Blog Entry

Lucky Losers: Take One

Posted on: September 13, 2011 10:16 am
It's never too soon to handicap the field for Stanford's Andrew Luck, a slam-dunk as the first pick in next year's draft, so let's get started. Essentially, this season goes this: You lose, and you win. That's right, the lucky loser gets a parting gift, and that gift is Luck, the most promising collegiate quarterback in years. The question, of course, is: Who is the Lucky Loser? Ah, that's why I'm here. Each week I'll rank the field, dissecting the tired, the poor, the huddled masses yearning to be last, and let the roll call begin.

5. Cleveland-- That's five straight losses dating back to last season, including two to Cincinnati. The Browns aren't all that bad. In fact, I'll be surprised if they hang around our Bottom Five long. But that season-opening defeat does make you realize how intoxicating Atlanta's offer of five draft choices for Julio Jones was. Cleveland needs playmakers like McDonald's needs hamburger buns ... yet it passed on Jones. Oh, well, it could be another long year, Cleveland, and you know the drill. But look at this way: At least you have a quarterback. Now he needs help.

Next loss: Good news, Browns fans, your team just drew Indianapolis. You may pick up a "Get out of jail" card next Sunday.
4. Seattle -- OK, so the Seahawks lost their fifth straight road game, including the playoffs. Big deal. They lost to San Francisco last season, too, yet won the division ... then beat the defending Super Bowl champions. But there is something wrong in Emerald City, and that something is defense. There isn't one. In fact, there hasn't been for some time. Sunday's loss marked the eighth time in the last 10 starts that Seattle hemorrhaged 30 or more points, with opponents averaging 31.4 points in that span. That puts your quarterback at a disadvantage, and Seattle's quarterback is Tarvaris Jackson. Check, please.

Next loss: at Pittsburgh
3. Tennessee -- When the Titans made Vince Young the third pick of the 2006 draft they waited until the fourth game to swtich quarterbacks, sitting down Kerry Collins and sending Young on to the field. The same scenario could play out here, with Jake Locker getting the call, and maybe it should. There is talent, but without Chris Johnson doing much of anything -- and he had 24 yards rushing the other day -- the Titans are toast. I like Matt Hasselbeck, and he's a solid veteran who can win you games. But he keeps the position warm until Locker is ready. Locker is the future, and at some point, maybe soon, fans won't tolerate another lost season. They'll want a glimpse of the future.

Next loss: Baltimore

2. Kansas City -- This one's a little tough to digest. Eight months ago the Chiefs were a playoff team, coming off a sensational 10-6 season that earned them a division championship. But that was then, and this is now, and now they're in disarray. They just lost safety Eric Berry for the season. They lost tight end Tony Moeaki for the season. They lost to Buffalo ... at home, no less, where they were 7-1 a year ago. And it wasn't just a defeat; it was a blowout. Worse, it was to ...Buffalo. Obviously, they can right themselves quickly because they did a year ago. But there are disturbing signs that make me wonder if that's possible. I already pegged them as a team that would slide. I didn't think it would be this far.

Next loss:: at Detroit

1. INDIANAPOLIS -- Someone asked me if team vice chairman Bill Polian was so brilliant that he chose this year to tank the season. Preposterious. Unthikable. Ridiculous. I mean, they're not down here with Peyton Manning, right? Except they don't have Manning and may not for the season. So where does that put them? At the back of the class, that's where. The Colts aren't just hapless without Manning; they look pretty hopeless, too. Sad, huh? Not if you're interested in the long-term future of the franchise. I see where coach Jim Caldwell said the mistakes they committed vs. Houston are "all correctable". For the long-term health of the franchise, I hope not. If you're going to stink, this is the year to bottom out. Don't just be 5-11 bad or 4-12. Go for the gold. Make it 2-14 or 1-15. Heck, take no chances and pull a Detroit Lions. So you sacrifice a year. You gain a franchise quarterback for the next 10. People tell me the Colts should start looking for another quarterback, and maybe they're right. Start Curtis Painter, and hope for the worst.

Next loss: Cleveland.

Category: NFL

Since: Oct 2, 2007
Posted on: September 13, 2011 10:13 pm

Lucky Losers: Take One

As a matter of a fact i think theirs more mid level teams willing to move up for Luck then there are crappy teams at the bottom of the pack that their biggest need is QB or even if it is QB wouldnt benefit more from the trade package they would receive from moving out of that spot. San Diego was the doormat of the NFL until they made the LT and Rivers moves.

Redskins - Dan Snyder loves big offseaon moves and Shanahan would love John Elway 2.0 to take him back to the big dance, plus the lack of moves made at the position by a guy who makes a lot of moves typically (shanahan + QB carosel = common place) suggests hes positioning for something, unless Beck and Grossman is the long term plan.

Cowboys - if Romo blows it again its time to look to the future, they should be a good team but Jones is the guy to make the move, Hershel Walker, Roy Williams just to name a few moves from the past.

Raiders - Campbell is not the futre, the rest of the team is young and Davis has always been a fan of moving picks and moving around in a draft. John Elway drew him up the board I wouldnt be surprised to see Luck do the same.

San Francisco - Im not even going to elaborate

Denver - Tebow is moveable and forgetable and tell me that doesnt make sense, actually they could be drafting in the position to start with

Cleveland - they fit every category ive mentioned, could be drafting here, could trade up, could decide theyre fine with Colt

Houston - Schaub could get hurt, again, causing the franchise to think to the future, hes not a spring chicken anyways, planning ahead never hurts, especially now that theyve drafted high at just about every other position there is.

Miami - Henne is running out of time, they have a lot of needs other then QB but dont rule them out

Buffalo - could flame out and look for them to get lost in a tough division no matter how much they over achieve this year

and lastly, quite a wild card, but keep your eyes on the Saints as a potential dark horse in this race! 

Since: Oct 2, 2007
Posted on: September 13, 2011 9:58 pm

Lucky Losers: Take One

The problem I have with this quality CBS opinion is that it seems as though youre not taking into consideration games beyond week one (except saying the Chiefs may still right the ship) and youre not considering whether a team would absolutely take Luck if they have the first overall pick.

Two reason a team may not take him. The obvious being QB is not their issue such as the Chiefs, Titans, and Cleveland just from this list alone... Carolina of course wouldnt draft back to back first overall QBs and Cincinnatti I believe is pretty gung-ho about Dalton. Colts have to battle the Brett Favre-esque concerns of drafting Aaron Rodgers and alienating the greatest player in franchise history. I think Manning is a little more mentally stable and Polian is all business but Irsay has a serious man crush on Manning and that could get sloppy, not to mention if Manning is good for 3-4 more years you want a guy in 2 from now, not next year.

The second reason not to take Luck is maybe more relevant. Thanks to the newly signed CBA theres now a rookie wage scale. Rather then making 60+ million in guaranteed money, Cam Newton got nerfed down to the mid 20's, the first overall pick has value again. Reminds me of the Eli Manning and Mike Vick trade ups. So I ask, why wouldnt a team that is solid, no glarring needs not trade up to get the man they want or better yet prepare for the future as a great business would do, much like what i feel Atlanta did in moving up to get Julio Jones this last draft or Chicago did in mortgaging a couple drafts for Cutler (which is looking smarter and smarter all the time).

Watch for a team like the Colts, Chiefs or Panthers to land that spot but be smart enough business minded organizations to trade out of the spot, reboot the franchise with young players and move forward with the currently invested in and serviceable QB they have while mavericks like the Cowboys or Raiders spend every pick for the next decade to go get John Elway 2.0 since they came just short moving up last time around. 

Since: Jan 23, 2007
Posted on: September 13, 2011 9:49 pm

Lucky Losers: Take One

The Seattle defense played average against a below average offensive team in San Francisco. They may have only given up 209 yards on the day, but that doesn't account for the 102 penalty yards that counted against them. Alex Smith is a terrible quarterback in yet another new system he is not equipped to run. The Seahawks were just less bad on the day, and should be ashamed of themselves for signing Tarvaris Jackson rather than making a run with Charlie Whitehurst.

You can't write off the opponent just because it doesn't fit your argument.

Since: Oct 2, 2007
Posted on: September 13, 2011 9:44 pm

Lucky Losers: Take One

seattle giving up two special teams TDs in 3 minutes would qualify as hemoraging points I think. Its cracks me up that most fans can admit when theyre rebuilding, or lacking, or maybe just not running the proper scheme but Seahawks fans hot off a whopping 7-9 playoff birth, due to other teams inadequacies not their own success, will try and talk as if theyre not a bad team. The 49ers have no QB, an aging running back, questionable at best receivers, a very young line and a defense that underachieves especially thanks to the paper bag they call their secondary.

Cool, you held a dismal 49ers team to 209 yards and still found a way to get beat pretty bad. Out played in all but the third quarter and how many yards did you put up on a team that went, what, 4-12 last season, started 0-6 i believe. Yeah, you guys are fine, great team, why would you want Andrew Luck, you have Jesus himself as your back up QB. hahaha, semantics is what we call it when you argue whether the Hawks are the worst or in the bottom five, wait, maybe theyre only sixth worst in the league, fight the good fight seattle fans. 

Since: May 16, 2011
Posted on: September 13, 2011 9:05 pm

Lucky Losers: Take One

Judge = fail.

Like my Hawk brethern below pointed out. You don't even get the easy facts right. The Seattle defense actually played very well on Sunday (albeit against SF), it was the Special Teams that killed us, giving up 2 returns to Ginn.

30 points on defense? Wrong. 

Since: Jul 3, 2007
Posted on: September 13, 2011 8:27 pm

Lucky Losers: Take One

Let's not rule out the Panthers here, they've got a rookie at QB and they get Green Bay next week. Wow Carolina could be talking about a third straight first round QB pick. Fortunately, I think any teams QB search could end with Luck

Since: Sep 29, 2009
Posted on: September 13, 2011 7:49 pm

Lucky Losers: Take One

Judge obviously has no idea what he is talking about! The Hawks special teams gave up 14 points. Have u seen anything on this game or do you just see the score and make up some crap? Time for someone to do their job well and not take the lazy way out. What a joke!

Since: Sep 15, 2009
Posted on: September 13, 2011 7:43 pm

Lucky Losers: Take One

I agree that Seattle's D wasn't necessarily the main issue THIS sunday, but don't ignore the stats he brought up...31 points allowed on average, and your defense is DEFINITELY a huge liability.

Similarly, I don't really think Indy will end with a bottom 5 record with or without Manning (though I  do think he'll come back late...since it isn't very Manning-ly to wait the full recovery period and/or agree to going on IR). Still, they definitely put up a bottom 3 performance Sunday, and I loved the comedic insight.

Clark Judge, you always find a way to give its credibility back after Prisco trashes it. Thank you.

Since: Nov 21, 2008
Posted on: September 13, 2011 7:34 pm

Lucky Losers: Take One

Seahawks D was stout.  The line didn't give up dittley, got good pressure, and only gave up 209 total yards. The only TD the SF offense scored was after a brutal PI call on Browner that gave them 1st and goal (after a 14yd punt return from Ginn had them starting at mid-field).  BTW, I'm not a big fan of his, but the only pick Tavaris threw was a hail mary.

Since: Sep 4, 2011
Posted on: September 13, 2011 7:14 pm

Lucky Losers: Take One

That's a ridiculous analysis.

Cleveland was expected to beat the Bengals but defense wasn't as good as it could have been. It was good, just not as good. (Especially on the A.J. Greene TD!! An absolutely absurd play.)

Seattle had very good defense compared to seasons ago. THEY NEED A QB!!!!!!!!! They have to find some way to get rolling down the field to score points. Defense can win ball games but how do you expect to do that when your offense can't keep up?

Tennessee has one of the best runninig backs in the leauge (even if he is a big whiner). They didn't give him enough touches on offense and the O-Line wasn't too great either. Chris Johnson needs to step up and play to the capability of his contract which is enormous!!!!!!

Kansas City is more or less a lost cause. Getting beat by the Bills as badly as they did is crazy and uncalled for. They have the running back potential and the WR core to win games with. They just need to make some tweaks here and there. (DEFENSE)

Indianapolis is pretty much screwed without Manning. He was the heart of that team and sorry to say it but I think this horse is dead this season. I mean Manning is a great QB but how well off will he be after the surgery and rehab is complete? Overall, Cleveland will be the winners of this upcoming game.

The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or