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Blog Entry

How are the Orioles doing it?

Posted on: April 24, 2008 2:15 pm
 

Well, the Orioles have the ninth best record in baseball right now, and I'm thrilled.  I mean, we O's fans feared as bad as a 100-loss season, and didn't expect to rush out of the gates so much as fall out of them on our face.  When I look at the stat lines, they say, just like the "preseason paper" that we shouldn't have quite the record we do.  Shouldn't be among the worst, but we shouldn't be in the top third either.  So why are we doing so well?  Timeliness and small things.  Mostly, though, I credit the pitching staff for being much better than the numbers might indicate.

In general:

The team ERA is 4.18 (16th), The starters' ERA is 4.55 (20th) and the bullpen ERA is 3.50 (9th).  Only the bullpen numbers look very good.  The thing is, all three of those numbers actually make things look worse than they have been, especially lately.  Despite those ERAs, the staff has compiled 11 Quality Starts (T-8th), is 80% converting save opportunities (including 7-7 from the closer), and most of the bullpen has been outstanding.  The thing I noticed after looking hard was that the days when the pitchers failed were almost universally either games where we either had even more offense than we gave up or where we barely scored anything and would've lost even with a decent pitching effort (exception: the 10-5 loss to the Rays when the 'pen gave up 8).  The pitchers have given up runs in bunches, but if you ask me that's OK.  Losing by 5 is no worse than losing by 2, and I'd rather the pitchers give up three more runs then than in the other games, which we've been winning by 1 or 2.  It's also very worth noting that almost all of the starters are exhibiting a trend of improvement nearly every trip to the mound.  This clearly won't continue forever, but it is a heck of a good sign.

A closer look at the starters:

Jeremy Guthrie has an ERA over 4.  This looks bad.  The thing is, it has been dropping, because his first start was also his worst (and his only bad one).  He has no wins, but he has put together 4 quality starts in 5 chances.  This seems to be a trend for him...we didn't score for him last year either. 

Adam Loewen's ERA is the ugliest of the bunch, but it too has come down every start, and his innings pitched have gone up each time out, as well.  His most recent start was a quality start, his first since returning to the fold. 

Daniel Cabrera is showing signs that maybe, possibly, could-it-be, perhaps he is maturing into the pither he was projected to be.  Every single start his ERA has dropped...A LOT.  After his first start it was 13, and 4 starts later it's under 4.5.  It dropped by 33%, 34%, 13%, and 14%.  He's starting to show control, and has now ripped off three straight quality starts.

Brian Burres has had one bad inning all year, and it has ballooned his ERA.  Even with that stretch, it's under 4.  He's only had 1 quality start, but he's also only started 3 games.  He also appeared once in relief, as Matt Albers appeared once in the rotation (this proves we have two VERY capable swing men).

Steve Trachsel has been Steve Trachsel.  He always allows baserunners, and you can usually count on him to stay on the mound for a reasonable number of innings and allow a limited number of those baserunners to score.  He has two quality starts, one that he missed by only a third of an inning, and one bad outing.  He hasn't really followed the "improvement" trend, but he's the nly one who doesn't need to because he's proven year after year to be a reasonably dependable back-of-the-rotation guy.

A closer look at the bullpen:

This unit actually has numbers that are very good, especially when compared to last year's pen.  They've dropped 2.21 runs from the ERA.  Consider the following as well: we were worried about overwork, but they've actually pitched only 64.1 innings, which is the 8th fewest in the league.  Could be better, but I wouldn't complain much about that stat.  I think the ERA of a relief pitcher is nearly meaningless, because 1 bad outing drives it wildly high compared to the kind of performance you can usually expect.  I prefer to look at percentage of appearances in which an ER is allowed before anything else.  Some of the Orioles staff with high ERAs look good in this light: Jamie Walker has appeared in ten games but only allowed runs twice, George Sherril has appeared 9 times and allowed runs twice (once in a non-save and once he picked up the save anyway), Chad Bradford in 8 games while allowing runs twice.  Matt Albers only allowed a run once, and it was in a start.  Randor Bierd and Jim Johnson haven't allowed runs at all yet.  The only ones who look "bad"  by this standard are Greg Aquino and to a lesser extent Dennis Sarfate (3 of 5 and 3 of 9 respectively).

What does it all mean?

Obviously, there are factors other than pitching that are winning games for the Orioles.  Defense, stolen bases, timely hitting all come to mind.  The above tells me several things.  First, this club WILL continue to be better than expected (not playoffs; I'm an optimist but not that much).  Not all of the pitchers are going to last, but some of them are bound to.  Second, it tells me to do the following with the bullpen (ot immediately, but ultimately): keep Sherrill (I want to see Sherril, Ray, and Baez fight it out for the closer/setup roles for next year), release Aquino, and puff Sarfate up for a trade.  Walker and Bradford can go or stay.  Johnson and Albers are a bright future to bridge the gap.  Third, itt ells me that this year's Orioles team is a young, exciting, scrappy team who will find a way to win games rather than an aging, deflated team that will find a way to lose them.

 

Category: MLB
Comments

Since: Apr 8, 2008
Posted on: May 28, 2008 10:59 am
 

How are the Orioles doing it?

all u can say is wow when u see the orioles above .500 after loosing their two best players in Tejada and Bedard but that really seemed to workout  for us because of the great prospects we got.  No one expected the Orioles to be among the best and in the race for the east even this early in the seaseon.  The Orioles have really improved on defense and have good team speed. The only thing we need now is someone that can hit above .300 cause everyone seems to be below .250 and we need power to the gaps cause we are middle of the pack in homeruns but almost last in doubles. I hope they bring up the catcher Wieters from the minors soon he seems to have power to all fields and Ramon Hernandez has seriously fallen off.  I was really pessimistic entering this season but these young players have really showed me something and I'm thinking playoffs (not this year, but soon).



Since: Sep 19, 2006
Posted on: April 25, 2008 8:57 am
 

How are the Orioles doing it?

I personaly think they are just playing relaxed and having fun!  That simple.  Somthing that has not been seen around these parts for a LONG time. 



Since: Apr 17, 2008
Posted on: April 25, 2008 8:37 am
 

How are the Orioles doing it?

I'm a huge Orioles fan as well, and am smart enough not to be predicting World Series champs just yet, but the signs are good.  If only we could package Angelos and the rest of Albert Belle's contract in a trade, we'd be set for the future.  We'll see what happens as we hit the dog days of summer, cause that's when it seems the Orioles deflate and end up in 4th place as usual.  If we don't end up in last place this year, with the squad we started with and the trades we made, it's a testament to the coaches, even though we all know that Angelos will take all the credit for ALL Orioles Good fortunes and NEVER take blame for all their shortcomings.



Since: Jan 15, 2007
Posted on: April 25, 2008 5:45 am
 

How are the Orioles doing it?

Of course I post this and then that very night the formula is seriously broken.  Randor Bierd and George Sherrill, and Matt Albers as well, did what we need to do.  Loewen admitted to injury, so now what?

I said above that Matt Albers is a capable swingman, but do we immediately slot him in or turn to Garrett Olson and keep Albers where he is?  I lean toward the latter, because the 13-man staff might be a good idea since Olson still needs to probve himself up here and Burres can't be counted on to go long.  Trembley has said he likes Albers in the long man role.



Since: Dec 30, 2006
Posted on: April 24, 2008 4:53 pm
 

How are the Orioles doing it?

You can't really think the starters are as bad as they have been. Look at the last 5 games.....

Cabrera vs. Yankees - 2 ER

Burres vs. Yankees - 0 ER

Trachsel vs. Yankees - 4 ER

Guthrie vs. Mariners - 4 ER

Cabrera vs. Mariners - 2 ER


Even Trachsel and Guthrie didn't fall apart till the late innings. The once lackluster starters are improving and most of its because of Rick Kranitz.

 

 



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