NEW YORK -- Pittsburgh, North Carolina and Louisville are locks for No. 1 seeds, and I think Memphis will get the fourth No. 1 seed even though the Tigers do not have one of the best four bodies of work in the country. Why? Because I believe the committee will discount UConn because of the loss of Jerome Dyson and put an asterisk next to Duke's ACC tournament title based on the fact that Ty Lawson didn't play for UNC.
So Pitt, UNC, Louisville and Memphis will be the top seeds.
Connecticut, Duke, Oklahoma and Michigan State should be the No. 2 seeds.
Here's the full field, best I can tell:
1. Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Louisville, Memphis
2. Connecticut, Duke, Oklahoma, Michigan State
3. Wake Forest, Villanova, Missouri, Kansas
4. Florida State, Gonzaga, Syracuse, Washington
5. UCLA, Xavier, Purdue, Butler
6. West Virginia, Illinois, Arizona State, Utah
7. Clemson, Marquette, Ohio State, LSU
8. Texas, Oklahoma State, BYU, Tennessee
9. California, Boston College, Wisconsin, Michigan
10. Texas A&M, Maryland, Minnesota, Southern California
11. Siena, Creighton, Temple, Dayton
12. Northern Iowa, Mississippi State, Western Kentucky, Utah State
13. Akron, VCU, Stephen F. Austin, Cleveland State
14. American, Robert Morris, North Dakota State, Binghamton
15. Cornell, East Tennessee State, Portland State, Radford
16. Morehead State, Cal State-Northridge, Morgan State
Play-in Game: Chattanooga vs. Alabama State




I've been saying all along that UConn would get a #1 seed. Granted, UConn's #1 seed would have been the second #1 if UConn had won the Big East tournament and UNC had won the ACC tournament, but neither of these outcomes came to pass. And if UConn had won the Big East tournament and UNC had lost the ACC, then UConn would have been the overall #1 seed--but that didn't happen either. I would have considered Memphis if, among their 31 wins, they had beaten a bunch of teams in the Top 25 or Top 50, but that wasn't the case.
So even though UConn had sort of gone mediocre following the loss of Jerome Dyson, the overall record and the fact that UConn had only lost to Big East teams (one loss at home to a then-ranked Georgetown, two losses to another #1 seed, Pittsburgh, and a six-OT loss to Syracuse in the Big East tournament) and had an away-from-home record of 13-2, not to mention a drubbing of the overall #1 seed at Freedom Hall, UConn deserves the #1 seed. I think the committee may also have looked at just what UConn still has in the way of talent. Hasheem Thabeet, despite the latest tactic of opponents' driving into his chest to inhibit his shot blocking, is still a major deterrent on defense, and he's getting better offensively. Jeff Adrien, he of the 44 (or more) career double-doubles, A.J. Price, who is capable of 30+ points on any given occasion, and Stanley Robinson, who is finally beginning to demonstrate the ability that's been simmering since his freshman year are the other significant weapons that UConn brings to the court. Yes, the bench is rather thin at this point, but Craig Austrie and Kemba Walker are solid at the guard positions, and Gavin Edwards has become a reliable sub at the forward positions.
It is unlikely that UConn will fold its tent before the Regional Final, which should be against Memphis on March 26. That's why they are a #1 seed.