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Blog Entry

Why TCU's chances for a BCS bowl just improved

Posted on: November 21, 2010 8:28 pm
Edited on: November 21, 2010 11:14 pm
 

TCU's chances of making a BCS bowl just improved with Sunday's release of the latest BCS standings.

The Horned Frogs are teetering on the brink of being excluded from a BCS bowl and coach Gary Patterson knows it. That's the reason he went through the ESPN "car wash" over the weekend, flying to Bristol, Conn. for appearances on various ESPN platforms. Patterson was low key and stated his case to the point that he even made it to Chicago Saturday to be on the set of GameDay.

What even Patterson probably doesn't know is, as of Sunday night, that a spot looks like it is opening up for his team in the Orange Bowl. TCU's case was helped by the Nebraska's loss to Texas A&M. The Huskers could have been a potential at-large team. That possibility probably no longer exists with Nebraska having dropped to 9-2.

TCU's plight is affected by a BCS rule that allows a berth to only one automatically qualifying non-BCS school. After that, it's up to the bowls' discretion. That was the scenario last season when Boise and TCU played in the Fiesta Bowl. This year it's likely they both get in again if you assume that the top eight in the BCS win out. Here's why:

1. An Oregon-Auburn championship game creates an opening in the Rose Bowl that this year, per BCS rules, allows for the highest-ranked qualifying non-A.Q. (automatic BCS qualifier) to go to Pasadena. Given the numbers posted Sunday that is most likely Boise State. The Broncos -- fourth in the BCS -- moved within .0135 of No. 3 TCU. With two games remaining, Boise State seems destined to move into that No. 3 position.

2. Assuming Boise is in the Rose Bowl against Wisconsin (winner in a three-team Big Ten tie), then it's easy to slot these teams:

Oklahoma/Oklahoma State/Nebraska or Missouri vs. the Big East champ in the Fiesta.

LSU (SEC at-large) vs. Ohio State (Big Ten at-large) in the Sugar.

3. This is where it gets interesting in the Orange Bowl. There simply isn't that large of an eligible pool to match against the ACC champion (Virginia Tech, Florida State or NC State). At that point only Oklahoma State (11-2 coming off a Big 12 title game loss), Missouri (10-2 if it beats Kansas), Stanford (11-1 if it wins out) and TCU  (12-0 if it beats New Mexico) would likely be eligible for a BCS berth. Every other team would have at least three losses or, like Michigan State, be shut out because its conference already had the limit of two BCS teams.

Remember that the Orange is very sensitive to attendance. It needs two teams who can guarantee a sellout (or come close to guaranteeing) a sellout. That seemingly eliminates Stanford and Missouri. Stanford would be traveling across the country. Only one Pac-10 team (USC in 2003) has played in the Orange Bowl in a non-championship BCS year since 1985. Missouri has a notoriously mediocre fan following in bowls.

That leaves only TCU, not exactly an attendance draw but a better team than any of the other candidates. Virginia Tech-TCU doesn't quite stir the blood the same way that, say, LSU-TCU does but in my scenario the Sugar is not going to pass up a chance for a rematch of the 2008 BCS title game (LSU-Ohio State).

In my scenario, everyone is happy -- TCU, the BCS -- which doesn't have to take a load of ---- for leaving out the Horned Frogs -- and my man Patterson. Once again, the biggest development of Saturday was Nebraska being eliminated. If the Huskers had won that created the unsavory scenario involving the Orange Bowl. The bowl possibly would have had to choose between a two-loss Nebraska and an undefeated TCU. Isn't it great how things work out?

Once again, recapping why TCU fans should be happy if the top four win out:

BCS championship game: Oregon-Auburn

Rose: Boise State-Wisconsin (assuming Badgers win three-way tiebreaker)

Fiesta: Big 12 (Oklahoma/Oklahoma State/Nebraska/Missouri) vs. Big East (too many possibilities even to post on the Internet)

Sugar: LSU-Ohio State

Orange: ACC (Virginia Tech/Florida State/NC State)-TCU

Top eight in the BCS as of Sunday:

1. Oregon, 10-0
2. Auburn, 11-0
3. TCU, 11-0
4. Boise State, 10-0
5. LSU, 10-1
6. Stanford, 10-1
7. Wisconsin, 10-1
8. Ohio State, 10-1

Comments

Since: Oct 15, 2006
Posted on: November 22, 2010 5:49 pm
 

Why TCU's chances for a BCS bowl just improved

Gartdog,

It's not just the money, it's the power. They want the money AND the power to distribute it the way they see fit. Which is to give it to themselves and keep the non-AQs out.

They conceeded one of their precious money grabbing bowl game spots to the non-AQs because the government got involved, now the non-AQs want a shot to get into the "championship game" their biggest payout game AND win their crystal trophy? This just won't do in their minds.

The Department of Justice is the only hope for a non-AQ to ever get a chance to play for their "championship." Even when Auburn loses to Alabama they will find someway to either keep Auburn in the 2 hole when they beat South Carolina or vote Wisconsin/LSU up should Auburn lose to SC. The only solice non-AQs will be able to take is winning the Rose Bowl and hopefully the Orange Bowl.



Since: Nov 22, 2010
Posted on: November 22, 2010 5:32 pm
 

Why TCU's chances for a BCS bowl just improved

Sorry, my last post should have read 24-1, not 40-1. I can't type, but I can tell the BCS the truth. Sorry about the typo!




Since: Sep 4, 2009
Posted on: November 22, 2010 5:17 pm
 

Why TCU's chances for a BCS bowl just improved

As a BSU fan, I hope neither team gets left out in the cold. Granted, TCU going to the Big East is not much different than BSU going to the Mountain West. Two great teams swimming in two VERY little ponds. At some point all the "big wigs and money-mongers will realize that a playoff system is the ONLY way to have this thing work out. What I don't understand, and I'm sure you that read this will help clarify, is why don't they realize that a playoff system will only generate more money. Isn't that all they are really looking for anyways?



Since: Nov 22, 2010
Posted on: November 22, 2010 5:14 pm
 

Why TCU's chances for a BCS bowl just improved

TCU is the best team in the country. Forget for a moment (I wish forever, but I will take a moment) the BCS - by every statistic anyone counts, TCU dominates everyone. And I hate to correct people, but TCU has faced not 2, but 5 opponents who were ranked at some point this season.
TCU doesn't have a strong schedule? Bull. They play every bit as tough a schedule as any of what has become the powderpuff "power conferences". The SEC? Give me a break - Auburn, after they played those challenging schools Arkansas State and UT Chatanooga (just to name two of the doormats they walked on this year) have no room to say anything about the difficulty of anyone's schedule. Oregon, ok they might have a slightly stonger case - they did beat Stanford - but who else did they play? No one of note. After Auburn the next best SEC team has lost - twice. The Big Whoevers - 10, 12 14.5 - they are all so many weak, overrated conferences that rely on what someone did in past years with past teams, on tradition, and quite frankly on arrogant bias.
There is a new reality, and that reality is that the future is not in the SEC, or the Bigs, or the Pacs. The true power conference this year has been the Mountain West Conference, having more ranked teams at one time than any other. TCU and Boise State in particular would simply destroy anyone in the SEC or PAC 10 at the moment. Live with it; that is the way it really is today.
But since the BCS will not make millions of dollars on the amateur atheletes that it exploits if a non-AQ team makes the National Championship Game (which is neither), they will find a way to rig it so it assures the usual SEC vs. Big 10 or Pac-10 snooze fest. Why not let them decide ON the field? TCU and Boise State would win every time. But none of the "power" programs have the guts, or any of the other necessary body parts, to even schedule them, let alone play them at all.
National Championship? Riiggghhhttt. And I am the Pope telling everyone that extramarital sex is now just fine.
Only when every team truly has an equal shot, and the two teams that between them are 40-1 over the last two years get to play for it all will it be able to be called a Natioanl Championship without lots of laughter, disgust and nausea, probably in equal parts. The future is here, and it is spelled TCU and BOISE STATE, not BCS. It is time to dump this mind bending, integrity wasting, money grubbing, solipsitic, arrogant, bloated, stank system and let the best 16 teams play it off ON THE FIELD. It works in every other sport and in every other division of College Football. The reason it won't work in Division I-A (I refuse to use that new, BCS created designation that says only those we smile on are worthy) is simple. The BCS and the fat, old, greedy slimeballs that run the cabal that now controls collegiate "amateur" athletics won't get filthy, stinky, mind-numbingly rich yet again. And that is what this level of college football has descended to - greed over integrity, competition, fair play and excellence. The best two teams could suck rocks as long as they brought in a 49 share in the Neilsens.
The BCS is not about Bowls, or Championships, or even a fair Series. It is about Bloated Creeps Scandalizing everything that our nation and one of its most beloved institutions used to stand for. And that is even worse than what the BCS does to TCU and Boise State year in and year out.



Since: Nov 22, 2010
Posted on: November 22, 2010 4:47 pm
 

Why TCU's chances for a BCS bowl just improved

Idaho Joe:
Have your kicker loosen up your punter for the Nevada game. He'll need it.
TCU's chances for a BCS bowl just improved because you are going down to Nevada; the first legitimate team you've faced this year     &
nbsp; behind Oregon State; don't even try aruguing Virigina Tech... can you say James Madison?
You heard it here first: Nevada 31, Boise State 21.




Since: Apr 5, 2008
Posted on: November 22, 2010 3:02 pm
 

Why TCU's chances for a BCS bowl just improved

This is generally true, but I don't think the OB would take a 3-loss NU or OU team (which is what we're talking about, since they each have 2 losses plus a loss in the Big 12 CG) over an undefeated TCU.

BUT...

If Oklahoma State is 11-2, that might be a different story.  I don't think they ever got to play in the Orange Bowl as a Big 8 member--the closest they came was the 3-way tie of 1976 that sent them to the Tangerine Bowl.

Those guys would travel plenty well and would provide the kind of buzz that the bowl would want to see.




Since: Dec 23, 2009
Posted on: November 22, 2010 2:40 pm
 

Why TCU's chances for a BCS bowl just improved

Per capita, TCU travels with the best of 'em. A small liberal arts college (currently with an enrollment a little over 8k and historically smaller than that) with an alumni base a small fraction of the major state universities, TCU is producing an admirable amount of fan support for its size.




Since: Nov 8, 2010
Posted on: November 22, 2010 2:08 pm
 

Why TCU's chances for a BCS bowl just improved

Tannim, you're mistaken about the Big 12. Nebraska's loss Saturday dropped it into a two-loss tie with Missouri, although the Huskers hold the tie-breaker. If Colorado were to beat Nebraska Friday and Missouri were to win Saturday, Missouri would go to the Big XII title game.



Since: Aug 30, 2006
Posted on: November 22, 2010 1:55 pm
 

Why TCU's chances for a BCS bowl just improved

Why is Missouri even in the mix?  Nebraska has clinched the Big 12 North by virute of its head-to-head win against them, no matter what happens Friday and Saturday.

Ditto Ohio St., who's out in a 3-way tie because Michogan St. lost to common opponent Iowa, which both Ohio St. and Wisconsin beat, and then Ohio St. is out because Wisconsin beat them head-to-head.  Read the Big 10 tiebreaker rules, please!

In simple terms:

If Wisconsin, Ohio St., and Michigan St. all win out, Wisconsin goes to Pasadena.  See abvoe.
If Wisconsin and Ohio St. finish in a tie, Wisconsin goes to Pasadena on virtue of head-to-head.
If Wisconsin and Michigan St. finish in a tie, Michigan St. goes to Pasadena on virtue of head-to-head.
If Ohio St. and Michigan St. finish in a tie, head-to-head doesn't matter, common opponents are a wash (splits with Wisconsin and Iowa, rest sweps), leaving it down to percentage of overall wins in conference, which goes to Ohio St. because one of Michigan St.'s opponents was FCS and Ohio St. wasn't.



Since: Dec 2, 2007
Posted on: November 22, 2010 12:56 pm
 

Why TCU's chances for a BCS bowl just improved

As mentioned, TCU travels VERY well and sold out all of their Fiesta Bowl tix last year.  Keep in mind that it's much easier to see fans dressed in BRIGHT ORANGE than it is to see dark purple fans.  Oregon State was the same way in Cowboys Stadium, but that place was real loud when cheering for the Frogs.  Also note, that TCU sold out ALL of their away game allotments this year.


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