Blog Entry

Lucky Losers: Take Two

Posted on: September 20, 2011 11:10 am
Edited on: September 20, 2011 3:16 pm
 
Two games into the season, and the field is starting to firm up for Andrew Luck, the first pick in next year's draft. Kansas City and Indianapolis appear to be the real deals, and it's not a stretch to imagine their Oct. 9 date in Indianapolis as the Andrew Luck Bowl, with the Lucky Loser taking a giant step toward the Stanford quarterback. But that's three weeks away. In the meantime, let's take a look at the early frontrunners:


5. Miami. Bad news, Miami fans. Your team goes on the road where, yes, it can win. Miami needs Andrew Luck like Texas needs rain, so a win complicates the future. Honestly, there's no way the Dolphins stay here long, but losing 11 of your last 12 home games qualifies for some list, and, congratulations, Tony Sparano, you just made it here. The Dolphins were supposed to have so many answers on defense they could overcome the shortcomings of the other half of the football team. Not so fast. In two games they rank dead last in overall defense and 30th against the pass.   Granted, they had to defend Tom Brady and Matt Schaub, but didn't someone tell us this was the best tandem of cornerbacks in the business? Yeah, sure, and Darrelle Revis is overhyped.

Next loss:
at Cleveland. This one's iffy. Cleveland hasn't won a home opener since 2004, and the Dolphins last year won their first four road games. In fact, they won six of eight there. Uh-oh.

4. Minnesota.  
I'll tell you why Christian Ponder looks so good to Minnesota fans: Because he hasn't thrown a pass. OK, so he's not Donovan McNabb, either. McNabb has taken a raft of grief for the Vikings' problems, but cut the guy slack. He's not the one who couldn't protect second-half leads. He just couldn't pad them. So fans want a change, and patience, people. Give the guy time, and I'm talking about McNabb AND Ponder. One's not ready to leave, and the other's not ready to stay. In the meantime, keep featuring Adrian Peterson, and you have a chance ... a chance ... to check out of the Lucky Hotel.

Next loss:
Detroit. The Lions have Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson. The Vikings have the 23rd-ranked pass defense. What do you think happens?

3. Seattle.
People keep telling me the Seahawks aren't as bad as they seem and that they'll steady themselves once they get home to the 12th Man, which is this weekend. But then I look at who's taking the snaps, and, I'm sorry, but the Seahawks could play with 12, 13 or 14 men and it wouldn't matter. Not when Tarvaris Jackson is your quarterback, and Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett carry the football. The result's going to be the same, and that's not good. Seattle ranks last in offense, can't run, can't pass, can't block and has Sidney Rice and Robert Gallery -- two of its biggest offseason acquisitions -- sidelined indefinitely. You want to know the straightest road south? You just found it.
 
Next loss:
Arizona. The Cardinals fixed the quarterback position. Seattle did not. Seeing is believing, and here's where you can tell.

2. Indianapolis.
The more I watch the Colts the more I think Peyton Manning is the NFL's most underpaid quarterback. He makes all the difference in Indianapolis, and when he's gone so is hope for this football team.  I don't fault Kerry Collins for the Colts' bellyflop. The poor guy was thrown into an impossible situation. These aren't the 2008 Tennessee Titans. The Colts are built around the quarterback, and that quarterback is Peyton Manning, not Collins. One local columnist already is calling for the team to hire Brett Favre, to which I say, "Huh?" Bad enough to stink. But now you want the circus to come to town? Brett Favre isn't going to fix this. Nobody but Peyton Manning is going to fix this, and my suggestion is that once the ship starts to list, don't wait on Favre or Manning. Give the ball instead to ... you guessed it ... Curtis Painter. If you're going down, sink to the bottom with young players, not old ones. 

Next loss:
Pittsburgh. You saw what happened to Seattle. Get ready for more of the same, Warren Sapp. Let's see ... Ben Roethlisberger or Kerry Collins? Check, please.

1. Kansas City. 
The Chiefs lost tight end Tony Moeaki for the season. They lost safety Eric Berry for the season. They lost star running back Jamaal Charles for the season. You know it's grim when you lose more starters than ballgames. But give these guys time. They're going to lose a lot of ballgames, too. In two games they've been outscored 99-10, and, yes, that's a sign of how bad it is at Arrowhead. So what happened? Well, look beyond the injuries to turnovers. The Chiefs have a zillion of them. In fact, through two games they have nine. Nobody has more. In 2010, they had 14. Only one club (New England) had fewer. At the rate they're going they'll set an NFL record with 72, and we all know that won't happen. But neither will winning. These guys soared to the top of the AFC West last year with an error-free quarterback, the league's best rushing attack and an efficient and effective offense. Now, Matt Cassel has as many interceptions (4) through two games as he had through 12 a year ago, the top running back is gone and nobody can hold on to the football. Paint it black.

Next loss: 
at San Diego. The last time the Chiefs went there they lost 31-0. Of course, that was without Cassel. Now they're without Charles ... and Berry ... and Moeaki ... and hope.





















Category: NFL
Comments

Since: Mar 22, 2008
Posted on: September 20, 2011 6:59 pm
 

Lucky Losers: Take Two

the SUCK for LUCK will be determined on the field. indy plays KC in a few weeks. the winner is the one who loses IMO

but i agree with the poster who said..i dont think it will be the colts because their other stars have too much pride. as for KC..they have nobody left to give a...about pride. not only do i think their coach is fired before the season ends, i think they they replace cassell as well.

 



Since: Dec 17, 2006
Posted on: September 20, 2011 6:44 pm
 

Lucky Losers: Take Two

KC slogan for 2011-12 season: "Suck for Luck"




Since: Sep 25, 2009
Posted on: September 20, 2011 5:47 pm
 

Lucky Losers: Take Two

I think they're starting Collins and keeping their current HC (I forgot his name but he's awful) in order to land Luck.  Signing Collins is so dumb that I have to believe it was a premeditated attempt to sabotage the team.  Even Reggie Wayne made it pretty clear that Painter would be able to run that offense better than anyone else they could get (short of Peyton's miraculous recovery).

My guess is they wait a few more weeks and then IR Peyton just in case they think he might make it back for the second half of the season.  Then they wait until the end of the year to fire their current coach.  Then they get Luck and have him sit for 3-4 years behind Peyton and continue to dominate.  It is almost unfair.  It's like the Spurs tanking when David Robinson was injured just so they could get Tim Duncan and then keep winning.



Since: Sep 5, 2006
Posted on: September 20, 2011 5:13 pm
 

Lucky Losers: Take Two

While I do think the Colts are about as bad of a team as there is in the NFL this year (without Peyton), there is one big reason I don't think they will land in this spot...pride.  The Colts, while they may not have won as many SB's as we fans would have liked, have always represented themselves with pride and class.  Players like Wayne, Freeney, Brackett and Dallas Clark will NOT allow the Colts to be this bad all year long.  Eventually, they will get it somewhat together and pull out some W's...not enough to make the playoffs, mind you, but enough to not be the #1 pick.

However, if they DO get the #1 pick, I can see this as a potential boon for the franchise.  Here is my scenerio:  Trade the pick.

Yep, trade Luck.  There will be a team near around 10-15 that will drastically overpay for that pick.  They will give the Colts their #1, their #1 next year, plus 2-3 other picks for that slot.  Then, the Colts pick a "2nd tier" QB (like Kellen Moore of BSU) to develop with that pick, and stock up with younger players to fortify the team and prepare for the next QB regime...meanwhile, having a strong and competitive time built around Peyton for as long as he continues to play.

It will be a lesser version of Dallas in the Walker trade, but could put the Colts back into contention, even after Peyton retires.

Just a thought.

Of course, its pretty disheartening to be thinking about draft trade scenerios already in the season...



Since: Oct 2, 2007
Posted on: September 20, 2011 4:36 pm
 

Lucky Losers: Take Two

I believe this to be the article of the now if you will. A running game show of whos going to take Luck because Ive never seen so many pathetic teams all at once in the NFL but I see there being two problems:


1. Andrew Luck isnt Michael Vick, the next Manning or Lebron James. Yeah hes good, yeah hes mature, yeah hes a physical specimen. But sacrifice everything on this kid, sounds more like a gamble then the answer to a franchises struggles. His greatest quality is that he plays in a pro style offense annnnd last time i checked theres about 5 good teams in the NFL that run a pro style offense. Whats so terrible about drafting stud college players to play the spread offenses theyre used to playing at the next level where its becoming popular.


2. its basically the same point as the first, why would you pass on a LT to anchor your line for 10+ years or a dominant D linemen to build a defense (that will win you championships as they say) off of when you can grab a second round QB like a Nick Foles or a Russel Martin. The joy of a player like that in the second round is also that you can justify sitting them on the bench for a year to learn and most teams right now either have a veteran QB that can get them through another so so season (Matt Cassell) or a younger guy that may not be the future yet we dont know yet (Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton).  Also there have become a few QB factories in this league and Id rather spend a first round pick in a trade on a guy sitting on the bench in Green Bay, New England or Philadelphia.


As for the teams in the running I still have a problem with the Chiefs, Colts, and Vikings on this list. Colts are a toss up but in the tradition of winning now as the NFL so often likes to do, taking a QB late in the first for the future makes sense because youre already good but a LT or legit HB or addition to your defense with Manning back makes you a contender, Luck sits and collects dust as your team finds out whether Manning sitting out is the only thing wrong with this team or not.


Vikings will stick with Leslie Frasier, theyve proven they stick with failures and Ponder is his man. The Chiefs have Cassell and he is not only paid but both Pioli and Haleys guys. Haley may go but Pioli most likely wont which suggests to me he'd rather take a later round guy to develop like they did in New England than start a new mid term in KC. 


Luck is doomed to be a Seahawk as I see it or a team that is already good but looking to invest in the future with a GM/Owner willing to pay the price to move up (Cowboys, Raiders, Redskins). 



Since: Aug 7, 2010
Posted on: September 20, 2011 4:36 pm
 

Lucky Losers: Take Two

I feel no sense of validation for my views on the Chiefs chances, hopes of winning with Matt Cassel as our starting QB. With Luck as our starter and Cassel as backup all of the doubts would be addressed. I don't care who you are, if you're a Chiefs fan you want Luck as our starter. This is not a three year plan of rebuilding...it's hitting the gates with a QB who's at the level of a starting NFL QB. Now for the present matters that can be addressed. Safety=Donald Washington or Darren Sharper. Let's assume most people think Sharper for, his skill level, his experience, his ability to shore up a weakend area of need. We are 30 Million under the cap again sooo. It could not be a bad thing for Darren Sharper to share with our young secondary if not all, parts of his knowledge of the game within the games. If we can pay Alex Magee we can surely find some ends for a capable coach who still has player skills.We have no depth along the line and maybe let Brian Waters go too soon but now it's time for us to play these linemen we have and if the promise is not there,  there are 31 teams who have names we can start to look at. Cassel will need to be a lot more active than he's been but his future is as a backup QB in the NFL, which isn't a bad gig. There are not a lot of them. We can get a jump on next season by playing these guys this year rather than two or three from now. Coaching is an obvious concern. Can Mr Pioli admit that perhaps the career of Haley  has been rushed a bit, perhaps? It will be painful and there's no way it could be otherwise but we can spread the pain out over the rest of this year and honestly start to see and expect to improve next year by recognizing this year is gone. If we allocate the first pick for Luck we should do the right thing for him and have if not a quality tackle or two in a promising stage of development. There are 31 teams with tackles in addition to next years draft but the practice squad players are cheaper than early round draft picks. There are no allegiances in the NFL.




Since: Aug 7, 2010
Posted on: September 20, 2011 4:32 pm
 

Lucky Losers: Take Two

I feel no sense of validation for my views on the Chiefs chances, hopes of winning with Matt Cassel as our starting QB. With Luck as our starter and Cassel as backup all of the doubts would be addressed. I don't care who you are, if you're a Chiefs fan you want Luck as our starter. This is not a three year plan of rebuilding...it's hitting the gates with a QB who's at the level of a starting NFL QB. Now for the present matters that can be addressed. Safety=Donald Washington or Darren Sharper. Let's assume most people think Sharper for, his skill level, his experience, his ability to shore up a weakend area of need. We are 30 Million under the cap again sooo. It could not be a bad thing for Darren Sharper to share with our young secondary if not all, parts of his knowledge of the game within the games. If we can pay Alex Magee we can surely find some ends for a capable coach who still has player skills.We have no depth along the line and maybe let Brian Waters go too soon but now it's time for us to play these linemen we have and if the promise is not there,  there are 31 teams who have names we can start to look at. Cassel will need to be a lot more active than he's been but his future is as a backup QB in the NFL, which isn't a bad gig. There are not a lot of them. We can get a jump on next season by playing these guys this year rather than two or three from now. Coaching is an obvious concern. Can Mr Pioli admit that perhaps the career of Haley  has been rushed a bit, perhaps? It will be painful and there's no way it could be otherwise but we can spread the pain out over the rest of this year and honestly start to see and expect to improve next year by recognizing this year is gone. If we allocate the first pick for Luck we should do the right thing for him and have if not a quality tackle or two in a promising stage of development. There are 31 teams with tackles in addition to next years draft but the practice squad players are cheaper than early round draft picks. There are no allegiances in the NFL.




Since: Aug 25, 2006
Posted on: September 20, 2011 3:49 pm
 

Lucky Losers: Take Two

I really like Andrew Luck as a player but this whole sweepstakes thing is kind of insane.  Starting to hope he is a bust for the team that drafts him.



Since: Sep 20, 2011
Posted on: September 20, 2011 2:24 pm
 

Lucky Losers: Take Two

This is simply the most entertaining artical going right now... It's got everything an NFL fan could ask for - I'll be looking forward to this every week, all season (BTW: It's so funny because It's so true)



Since: Sep 20, 2011
Posted on: September 20, 2011 1:36 pm
 

Lucky Losers: Take Two

But thankfully for Miami, Cleveland won't be playing a home opener, as their loss against Cincinnati was at home. Solid analysis. 


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