Springfield    
    MO    422,740
76  Omaha     
      
;  NE     410,350
78  Cape Girardeau MO    399,690
105 Lincoln    &nbs
p;     &nb
sp;  NE     281,950
137 Columbia    &nb
sp;    MO    178,810
147 Joplin     
;     &nbs
p;   MO    155,670

The numbers speak for themselves. Nebraska by itself is not going to the Big 10. That said, I think the Big 10 is going to go to 16 teams. With the Pac 10 going, this is the time to make it happen. I think that if just Notre Dame went to the Big 10, it could do it with a commanding lead of TV sets, but I think ND would want concessions. I also think ND can thrive as an independent in football and that's what this is really about. If ND gets it back to the top 10, then they will fly. If they can't then they will shrivel up and then does the Big 10 really need them?
I think we will see both Missouri and Nebraska go to the Big 10. I don't know how the rest will fall out. I think they want Pitt but does Pitt want to go? Syracuse and Rutgers may still go. For all I know they may add Kansas. Iowa State could also be in the mix, but if they are I think it's filler. Kansas State and Connecticut are out as they are not AAU members.
Again though, Nebraska by itself does not make sense when it comes to expansion. They will not increase the Big 10 TV package.



Since: Feb 10, 2010
Posted on: June 9, 2010 2:45 pm
 

Finally, some closure in expansion. Maybe.

To OhioKC_Fan

1. The Big Ten will not add one team, believe me on that. The commissioner did'nt announce publicly that they will explore the expansion for 12-18 months for just one team. If so, that would be a waste of time and effort for so much time to pass to consider an expansion of one team. Plus, Missouri has been a major name in the conversation as soon as the Big East prospects started to loss steam with joining the Big Ten (Pitt, Sycacuse, Rutgers). They may have the New York tv market, but their sports outside of football will not generate the kind of revenue for the Big Ten Network. The BTN is the key to the expansion to the Big Ten because they don't just show Football coverage. That is way Missouri and Nebraska are appealling to the BTN because of the traditions, the tv market (Kansas City, St. Louis, Lincoln) do have the cable operators that can make those additional charges to their subscribers with out much objections. As soon as Nebraska say they are coming to the Big Ten, Missouri will follow suit immediately.

2. If you see my alignment, Michigan would be in the West division, not East because Michigan State (Lansing, MI) is further East than Michigan, in terms of their location within their state. And even if they put Michigan, Penn State, and OSU in the same divison, it would not be an issue because they been in the same conference for the last 20 years and nothing has change that would hinder them from going to the major BCS bowls during that time. Nebraska and Wisconsin would be on the same level of Michigan in terms of attendance, alumni support and excitment if Michigan was in the same division with them. It would be balance also because of the other sports as well for Michigan to be in the same West division, because Michigan is not strong in basketball, and Illinois and Wisconsin will give them trouble in the coming years, so that definitely will balance itself out.

3. Notre Dame will join the Big Ten because of three reasons:

1. NBC contract
2. Future of the Big East
3. Conference power

Notre Dame can not continue to rely on the NBC tv contract as long as they are outside the Top 10 consistantly in Bowl/Poll ratings. As much as their tradition may seem to trump all likelihood in keeping to be independent, their tv veiwership is not as strong as they were when they started their NBC affiliation and the writing is on the wall when the discussion of Pac-10, Big Ten, other conferences are looking towards expansion with the help of analysizing the potential of tv contracts that may give larger revenues to them and Notre Dame is still getting peanuts from a network that has more love for Olympics and golf tournments.

The Big East is living off of borrowed time right now, so the uncertainty that comes with the conference is always in place with lining up BCS conferences for the next football series contract. That is why the Mountain West is setting back and wanting for the Big XII to blow up because the next BCS series contract is coming up and the Mountain West is lining themselves up with adding either Boise State or other Big XII leftovers to give thema chance to be part of the next BCS alignment. The Big East only legitimate "cash cow" is West Virginia for football (Cincinnati will not be a factor after this year, and Rutgers has hit a wall) The rest of the Big East is only basketball schools that only rely on Basketball revenue, not football, and football is where the money is! Sycacus, Connecticut, Rutgers, and West Virginia does not have the balance of revenue between football and basketball to even come close to the SEC, ACC, Pac-10, nor the Big Ten. That is where Notre Dame's hand will be force to consider the Big Ten. When your academics hinders you from getting the athletes that are going to state schools, and/or Mid-majors that are get talented athletes that Notre Dame used to get, you can't rely on your conference to give you that stage to shine. Playing Nebraska at Nebraska in front of 80,000 fans is a bigger draw than playing Connecticut in front of 35,000 is a huge difference.

3. Prime Exampe: Penn State! Enough Side. The BCS end this "Notre Dame" exemption when it comes to at-large bids for a BCS bowl and Notre Dame knows that they can not and will not have the talent to compete against powerhouse programs that are in BCS bowl eligible conferences that desire a shot at those bowls because of the Notre Dame exemption rule. Penn State, once they became a member of the Big Ten from being independent will tell you that it was the smarters move they have ever made. It is a matter of time that Notre Dame will come off their High Dome and realize that they don't control their destiny, especially when the alumni's are not going to the high level bowls and they are not getting the results they keep paying for over the years. The conference controls the BCS and Notre Dame will be part of the Big Ten when it is all said and done!



Since: Sep 7, 2008
Posted on: June 9, 2010 2:30 pm
 

Big Ten fans are troopers

40 Million per team? Who knew there were so many people willing to spend time and money watching boring football games. God bless those Big Ten fans, they're so loyal they don't mind watching the football equivilant of ambien.



Since: Sep 20, 2006
Posted on: June 9, 2010 2:01 pm
 

Finally, some closure in expansion. Maybe.

I just wanted to say this again, i believe the big ten will only add nebraska.  I believe that the big ten tried to get texas or notre dame.  When that fell throught the wayside i believe they started talking about the "Super" conference of 14 or 16 teams to see if Notre dame or texas would join that way.  Well, notre dame has stayed put just like 15 years ago and are saying no and putting their foot down (expalnation why in my post above).  Texas rather than trying to join us, simply alligned themselves against the big ten with the pac 10 in case the big ten went for 16 teams.  Without either of those two teams their is no reason to add three or five run of the mill teams and let the pac 10 add texas AND oklahoma and become the supreme conference.  No texas.  No Notre Dame. What is the next best thing? Nebraska!!! they make sense by themselves.  we have 12 teams & a championship game, NU has all the qualities of the rest of the big ten.  However going out and adding mizzou,cuse,rutgers,uconn,etc DOESNT MAKE SENSE!! they are not going to hepl the conference.  Sorry mizzou the big ten flirted with you to get nebrask'a attention st louis market or not.  the big 12 WILL NOT dissolve if they only lose one team, power hungry texas would rather add another texas school and keep running their conference rather than butt heads with usc.  Thats just how i feel.  Please try to make me understand your way if you feel different.  Do you really thin the big ten would add mizzou and rutgers  and let the pac 10 add the real prizes just for the st louis/partial NYC television markets???




Since: Feb 10, 2010
Posted on: June 9, 2010 1:41 pm
 

Finally, some closure in expansion. Maybe.

I doubt that Notre Dame would go to a shaky conference as the Big XII because of only one powerhouse program controlling the revenue strings and not making the amount they are now making by being independent. Plus, the the Big Ten and Pac-10, along with the SEC, would control the majority of the BCS bowls because of their strength of scheduling throughout their soon-to-be mega conferences.

And Texas will not be part of the SEC! Texas will not survive being in a conference that they can not control and Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia will make sure Texas will be set in their place when it comes to revenue sharing and tv contracts. Texas and USC/UCLA can co-exist because the Dallas/Los Angeles markets will work together to benefit the West coast alliance of sponsors and alumni, along with the Washington/Oregon schools will come to accept the change and will benefit from it.

Side note, keep an eye on the shoe companies (Nike, Adidas) that may be behind the scenes on these conference expansions. Keep in mind, the bulk of Big Ten schools have shoe contracts with Adidas (Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, etc) and the shoe/team contract for Notre Dame and Nebreska is..... ADIDAS! The team shoe contract for USC, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, etc are under NIKE (based in Oregon) and who is the team apparrel for Texas=NIKE! Enough Said.  I have a friend that is a regional Director here in Indiana for Finish line and he said that whenever you see a specific shoe contract the majority of university in a conference, that means that the $ for that company are significantly higher than the other schools that use other shoe/team sponsorships.




Since: Sep 20, 2006
Posted on: June 9, 2010 1:38 pm
 

Finally, some closure in expansion. Maybe.

At OhioKC_Fan

I think your idea is very logicial, however i disagree over a few things

1. they will only add one team...not three not five...the reason is notre dame will not be one of those teams and neither will texas so it is not worth it to add five teams.  Nebraska is solid in every way for the big ten, we dont need mizzou, rutgers or cuse etc.

2.  when they get a team they will NOT put penn state ohio state and michigan on one side.  That is the premier three teams as far as size and ca$h, so they will be split up somehow...i think def mich has to play osu every year, but east/west and north/south it really doesnt add up, but ya mich and osu should def be in one while psu will probably be on the other if that is how you think.

3. (and this is the big one) NOTRE DAME WILL NOT EVER JOIN THE BIG TEN....as a penn state fan, and you an ohio state fan, we think they would fit perfectly in the big ten because it makes sense with the conference...long great history, huge fan base, mid western location, makes a ton of money, good school etc. etc......the problem is Notre Dame Does not see it that way.  They will one day join the big east because they fancy themselves the eastern half of the nations USC...think about it...they consider their main rival usc. They will join the big east after the pac ten adds two teams. That will be because they will bever be able to play for a title when every division has a championship game, the bcs simply will never mathematically give enough points to them when the other teams have an extra game.  They will be the USC of the big east, a step above (im not talking talent right now they are a midlle of the pack team just in money and prestige) the rest of the big east in football plus the big east will probably  be so desperate at that time to have 12 good teams that they will prob let them have a contract with nbc or whoever so all their games are still on tv and they can get crushed by usc every rivalry game and think they are still one of the most elite of the elite...my point is they are trying to be like usc (run a conference) rather than join a conference where they would not be the biggest fish but would make the most sense.  Plus ND is in the big east for every other sport anyway! 



Since: Mar 7, 2007
Posted on: June 9, 2010 1:00 pm
 

Finally, some closure in expansion. Maybe.

Notre Dame starts to get nervous that the Big 10 is going to 16 teams and the era of the super-conference is upon them.  They don’t want to risk being left out so they agree to move into the Big 10 but only if they won’t add anybody else.  The Big 10 agrees and everyone stands down. Or Dan Beebe get creative and gives a nervous Notre Dame an invitation to the Big XII to replace the Huskers.



Since: Mar 14, 2008
Posted on: June 9, 2010 12:55 pm
 

Finally, some closure in expansion. Maybe.

Wrong.. let's see now the national media is a big 0 fer on predicting the outcome of these interconferce squabbles...



Since: Sep 22, 2007
Posted on: June 9, 2010 12:52 pm
 

Finally, some closure in expansion. Maybe.

Big ten will end up with both ND and Nebraska. The big 12 doesn't make enough money. It's done. They can't get near the 20 million. They snipe at each other and under cut each other. Look at Baylor and Colorado. Texas could have gone to the big ten if it only brought A&M but because you have to take Baylor and Tech they won't do it. Pac 10 will they see themselves falling behind and hope a projected network can balance it out. it might work, might not. It's either that or go to the SEC and they don't wanna do that.



Since: Dec 1, 2006
Posted on: June 9, 2010 12:13 pm
 

Basketball too!!!

And for us Big 10 basketball fans, adding a patsie basketball team is much needed for our bubble teams.  Hell yeah!  Now let's get Notre Dame.


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