Blog Entry

Preseason rankings do mean something

Posted on: March 25, 2008 6:58 pm

CHARLOTTE -- I was flipping through some notes on the flight to Charlotte this afternoon and found something kinda interesting. It's that 23 of the 25 teams in the preseason Associated Press poll ultimately made the NCAA tournament, an impressive number given all the variables that can potentially change things from November to March.

The top four teams in that poll were North Carolina, UCLA, Memphis and Kansas.

Those are also the top four seeds in this NCAA tournament.

The only schools in the preseason Top 25 that didn't make the field were No. 21 North Carolina State and No. 24 Southern Illinois. Again, that's an amazing example of accuracy considering how last season there were five teams ranked in the AP preseason Top 25 that did not make the NCAA tournament -- namely No. 5 LSU, No. 11 Alabama, No. 17 Washington, No. 18 Connecticut and No. 20 Syracuse.

If you're wondering, 10 of the 16 teams in this Sweet 16 were ranked in the preseason.

The omissions were Villanova, Wisconsin, Xavier, Davidson, Western Kentucky and West Virginia.

The only preseason Top 10 schools that did not make the Sweet 16 were No. 5 Georgetown and No. 9 Indiana.
Category: NCAAB

Since: Dec 22, 2006
Posted on: March 28, 2008 5:55 pm

Preseason rankings do mean something

Great post Gary!  While I feel pre-season rankings aren' t that important you backed it up well. 

Since: Feb 15, 2008
Posted on: March 26, 2008 3:06 am

Preseason rankings do mean something

...and while we're at it, expand the tournament to 257 teams, (can't get rid of the play-in game...) and see how long it takes for a 64-seed to knock off a 1-seed.

My only knock on the preseason top-25 is that it tends to only include major conference teams, with any mid-majors you might find at the bottom. It's kind of the "safe" picks of the year, because in the ACC or Big East, generally staying above .500 in conference puts you in contention for the NCAA tournament.

I do think it's pretty cool though that the top-4 were the same as the 1-seeds.

I wonder how many Sweet-16 teams will find themselves in the top-25 preseason next season? (Knowing you can probably count out the double-digit seeds.)

Since: Dec 10, 2006
Posted on: March 25, 2008 9:53 pm

Preseason rankings do mean something

Let's just cancel the season and go straight to the tournament, using the rankings for the seeding.  Butler and IUPUI couldn't get any less screwed in that situation.

Since: Feb 8, 2007
Posted on: March 25, 2008 9:43 pm

Preseason rankings do mean something

You know,  really don't think so.

I don't believe everything the selection committee says. But I do believe rankings don't matter much at all, if at all. That's how Butler slips to a No. 7 seed, because the committee doesn't consider its rankings. So I think the body of work and RPI are the two important factors while any ranking in any poll is meaningless in this regard.

Since: Aug 19, 2006
Posted on: March 25, 2008 9:26 pm

Preseason rankings do mean something

That is interesting and very impressive

Gary do you think preseason rankings have any effect by the end of the season as far as seeding goes? For example if Wisconsin was the #1 ranked team in the country in the preseason do you think they would've still earned a three seed?

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