Top 10 HS players almost always make the NBA

I wrote in my O.J. Mayo column that "the make-it-to-the-NBA rate for top 10 high school prospects is remarkably high."

Then I told you to "check the numbers" if you don't believe me.

Problem is, I didn't provide the numbers and the numbers aren't easy to check. So I've spent the past few minutes checking the numbers for you, and what I've found is indeed remarkable. I took Scout.com's top 10 lists from the Class of 2002 through the Class of 2007, looked at every prospect from those lists and given their current level of basketball.

Check it out ...

-- 2002 --

1. Amare Stoudemire (NBA)
2. Carmelo Anthony (NBA)
3. Raymond Felton (NBA)
4. Paul Davis (NBA)
5. Jason Fraser (Professional overseas)
6. Chris Bosh (NBA)
7. Rashad McCants (NBA)
8. Shelden Williams (NBA)
9. DeAngelo Collins (West Coast Pro Basketball League)
10. Sean May (NBA)

-- 2003 --

1. LeBron James (NBA)
2. Luol Deng (NBA)
3. Ndudi Ebi (Professional overseas)
4. David Padgett (Just finished college)
5. Shannon Brown (NBA)
6. Kendrick Perkins (NBA)
7. Charlie Villanueva (NBA)
8. Leon Powe (NBA)
9. Chris Paul (NBA)
10. Mustafa Shakur (Professional overseas)

-- 2004 --

1. Dwight Howard (NBA)
2. Shaun Livingston (NBA)
3. Al Jefferson (NBA)
4. Rudy Gay (NBA)
5. Josh Smith (NBA)
6. Robert Swift (NBA)
7. Marvin Williams (NBA)
8. Randolph Morris (NBA)
9. Sebastian Telfair (NBA)
10. Malik Hairston (Just finished college)

-- 2005 --

1. Josh McRoberts (NBA)
2. Gerald Green (NBA)
3. Monta Ellis (NBA)
4. Martell Webster (NBA)
5. Louis Williams (NBA)
6. Andray Blatche (NBA)
7. Tyler Hansbrough (Still in college)
8. Julian Wright (NBA)
9. Andrew Bynum (NBA)
10. C.J. Miles (NBA)

-- 2006 --

1. Greg Oden (NBA)
2. Kevin Durant (NBA)
3. Brandan Wright (NBA)
4. Spencer Hawes (NBA)
5. Ty Lawson (Just entered draft early)
6. Thaddeus Young (NBA)
7. Wayne Ellington (Just entered draft early)
8. Chase Budinger (Just entered draft early)
9. Darrell Arthur (Just entered draft early)
10. Paul Harris (Still in college)

-- 2007 --

1. OJ. Mayo (Just entered draft early)
2. Michael Beasley (Just entered draft early)
3. Kevin Love (Just entered draft early)
4. Eric Gordon (Just entered draft early)
5. Derrick Rose (Just entered draft early)
6. Kyle Singler (Still in college)
7. Bill Walker (Just entered draft early)
8. Donte' Greene (Just entered draft early)
9. Jerryd Bayless (Just entered draft early)
10. Nick Calathes (Still in college)

In all, there are 60 players listed. Of those 60, 18 -- including everybody on the 2007 list -- played college basketball this season. So that leaves 42 top 10 players from the past six classes who could've been on an NBA roster this season, and would you believe 38 actually were? The only missing players were Jason Fraser (2002), DeAngelo Collins (2002), Ndudi Ebi (2003) and Mustafa Shakur (2003), and three of those (Shakur, Ebi and Fraser) made a decent salary playing professionally overseas this season.

Anyway, here's the bottom line: The make-it-to-the-NBA rate for top 10 high school prospects since 2002 seems to be better than 90 percent. That's a stunning number, and it's why it makes sense for runners like Rodney Guillory to try to create relationships with elite prospects at an early age, because basketball is one of the few sports where being an elite level high school player practically guarantees a person will be a professional. There is almost no risk that a top 10 high school player won't make the NBA. So if you could spend $30,000 nurturing a relationship with such a player then it's reasonable to call it a wise investment (as long as you don't get caught, of course).

(It's worth noting this season's All-NBA first team -- Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Kevin Garnett and Dwight Howard -- were all top 10 high school prospects in their respective classes.)

I think you should make this list in 4 years and see where mayo is. He is such a joke. Dajuan Wagner anyone??? I just want Kelvin Sampson to say something. Come out against Tim Floyd, Miles Brand, and all other jokesters that ran him out of Bloomington. I am not a Sampson fan, but USC and Floyd knew what was going on. Sampson made too many phone calls, Floyd is allowing player to be paid while playing? No wonder he kept saying mayo needs to go to the draft, he wanted this mess to get over quick. If a player has a cell phone and he can't afford one because he came from a less fortunate family then that should be the first sign. Then the plasma?? You are telling me no USC officials ever see the players dorms? The facts dont add up, and I cant wait till this guy flops. There isn't one player on those lists that mayo was ever better than in college, hell even Ebi looked like a better pro prospect with all that athleticism. USC is garbage, so is Mayo, and Floyd. Have fun with all those scholarships lost by academics, and now potentially mayo.

kUnY111 Reputation: 84 Level: All-Star Since: Mar 12, 2008	Posted on: May 12, 2008 3:25 pm Score: 86 Top 10 HS players almost always make the NBA I think you should make this list in 4 years and see where mayo is. He is such a joke. Dajuan Wagner anyone??? I just want Kelvin Sampson to say something. Come out against Tim Floyd, Miles Brand, and all other jokesters that ran him out of Bloomington. I am not a Sampson fan, but USC and Floyd knew what was going on. Sampson made too many phone calls, Floyd is allowing player to be paid while playing? No wonder he kept saying mayo needs to go to the draft, he wanted this mess to get over quick. If a player has a cell phone and he can't afford one because he came from a less fortunate family then that should be the first sign. Then the plasma?? You are telling me no USC officials ever see the players dorms? The facts dont add up, and I cant wait till this guy flops. There isn't one player on those lists that mayo was ever better than in college, hell even Ebi looked like a better pro prospect with all that athleticism. USC is garbage, so is Mayo, and Floyd. Have fun with all those scholarships lost by academics, and now potentially mayo. [ Reply to Comment ]
eightzero Reputation: 98 Level: Superstar Since: Nov 19, 2006	Posted on: May 12, 2008 3:28 pm Score: 91 Top 10 HS players almost always make the NBA I believe is Collins is in the NBA DL playing for the Florida Flame. [ Reply to Comment ]
bjdevil Reputation: 14 Level: Amateur Since: May 12, 2008	Posted on: May 12, 2008 4:31 pm Score: 39 Jason Fraser Poor kid went through 7 surgeries at while at Villanova, could barely run straight by his senior year, and still made a pro team in Australia: http://www.australiabasket.com/play er.asp?Cntry=NZL&PlayerID=38316 [ Reply to Comment ]
TheLaw Reputation: 0 Level: Amateur Since: Apr 21, 2008	Posted on: May 12, 2008 5:26 pm Score: 43 Top 10 HS players almost always make the NBA Sorry dude, but I don't get your negative comment about Dajuan Wagner. He has been seriously sick, Did you know he had to have his colon removed because of his illness? Hope something like that doesn't happen to you. [ Reply to Comment ]
anothrsn1 Reputation: 81 Level: All-Star Since: May 11, 2008	Posted on: May 12, 2008 7:00 pm Score: 38 Top 10 HS players almost always make the NBA Even though some of these people made it to the NBA, some of them still sit on the bench and will never get any playing time. Things like this should be taken into account. [ Reply to Comment ]
Gary Parrish Reputation: 99 Level: Superstar Since: Feb 8, 2007	Posted on: May 12, 2008 7:46 pm Score: 88 Top 10 HS players almost always make the NBA The minimum salary for an NBA player -- even those sitting on the bench in his first season -- is $427,163. It's $687,456 for a guy in his second season. It's $770,610 for a guy in his third season. So even if a player is just sitting on the bench, he's still doing OK for himself. gp [ Reply to Comment ]
kUnY111 Reputation: 84 Level: All-Star Since: Mar 12, 2008	Posted on: May 12, 2008 8:07 pm Score: 84 Top 10 HS players almost always make the NBA No negative to Wagner's health, I only meant that he was never going to be the player everyone thought out of white station(?) just like Mayo will never be the player people thought 4 years ago. GP you know what the players salary is for his 4th year on the bench?? Nothing...about 20,000 to 40,000 in the nbdl or maybe just that MW of $6.50 washing cars. [ Reply to Comment ]
jgberc Reputation: 99 Level: Superstar Since: Nov 28, 2006	Posted on: May 12, 2008 9:10 pm Score: 93 Top 10 HS players almost always make the NBA GP... First, nice article, your point is well taken. Certainly the vast majority of "cant miss" prospects do indeed end up in the NBA, that is not up for debate... I do have to say that many of these young players making the league minimum are in a tenuous position. How many of those kids who leave early end up out of the league within two or three years? For those players, that league minimum of $427,163 or even 7 or 8 hundred thousand is nothing. After taxes, diamond stud earrings the size of Rhode Island, the SUV with all the trimmings (we all know that is a lot) and the money needed to live like a star makes those funds go awfully fast. What then? Is there any other possibilities once the dream of being a star in the league, let alone being a starter, fade away? How many of the names in your list will be remembered in a decade? How many will be remembered for never panning out? My guess is quite a few more than the ones who "made it" in the league and got the real guaranteed money. For every Chris Paul, there is a Chris Taft. For every Dwanye Wade, there is a Sebastian Telfair. I dont know if there are better ways to do things, but I do know a lot of young men, desparate for fame and money, are in much more dire need of mentoring and guidance. Too bad that rarely gets true consideration... [ Reply to Comment ]
Duke Fan Reputation: 99 Level: Superstar Since: Oct 23, 2006	Posted on: May 12, 2008 10:22 pm Score: 95 Top 10 HS players almost always make the NBA Eightzero, how is DeAngelo Collins playing for the Florida Flame if they don't exist anymore? Good article Garry Parrish as well. This year's class should be no different as the majority of the players in the class of 07 will be draft picks. [ Reply to Comment ]
UMKCfan22 Reputation: 95 Level: Superstar Since: Nov 24, 2006	Posted on: May 12, 2008 11:32 pm Score: 93 Top 10 HS players almost always make the NBA What he is saying is that the best players make it almost all of the time. And those that dont make it, werent very good to begin with and had no business trying. [ Reply to Comment ]

Gary Parrish

Parrish: The Thoughts