Blog Entry

BCS championship game prediction blog

Posted on: January 9, 2011 7:31 pm
 

It's the little things in the BCS championship game. It's the little things because we know about the big things.

Figure Cam Newton for 200+ passing and 100+ rushing. Figure LaMichael James for 100+ rushing and a couple of touchdowns. Pencil Nick Fairley in for at least three tackles for loss and a personal four or two. None of that would surprise any of us.

It's the little things.

"I think it is real simple," Auburn's Gene Chizik said. "It is probably 200 years old ... We know that we have an explosive offense. We know that we have the capability of scoring a lot of points. What we'd like to do offensively is keep the football and eat some clock, get some first downs."

About that, Auburn is 86th in time of possession (29:01 per game) but is 11th in first downs (24.31). I'm a big stat guy so I think that's important. It's another indicator that Auburn is more like Oregon offensively than anyone knows. The difference in these two teams offensively is that I think Auburn wants to drive the ball, while Oregon wants to score quickly. Hence, the 79 plays per game. Possessions will have to be valued greatly. I compare it to a tennis match. If you don't score in this game, you lose serve.

I go back to the Oregon's USC game on Halloween. USC had a bye week to prepare for the Ducks' high-flying offense. Lane Kiffin spent a lot of time conditioning the Trojans. They were up to it to the point that USC scored two quick touchdowns in the third quarter to go ahead 32-29. Oregon then scored 24 unanswered to win 53-32. Do I think that will happen against Auburn? No. My point is that no matter what happens, Oregon's defense is going to be left on the field for an inordinate amount of time.

The Ducks average 1.76 points per minute of possession but their defense spends more than 32 minutes per game on the field.

For Oregon, gang tackling is going to be key against Cam Newton. The Ducks have six players with at least 25 tackles. Linebacker Casey Matthews is the energy guy (73 tackles, 8.5 TFLs, 3 sacks). Corner Cliff Harris (five picks) is the big-play guy. He averages 19.5 yards per punt return and has taken four to the house.

As for Oregon's offense, I suspect Chip Kelly will come out early running the zone read side-to-side with James. That will serve to tire out Auburn's defensive line, which obviously is its strength. When I talked to James following the Oregon State he told me that he -- and the coaches -- favor him getting up field more and using his body. Even though James is only 185, maybe 190, he is one of the hardest hitters in the game when he sticks his nose up in there.

Even though he's got a space-age offense, Kelly will try to manage this game like an NFL coach. Take chances, open it up and try to get out to a lead in the first half. If that happens, look for James running up in the creases to tire out Auburn. There is a line of thinking that Kelly has "hidden" much of the offense down the stretch. Quarterback Darron Thomas hasn't done much running. Look for that to be a factor too with Thomas rolling out with a run-pass option.

"Defensively, we think it is very simple. Again, that's 200 years old," Chizik said. "We've got to definitely stop the run first. We cannot give up the big plays in the secondary."

That's Auburn's biggest weakness. Only 14 teams are worse than Auburn against the pass.

The second half, particularly the fourth-quarter will be key. That sounds simple, but is really the identity of these teams. Oregon has outscored opponents 277-77 in the second half. Auburn has outscored foes 125-48 in the fourth quarter. That begins to explain why each of these teams has eight come-from-behind wins.

The final factor: Which team has the biggest chip on its shoulder? Make that Chip. Oregon has been acting like the team that is here on business. It got to the Valley early. There was scant media availability. We didn't even know Kelly was in town until Friday when he appeared at the mandated media day. The Ducks are still thinking about their performance in last year's Rose Bowl. They weren't physical enough against a quarterback of a similar build as Newton, Ohio State's Terrelle Pryor.

Prediction: I thought former Oregon coach Mike Bellotti broke it down perfectly Sunday when he said Auburn runs a Wildcat offense on every play with Newton. Defensive coordinators call a running quarterback a "plus one" because he has to be accounted for on every play -- an extra running back if you will. New Texas coordinator Manny Diaz -- who coached against Newton in his second Auburn game with Mississippi State -- called the quarterback a "plus one and a half."

We've talked about the little things here. Like Chizik said, it's simple. Go with Newton. No one has stopped him yet. I don't think Oregon is going to be the first. Auburn 41, Oregon 31.

Category: NCAAF
Comments

Since: Jan 20, 2008
Posted on: January 10, 2011 5:48 pm
 

BCS championship game prediction blog

Fallonia: I am going to be patient with you, because you appear educable, and would may profit from instruction. Rather than Fisk your entire post and further bore everyone here, I will hit on the broader points:
The Pac-10's athletic and academic superiority speaks for itself. SEC teams build up impressive-looking records because they're able to beat up on mediocre SEC competition all year. When you play a ton of games against laughable "powerhouses" like Vanderbilt, Georgia (which is still looking for Herschel Walker's replacement, for crying out loud) and Mississippi (which can't even spell "Old" correctly in its nickname -- "Ole Miss" indeed), it's easy to run up the wins. A case in point: Kentucky. While UK's basketball team may have some minor accomplishments to its credit, its football team was terrible for years until it brought in Mitch Barnhart (a mediocre Pac-10 AD) and Rich Brooks (a good, not great, Pac-10 coach). Suddenly it was an SEC powerhouse. Another example is Tennessee, which had a sudden turnaround when Lane Kiffin (a mediocre Pac-10 and terrible NFL head coach) ran its program for one season. Examples, such as these, of Pac-10 coaches dominating inferior SEC coaching minds demonstrate our conference's superiority.
Please provide an example of any "400 year old wars" I brought up. My examples were 100 years ago, 225 years ago, and a mythical battle from thousands of years ago. None of them was 400 years ago, or anywhere near that timespan.
Your comments that I have "never been inside a Eugene classroom" are too ridiculous to rebut. I spent most of my life there (including two college degrees, thankyouverymuch), until the crappy job market drove me to the Land of the Sun.
Hope your sister enjoyed her U of O experience. Surprised that a family connection doesn't make you root for Oregon tonight. I thought "blood is thicker than water." I also hope she didn't get converted by any of those awful hippies that hang out near the U of O campus. Ugh. Someone needs to tell them that 1968 has ended already. Ever see the "Hippie Drill" episode of South Park? That's what they're really like.
Anyway, I agree that it should be a good game, and I, too, hope nobody gets hurt tonight. But know this: Oregon will not lose. It is impossible. It simply cannot and will not happen. So, see you after the game, and maybe you can help us pick out U of O "National Champion" T-Shirts!




Since: Sep 5, 2009
Posted on: January 10, 2011 5:33 pm
 

BCS championship game prediction blog

Gonna be a great game!  Defense?  What defense?  Oregon pulls out a great win 51-43.  I'll take the over all day.  Good luck to the fans from both teams and maybe my Seminoles will be there in the next couple of years.



Since: Apr 25, 2008
Posted on: January 10, 2011 5:17 pm
 

BCS championship game prediction blog

This is good stuff. I forgot how crazy the 5 week wait makes people. Trust me I have been there. Now, if only the Sooners can someday win another one of these things. Then I could get on here and talk some actual noise. Good luck to both teams tonight. I can't wait.



Since: Nov 13, 2010
Posted on: January 10, 2011 5:13 pm
 

BCS championship game prediction blog

      
;     &nbs
p;     &nb
sp;  GO AUTIGERS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!      
;"WIN  IT  
;ALL"    &
nbsp;WAR EAGLE!!!!!!!!!      
;     &nbs
p;     &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;     
      
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p;     &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;     
      
;     &nbs
p;     &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;     
      
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p;     &nb
sp;     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;     
      
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sp;     &n
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nbsp;     
      
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sp;     &n
bsp;     &
nbsp;  .MKLK/L




Since: Mar 6, 2010
Posted on: January 10, 2011 4:59 pm
 

BCS championship game prediction blog

This should be a great game especially when Cam Newtons Dad gets his last payoff check at halftime

Oregon 52
Auburn  50



Since: Jan 10, 2011
Posted on: January 10, 2011 4:53 pm
 

BCS championship game prediction blog

Oregon 52, Auburn 35. 

SEC fans brag about their tough schedules and all their nationally ranked openents, but they're against other SEC opponents that were nationally ranked by the SEC loving media, hence the self-fulfilling prophecy.  Although I admit the SEC is one of the better conferences top to bottom this year, many years if an SEC team dares play a tough out of conference opponent - they lose!  Almost every year they play their bowl matchups in SEC country (Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and Louisiana) with obvious advantages. 

Oregon and Stanford are the two best teams in college football this year (by far), and the championship game is being played in PAC 10 country.  I am not sure which conference is responsible for the officials tonight - just hope I don't hear that dreaded southern drawl at the coin toss like I did in the Rose Bowl.  Auburn will be lucky if they force Oregon to punt even one time tonight.




Since: Oct 12, 2010
Posted on: January 10, 2011 4:35 pm
 

BCS championship game prediction blog

Oregon is in the Pac-10, not the Big 10 or Big East.  You know, its in the conference the SEC doesnt want to play. 



Since: Feb 17, 2008
Posted on: January 10, 2011 4:33 pm
 

BCS championship game prediction blog

Regardless of the outcome tonight.  The winner of this game will be the holder of the "Mythical National Championship".  TCU might be better than both of these teams.  Not one person on here can guarantee that TCU isn't better.  Many will say so but its still an opinion.  In BB there is no doubt.  Imagine March Madness winner being voted in by just winning one game.  The interest wouldn't be there.  So maybe they should vote in the NFL champion like this.  Everyone including Auburn and Oregon fans would laugh at that as a joke but this is for real.  Yeah and the real Santa came to visit a couple weeks ago too.  I'm not saying Auburn and/or Oregaon aren't the best team but nobody really knows.  But if there is anyone who defends this farce can honestly show where they have NEVER been wrong predicting the outcome of a sporting event then I'll admit this was the right way.  Till then this is about as scientific as mens figure skating....it's an opinion champ.  Probably top 3 or 4 but not guaranteed to be the best.



Since: Jan 10, 2011
Posted on: January 10, 2011 4:23 pm
 

BCS championship game prediction blog

raiderduck..  ill be here win lose or draw.  question is, will you?  im sure youll find some kind of excuse.  its funny how im the uneducated one, lmao.  i wont even both listing my degrees and accomplishments, that would only be rude and pompous.  if you even know what pompous means.  the funniest part about this entire conversation is that you actually whole heartedly believe that Oregon's D is going to hold Auburn to under 20 points?  Really?  LMAO!!!  Keep dreamin homie!  Auburn's scoring isn't the question and neither is Oregon's scoring.  I also see where you're coming from, it's easy to hate the dominant conf. who sends twice as many defensive players to the NFL than any other.  It's easy to hate a 4 year NC streak.  It's easy to hate Cam when he's not on your squad.  Yes I understand your thinking that Oregon will score 50 on Auburn, seeing as how they put up soooooo many points against Cal. Lmao!  Atleast my biased opinions involve some education. 

Oh and it's so obvious how awsome the PAC10 is, with their 2 top 25 teams.  BTW good job beating Stanford, your only competition in the top 25.  Oh and good job beating the mighty USC, LMAO!  Since they scored 32 on yall, do you think they will try to lay claim to half of Auburns championship?  It must be hard being a PAC10 douche.  So lets look at the numbers. 

Out of the last 12 years the SEC has won 6 national titles.  The PAC has one.  FYI the 2003 champions were LSU even though USC would love to claim that one, they can't.  LOL.  In those 12 years the SEC has lost ZERO BCS title games, the PAC has lost one.  So we are 100% and yall are 50%.  Out of the current top 25 teams Oregon has beaten only 1.  Auburn has beaten 5.  9 of Auburns opponents were in the top 25 the day Auburn beat them.  Oregon only played against 4 teams while they were ranked. 

So now instead of making a valid point, could you please spout off some more irrelevant BS about how awsome the PAC10 would be if they were the only conf in football?  Or possibly you could take more shots at my grammar.  My Spelling?  Every state in the south except the one I actually live in?  Or maybe you could bring up some more 400 year old wars and sound anything but witty.

With that being said, Good luck to Oregon and Auburn.  I hope its a great game and none of either teams players get injured.  I'm also glad to have a sister that ran track at Oregon.  That way I know plenty of people that are nothing like your pathetic carcass.  Too bad it is idiots like you that have never been inside a Eugene classroom that give most people their image of Oregon U.  So please please edit my entire post for me.  It's much cheaper than than the 3 people I pay to do this type of work.  Oh and for your foolish tool of a buddy, Auburn is not the War Eagles anymore than Bama is the Roll Tides or Arky is the Wooo Pig Sooie's.  Until you pompous douchebags get an education yourselves, you should refrain from making ignorant comments about everyones grammar and such.  It's the internet and nobody who matters cares.  Only morons with no other leverage in a discussion resort to pretending to be an english teacher. 

Goodbye and Suck One!



Since: Dec 14, 2007
Posted on: January 10, 2011 4:23 pm
 

BCS championship game prediction blog

Beat up on those minor league SEC War Tigers.


its "War Eagle" before you make up a name get your facts right.
Go Auburn!!


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