Here's proof that it takes pros to win it all

(UPDATED FROM WHEN ORIGINALLY POSTED TO INCLUDE 2009 NCAA TOURNAMENT)

I've forever believed that it takes more than good players, smart coaches and great chemistry to win a national title.

It's takes pros.

At least three of them, in fact.

And though I've said this many times on radio shows and written it in various places, I had never actually researched the theory until I decided last week to look at the likely NBA talent playing on college teams this season. So what I did was examine the rosters of the past 41 national champions and identify players who went on to either A) be selected in the first two rounds of the NBA Draft or B) play in the NBA at some point even though they might've been drafted later or actually gone undrafted. And what I found was that you can count on one hand how many times in the past 41 seasons that a national champion didn't have at least three players who went on to be a first-round pick, second-round pick or an NBA player via the more unconventional route.

Actually, you can count it on one finger.

Because only one national champion fits the description: the 2003 Syracuse Orange featuring Carmelo Anthony, Hakim Warrick and a bunch of non-pros. Beyond that, every single national champion from the past 40 years had at least three players who went on to be a first-round pick, second-round pick or an NBA player in general.

So what does this mean?

Well, for starters it means that -- surprise, surprise -- I was right again, just like always. But what it also means is that a college coach who looks at his roster and doesn't see at least three NBA-caliber prospects has virtually no chance of winning a national championship. Sure, you can still be good, maybe win your league and even go to a Final Four if everything breaks perfectly. But history suggests you're not going to win it all without three NBA-caliber prospects, and this is why coaches spend basically every day of the contact periods on the road killing themselves securing commitments from elite-level prospects.

Without them, there's a ceiling that can't be busted.

With them, anything is possible.

Anyway, below is a list I put together from the past 40 years.

(Note: It appears the most-talented roster was the one Rick Pitino assembled for the 1995-96 season. That Kentucky team had nine players who were subsequent first-round picks, second-picks or NBA players in general.)

2009: North Carolina

Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Tyler Hansbrough, Danny Green, Deon Thompson, Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller

2008: Kansas

Mario Chalmers, Brandon Rush, Sasha Kaun, Darrell Arthur, Darnell Jackson, Cole Aldrich, Sherron Collins

2007: Florida

Al Horford, Joakim Noah, Corey Brewer, Taurean Green, Chris Richard, Marreese Speights

2006: Florida

Al Horford, Joakim Noah, Corey Brewer, Taurean Green, Chris Richard

2005: North Carolina

Marvin Williams, Raymond Felton, Rashad McCants, Sean May, David Noel, Reyshawn Terry

2004: Connecticut

Ben Gordon, Emeka Okafor, Charlie Villanueva, Josh Boone, Marcus Williams, Denham Brown, Hilton Armstrong

2003: Syracuse

Carmelo Anthony, Hakim Warrick

2002: Maryland

Juan Dixon, Lonny Baxter, Chris Wilcox, Steve Blake

2001: Duke

Jay Williams, Shane Battier, Carlos Boozer, Mike Dunleavy, Chris Duhon

2000: Michigan State

Mateen Cleaves, Morris Peterson, Jason Richardson, Charlie Bell

1999: Connecticut

Rip Hamilton, Khalid El-Amin, Jake Voskuhl

1998: Kentucky

Jamal Magloire, Nazr Mohammed, Scott Padgett, Jeff Sheppard

1997: Arizona

Mike Bibby, Miles Simon, Michael Dickerson, Jason Terry, A.J. Bramlett,

1996: Kentucky

Tony Delk, Antoine Walker, Walter McCarty, Derek Anderson, Ron Mercer, Nazr Mohammed, Jeff Sheppard, Mark Pope, Wayne Turner

1995: UCLA

Ed O'Bannon, George Zidek, Tyus Edney, Charles O'Bannon, Toby Bailey

1994: Arkansas

Corliss Williamson, Darnell Robinson, Corey Beck

1993: North Carolina

George Lynch, Eric Montross, Kevin Salvadori

1992: Duke

Christian Laettner, Grant Hill, Bobby Hurley, Thomas Hill, Antonio Lang, Cherokee Parks

1991: Duke

Christian Laettner, Grant Hill, Bobby Hurley, Brian Hill, Antonio Lang

1990: UNLV

Larry Johnson, Stacy Augmon, Greg Anthony, George Ackles

1989: Michigan

Glen Rice, Rumeal Robinson, Loy Vaught, Terry Mills, Sean Higgins

1988: Kansas

Danny Manning, Archie Marshall, Kevin Pritchard

1987: Indiana

Steve Alford, Dean Garrett, Keith Smart

1986: Louisville

Pervis Ellison, Billy Thompson, Milt Wagner, Kenny Payne

1985: Villanova

Ed Pinckney, Harold Pressley, Dwayne McClain

1984: Georgetown

Patrick Ewing, Bill Martin, Reggie Williams, David Wingate, Michael Jackson

1983: North Carolina State

Lorenzo Charles, Thurl Bailey, Sidney Lowe

1982: North Carolina

Michael Jordan, James Worthy, Sam Perkins

1981: Indiana

Isiah Thomas, Ray Tolbert, Randy Wittman, Jim Thomas, Ted Kitchel

1980: Louisville

Darrell Griffith, Derek Smith, Jerry Eaves, Roger Burkman, Rodney McCray, Scooter McCray

1979: Michigan State

Magic Johnson, Greg Kelser, Jay Vincent

1978: Kentucky

Kyle Macy, Rick Robey, Jack Givens, James Lee

1977: Marquette

Bo Ellis, Bernard Toone, Butch Lee, Jerome Whitehead

1976: Indiana

Scott May, Quinn Buckner, Kent Benson, Bobby Wilkerson, Wayne Radford

1975: UCLA

Marquis Johnson, Richard Washington, Andre McCarter, Ralph Drollinger, David Meyers

1974: North Carolina State

Tom Burleson, David Thompson, Monte Towe

1973: UCLA

Bill Walton, David Meyers, Keith Wilkes, Greg Lee, Swen Nater

1972: UCLA

Bill Walton, Keith Wilkes, Greg Lee, Henry Bibby

1971: UCLA

Sidney Wicks, Henry Bibby, Curtis Rowe, Steve Patterson

1970: UCLA

Sidney Wicks, Henry Bibby, John Vallely, Steve Patterson

1969: UCLA

Lew Alcindor, Lucius Allen, John Vallely, Steve Patterson

Here's proof that it takes pros to win it all

HoyaParanoia07 Since: Mar 12, 2007	Posted on: October 17, 2008 4:30 pm Here's proof that it takes pros to win it all Gary, Not that it disproves your theory (hard to argue with 39 out of 40), but do you think there may be a bit of a reverse cause-effect relationship going on here as well? What I mean is, do you think it's possible that the fact that the team won the championship, gained extra exposure, earned the kids the "winner" label, etc. could have contributed to the fact that they were drafted in the NBA? In many cases, the players were clearly NBA caliber with or without the title (i.e. UConn 2004, UCLA 1969, UNLV 1990, etc.), but do you think it's possible that some of these teams only had players drafted because of their championship run? Had Danny Manning not led Kansas to the 1988 title, are Archie Marshall and Kevin Pritchard drafted? If UCLA bows out in the first round of 1995, were the O'Bannon brothers and Toby Bailey NBA bound? (Would anyone have even heard of Tyus Edney without that shot against Mizzou??) Was Mario Chalmers in the draft prior to his buzzer beater against Memphis? (He may have been, that's why I'm not the expert.) Anyway, I agree that your theory is very sound (because teams have future NBA players, they have a better chance to win the NCAA title), but I'd be willing to be that the converse is a factor as well (because a team wins the NCAA title, they have a better chance to have players drafed to the NBA). Thanks. Hoya Saxa. [ Reply to Comment ]
Hoosier Mick Since: Jul 16, 2008	Posted on: October 17, 2008 3:05 pm Here's proof that it takes pros to win it all That all makes sense Gary and there is no arguing with the statistics. But the 1987 Indiana team was more about a team working a system and maximizing the talents of each player rather than raw talent. While Steve, Keith and Dean were all drafted in the second round, only Dean had a decent NBA career and that was after playing about 8 years in Europe. I'm not disagreeing with you. And I think your point is even more important now than it was decades ago due to increased level of play and parody. I just think that '87 IU team did more with less talent than most. [ Reply to Comment ]

Gary,

Not that it disproves your theory (hard to argue with 39 out of 40), but do you think there may be a bit of a reverse cause-effect relationship going on here as well? What I mean is, do you think it's possible that the fact that the team won the championship, gained extra exposure, earned the kids the "winner" label, etc. could have contributed to the fact that they were drafted in the NBA?

In many cases, the players were clearly NBA caliber with or without the title (i.e. UConn 2004, UCLA 1969, UNLV 1990, etc.), but do you think it's possible that some of these teams only had players drafted because of their championship run?

Had Danny Manning not led Kansas to the 1988 title, are Archie Marshall and Kevin Pritchard drafted? If UCLA bows out in the first round of 1995, were the O'Bannon brothers and Toby Bailey NBA bound? (Would anyone have even heard of Tyus Edney without that shot against Mizzou??) Was Mario Chalmers in the draft prior to his buzzer beater against Memphis? (He may have been, that's why I'm not the expert.)

Anyway, I agree that your theory is very sound (because teams have future NBA players, they have a better chance to win the NCAA title), but I'd be willing to be that the converse is a factor as well (because a team wins the NCAA title, they have a better chance to have players drafed to the NBA).

Thanks. Hoya Saxa.

Here's proof that it takes pros to win it all

That all makes sense Gary and there is no arguing with the statistics. But the 1987 Indiana team was more about a team working a system and maximizing the talents of each player rather than raw talent. While Steve, Keith and Dean were all drafted in the second round, only Dean had a decent NBA career and that was after playing about 8 years in Europe.

I'm not disagreeing with you. And I think your point is even more important now than it was decades ago due to increased level of play and parody. I just think that '87 IU team did more with less talent than most.

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