Top 10 HS players almost always make the NBA
Posted on: May 12, 2008 1:26 pm
Edited on: May 12, 2008 5:37 pm
Score: 92
I wrote in my O.J. Mayo column that "the make-it-to-the-NBA rate for top 10 high school prospects is remarkably high."
Then I told you to "check the numbers" if you don't believe me.
Problem is, I didn't provide the numbers and the numbers aren't easy to check. So I've spent the past few minutes checking the numbers for you, and what I've found is indeed remarkable. I took Scout.com's top 10 lists from the Class of 2002 through the Class of 2007, looked at every prospect from those lists and given their current level of basketball.
Check it out ...
-- 2002 --
1. Amare Stoudemire (NBA)
2. Carmelo Anthony (NBA)
3. Raymond Felton (NBA)
4. Paul Davis (NBA)
5. Jason Fraser (Professional overseas)
6. Chris Bosh (NBA)
7. Rashad McCants (NBA)
8. Shelden Williams (NBA)
9. DeAngelo Collins (West Coast Pro Basketball League)
10. Sean May (NBA)
-- 2003 --
1. LeBron James (NBA)
2. Luol Deng (NBA)
3. Ndudi Ebi (Professional overseas)
4. David Padgett (Just finished college)
5. Shannon Brown (NBA)
6. Kendrick Perkins (NBA)
7. Charlie Villanueva (NBA)
8. Leon Powe (NBA)
9. Chris Paul (NBA)
10. Mustafa Shakur (Professional overseas)
-- 2004 --
1. Dwight Howard (NBA)
2. Shaun Livingston (NBA)
3. Al Jefferson (NBA)
4. Rudy Gay (NBA)
5. Josh Smith (NBA)
6. Robert Swift (NBA)
7. Marvin Williams (NBA)
8. Randolph Morris (NBA)
9. Sebastian Telfair (NBA)
10. Malik Hairston (Just finished college)
-- 2005 --
1. Josh McRoberts (NBA)
2. Gerald Green (NBA)
3. Monta Ellis (NBA)
4. Martell Webster (NBA)
5. Louis Williams (NBA)
6. Andray Blatche (NBA)
7. Tyler Hansbrough (Still in college)
8. Julian Wright (NBA)
9. Andrew Bynum (NBA)
10. C.J. Miles (NBA)
-- 2006 --
1. Greg Oden (NBA)
2. Kevin Durant (NBA)
3. Brandan Wright (NBA)
4. Spencer Hawes (NBA)
5. Ty Lawson (Just entered draft early)
6. Thaddeus Young (NBA)
7. Wayne Ellington (Just entered draft early)
8. Chase Budinger (Just entered draft early)
9. Darrell Arthur (Just entered draft early)
10. Paul Harris (Still in college)
-- 2007 --
1. OJ. Mayo (Just entered draft early)
2. Michael Beasley (Just entered draft early)
3. Kevin Love (Just entered draft early)
4. Eric Gordon (Just entered draft early)
5. Derrick Rose (Just entered draft early)
6. Kyle Singler (Still in college)
7. Bill Walker (Just entered draft early)
8. Donte' Greene (Just entered draft early)
9. Jerryd Bayless (Just entered draft early)
10. Nick Calathes (Still in college)
In all, there are 60 players listed. Of those 60, 18 -- including everybody on the 2007 list -- played college basketball this season. So that leaves 42 top 10 players from the past six classes who could've been on an NBA roster this season, and would you believe 38 actually were? The only missing players were Jason Fraser (2002), DeAngelo Collins (2002), Ndudi Ebi (2003) and Mustafa Shakur (2003), and three of those (Shakur, Ebi and Fraser) made a decent salary playing professionally overseas this season.
Anyway, here's the bottom line: The make-it-to-the-NBA rate for top 10 high school prospects since 2002 seems to be better than 90 percent. That's a stunning number, and it's why it makes sense for runners like Rodney Guillory to try to create relationships with elite prospects at an early age, because basketball is one of the few sports where being an elite level high school player practically guarantees a person will be a professional. There is almost no risk that a top 10 high school player won't make the NBA. So if you could spend $30,000 nurturing a relationship with such a player then it's reasonable to call it a wise investment (as long as you don't get caught, of course).
(It's worth noting this season's All-NBA first team -- Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Kevin Garnett and Dwight Howard -- were all top 10 high school prospects in their respective classes.)
Comments Add a Comment
w4dxnKY
Reputation: 34Level: Rookie Since: Feb 18, 2008 |
Posted on: May 15, 2008 10:46 am
Score: 67
Top 10 HS players almost always make the NBAI am a traditionalist. Not so much that I ignore the obvious financial implications involved in this topic. But dosen't this drip with irony, the very tool needed to make wise use of the almost 2M guaranteed in the rookie salary structure is being voluntarily and anxiously disguarded ....... a college education!!!
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drinkin bizzles Level: Superstar Since: Sep 6, 2007 |
Posted on: May 14, 2008 10:27 am
Score: 89
Top 10 HS players almost always make the NBAi know its a little off topic, but im curious as to what the average top 10 h.s. picks are to making it in the pros is for other major sports in the country? i know its probably drastically lower, other than maybe baseball?
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vtsportsboy92
Reputation: 95Level: Superstar Since: May 9, 2007 |
Posted on: May 14, 2008 9:26 am
Score: 83
Top 10 HS players almost always make the NBAAny of us would still love to have there salary.( Them being ANYONE in the NBA.)
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Defender61
Reputation: 0 Level: Amateur Since: Aug 10, 2006 |
Posted on: May 13, 2008 7:31 pm
Score: 94
This comment has been removed.
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OrangeViper
Reputation: 87 Level: All-Star Since: Apr 15, 2008 |
Posted on: May 13, 2008 3:37 pm
Score: 38
Top 10 HS players almost always make the NBA.... during his first year in the NBA.
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OrangeViper
Reputation: 87 Level: All-Star Since: Apr 15, 2008 |
Posted on: May 13, 2008 3:35 pm
Score: 42
Top 10 HS players almost always make the NBAThe top 10 HS players seem to always show up in the NBA. Even though Mayo doesn't recieve as much attention as Lebron did when he was in HS doesn't mean that he's not gonna be as good. I bet anybody that wants to bet, that Mayo will average 20 points a game his rookie season, and will keep that average his second year, he might even be an all-star his first year. I take that back, out of his rookie season he will be the only one to make the all-star game out of the lottery draft, and he might even when the dunk contest. Very bad comparison, O.J Mayo had to be one of the biggest ball hogs in the nation. There's no way that O.J Mayo is going to put up numbers like Lebron James in the NBA , not even close. For starters Lebron averaged 21 points, 5.5 rebounds and 6 assists per game in his rookie season. O.J Mayo averaged 21 points, 3 assists and 4.5 rebounds per game his freshman season in college. Lebron James is a 6'8" SG and Mayo is a 6'4" PG. I see Lebron with ability to rebound in the NBA , I don't see Mayo turning into a player that will be able to rebound against the bigger forwards and centers. His (Mayo's) rebounding numbers will fall by a couple of rebounds per game in the NBA, which will bring his average down to about two rebounds per game. His three point shooting percentage will also go down because of the extra length of the three point line in the NBA, and since he's so selfish he'll only look worse trying to do everything by himself. Remember, this guy isn't a Carmello Anthony or a Lebron James, he's O.J Mayo. You can't even compare their size, Derrick Rose is a better point guard and he averaged 15 points, 5 assists and 5 rebounds per game, and he's 6'3". They're only comparing him to Jason Kidd, you can't compare O.J Mayo to Lebron James, end of story. Don't be so confident about him being the only rookie that will make the all-star team either. You know there are other freshman that are better than Mayo with the likes of Michael Beasley and another PG that you can compare your O.J Mayo to, Jerryd Bayless that's just as good as Mayo, if not better. And you know, D.J Augistin is way better than Mayo, so if you're saying O.J Mayo will make the NBA all star team during his first year, you're crazy. It doesn't matter which side of the country Mayo's playing on. He's not going to an all star game after his first year.
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His Airness Level: Superstar Since: Mar 9, 2007 |
Posted on: May 13, 2008 3:02 pm
Score: 89
Top 10 HS players almost always make the NBAi would argue that just because a lot of those guys have made the NBA doesn't mean they "made it." there are a lot of guys on that list that won't be on an NBA roster for long. i cant believe that Josh McRoberts and Gerald Green were #1,2. WOW! thats a miss!
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mountaineersfan
Reputation: 93 Level: All-Star Since: Oct 17, 2006 |
Posted on: May 13, 2008 2:17 pm
Score: 81
Top 10 HS players almost always make the NBA The top 10 HS players seem to always show up in the NBA. Even though Mayo doesn't recieve as much attention as Lebron did when he was in HS doesn't mean that he's not gonna be as good. I bet anybody that wants to bet, that Mayo will average 20 points a game his rookie season, and will keep that average his second year, he might even be an all-star his first year. I take that back, out of his rookie season he will be the only one to make the all-star game out of the lottery draft, and he might even when the dunk contest.
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kwilliams5
Reputation: 98 Level: Superstar Since: Oct 15, 2007 |
Posted on: May 13, 2008 2:15 pm
Score: 85
Top 10 HS players almost always make the NBAJason Fraser was the next big thing coming out of Amityville but surgeries really crushed his career. Him and AJ Price were state title taking home machines.
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kUnY111
Reputation: 90 Level: All-Star Since: Mar 12, 2008 |
Posted on: May 13, 2008 1:56 pm
Score: 86
Top 10 HS players almost always make the NBAgp
-how do you leave off BJ Mullens from your 09 list?? he is the new number one prospect for that year. Monroe is just barely in the top 10 according to rivals. Also sorry I used Wagner for my example, didn't know it would have caused such a stir in some people, he just was never as good as he was made out to be period. Even in college and his first year in the league...before he got sick. And if he was sick all this time then all the scouts are just as wrong as me for putting a sick person as a potential NBA superstar.
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