Blog Entry

Source: Big 12 best to stay at 9

Posted on: September 30, 2011 12:40 am
Edited on: September 30, 2011 12:53 am

The Big 12 should not expand in order to maximize its earning power, a source intimately involved in the conference's TV negotiations told on Thursday.

"If it were me I'd try to stay where I am," said the source. "Nine months ago they had the same money for 10 teams. Is anything going to change if they have nine?"

Texas A&M's formal departure to the SEC this week reduced the Big 12 to nine teams. Missouri is still contemplating whether also to pursue membership in the SEC. With nine teams, the source said, not only would the conference get an expected windfall for its primary rights fees following the 2015 season, it would provide nine more non-conference games as inventory.

"That's more attractive to the networks than BYU-Iowa State," said source who did not want to be identified because of his relationship with the league.

BYU is widely speculated to be joining the Big 12 should it expand. A nine-team league would allow the Big 12 to keep playing a round-robin conference schedule (eight games) while scheduling four non-conference games. The league currently plays a nine-game conference schedule with three non-conference games.

Both Fox and ESPN committed to saving the league in 2010 after the Pac-12 almost raided the Big 12 of half of its team. The 10 remaining schools were guaranteed approximately $20 million each when the conference's primary rights deal with ESPN expired after the 2015-16 academic year.

Fox began to fulfill that promise when the league agreed to a $1.13 billion deal for 13 years for its secondary rights earlier this year. The source said neither Fox nor ESPN were going pay less than promised in 2010 for the Big 12 at nine teams, or perhaps even eight teams. It's not clear if Fox or ESPN have a cancellation clause of their contracts if league membership falls below a certain number.

Staying at nine, said the source, would make it easier for conference schools to get to that $20 million per-team plateau. For example, with nine teams the new Fox deal alone is worth $9.6 million per team. In the latest round of conference realignment schools either are a "brand" or have markets. While more teams would bring more inventory (games) to bid on, the question is: Would each new school bring $20 million to the table individually?

The Big 12 has a long way to go before answering that question. It hasn't been determined whether the schools have committed their primary media rights to the conference for six years. That would essentially hold the conference together but no one is quite sure where that issue stands. Oklahoma president David Boren said a week all the remaining schools had agreed. Missouri chancellor Brady Deaton merely said the issue was being discussed.

The Missouri board of curators will reportedly meet on Tuesday. The board could merely empower Deaton to seek another conference although there is no indication which way the school is leaning.

Big 12 expansion speculation is all over the map -- from staying at nine to going to 16 teams.





Category: NCAAF

Since: Nov 7, 2010
Posted on: September 30, 2011 6:42 pm

Source: Big 12 best to stay at 9

The problem with many of the suggestions regarding teams that could potentially join the Big 12 is that they are based on short term evaluations (i.e. looking at the current state of the teams (e.g.TCU and Boise State) instead of what the potential school to add to the conference in the long term. The decision of the SEC to take A&M or the Big 10 to take Nebraska was a no brainer because either school will bring in money to the conference, win or lose (Colorado to the Pac 10 I am not yet convinced about). Nevertheless, the decision should be based on long term contribution to the conference, not whether the team is currently good or bad.

Since: Aug 20, 2006
Posted on: September 30, 2011 6:24 pm

Source: Big 12 best to stay at 9

"The difference in competition is clear, but the amount of money brought in by bowls and the recognition brought it from rankings over 11 years of time is a wash."

No. TCU adds nothing.  They don't fill out their own (not very big at that) stadium.  They don't travel well.  They don't have a lot of people watching their games.  The DFW TV market is IRRELEVANT here because the old Big 12 South teams collectively completely and utterly dominate that market.

Since: Feb 8, 2011
Posted on: September 30, 2011 5:41 pm

Source: Big 12 best to stay at 9

Dallas/Fort Worth which would be TCU or SMU is the fifth largest tv market. Houston is 10th. Both markets are bigger than any currently in the Big 12. UCF is not coming to Big 12 nor is Pitt but just for the record UCF is in the Orlando market which ranks 19th. 

Since: Oct 20, 2008
Posted on: September 30, 2011 3:30 pm

Source: Big 12 best to stay at 9

Big 12 would definitely be better with TCU and West Virginia then they have been with Nebraska and Colordo.  History and tradition are terms that are usually used by old people who think of Tom Osbourn and Bill McCartney.  How many different coaches have each of those programs had since.  Quick, name the current head coach at Colorado.  Yep, I don't know his name either.

Nebraska VS TCU 2000-2010

Nebraska 94-48 .662  9 Bowls  1 BCS game.

TCU 108-29 .788 10 Bowls  2 BCS games. (Probably would have had more if we would have respected the minor conferences more sooner.)

The difference in competition is clear, but the amount of money brought in by bowls and the recognition brought it from rankings over 11 years of time is a wash.

Here is where the Big 12 clearly gets better.

Colorado VS West Virginia

Colorado 63-74 .460  5 Bowls  1 BCS game

West Virginia  104-46  .693  10 Bowls   2 BCS games.

Without drifting into yester year, explain how the Big 12 isn't better with these two teams as opposed to the 2 they lost.

Since: May 7, 2009
Posted on: September 30, 2011 2:58 pm

Source: Big 12 best to stay at 9

Is it just me, or are all the proposals for the Big 12 just a slow, painful death?  No one they are talking about it is a major power in any large market except Texas (Pitt, CFU, BSU, etc.).  And Missouri, which is a decent sized market, may slip away.  This just doesn't sound stable given the size of UT.

Since: Sep 15, 2008
Posted on: September 30, 2011 2:55 pm

Revenues not everything

If the league is not strengthened and fortified with new teams, the math of revenue will not shake out when the conference is dead...

... At least for the teams that may have no other BCS home down the road ie KSU, KU, Baylor, ISU, etc.

Let's not forget the advantages that OU and Texas have for keeping this league alive outside of revenue.  It's not worth mortgaging those for a couple of years of a couple more million dollars.

Since: Sep 30, 2011
Posted on: September 30, 2011 2:43 pm

Source: Big 12 best to stay at 9

@VolsRBack... Tennessee, home of the family tree with no branches. Before you start calling people dumb, please check your basic spelling and grammar skills: *matters... *than... *their.  Yet another foolish neckbearded hillbilly =\

Since: Apr 13, 2008
Posted on: September 30, 2011 2:40 pm

Source: Big 12 best to stay at 9

I would much rather have TCU in the conference than BYU, BYU is still sorta riding the hype of there college all start player jimmer. I dont see them staying relative in college sports though. TCU has consistently produced top teams in football, not a year to year basis but they do surface every once in awhile as a top 10 team. not so sure. I dont really ever see them in basketball but im sure a move to the big 12 would help them land bigger recruits. 

Since: Sep 29, 2011
Posted on: September 30, 2011 2:40 pm

Source: Big 12 best to stay at 9

Not sure if I heard correctly, but someone wants to somehow allow teams from the same conf meet in the NC game?  That just sounds and smells like SEC crying right there.  No way teams from the same conf should meet in the NC game!  Someone wins the conf and someone loses....don't be affraid of the Big 12....just step in and play!

Since: Sep 30, 2011
Posted on: September 30, 2011 2:31 pm
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