Blog Entry

Bubble Team Pickem: Which of the 5 would you take

Posted on: February 16, 2009 2:58 am
Edited on: February 16, 2009 3:25 pm

I am going to list 5 bubble teams without listing their names. I do not want anyone to look up the teams name and give the teams name away. Instead I want a compelling argument from every reader about which bubble team they would choose and why. For this to be successful everyone must post the bubble team they'd pick and why at the bottom of this blog entry. The best reasoning choices will be used tomorrow.

Team A:
Conference Record: 4-6
RPI: 38
SOS: 6
Best Wins: Siena, Rhode Island, Nebraska
Bad Losses: Baylor
Notable Losses: Washington, Gonzaga, Texas, Kansas
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-7
Last 12: 6-6

Team B:
Conference Record: 7-3
RPI: 39
SOS: 46
Best Wins: Arizona, UTEP, South Florida
Bad Losses: Tulsa, Houston
Notable Losses: Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Boston College, Memphis
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-5
Last 12: 9-3

Team C:
Conference Record: 4-7
RPI: 41
SOS: 12
Best Wins: Wake Forest, Florida State, Boston College
Bad Losses: Maryland, NC State, Virginia Tech
Notable Losses: Ohio State, North Carolina, Duke, Connecticut
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-6
Last 12: 7-5

Team D:
Conference Record: 6-4
RPI: 46
SOS: 106
Best Wins: South Carolina, NC State, Washington
Bad Losses: Georgia
Notable Losses: Florida State, Syracuse, Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-4
Last 12: 8-4

Team E:
Record: 17-9
Conference Record: 7-6
RPI: 50
SOS: 23
Best Wins: Georgetown, UAB, UNLV
Bad Losses: None
Notable Losses: Providence, Xavier, Memphis, Florida State, Villanova, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Marquette
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-7
Last 12: 7-5

DO NOT REVEAL WHO THESE TEAMS ARE. Please just explain which team you would pick as the most worthy bubble team and explain why.

-Daniel Evans

Category: NCAAB

Since: Dec 11, 2008
Posted on: February 18, 2009 11:11 pm

Bubble Team Pickem: Which of the 5 would you take

My first reaction was team E because of the lack of bad losses, the above .500 record in confrence, and the three wins against top 50.  As I looked at it more I like team C.  The only reason to keep team C out is the awful confrence record.  The rest of team C looks great.  The best wins of the bunch.  NC State is a bad but not horrfic loss, maryland can get you if not careful, and VT is a good team and shouldn't be a bad loss.  The top 50 is misleading for team C  because BC is around 50 to 52 depending on the day and could easily be a top 50 team by the end.  If they can get the confrence record up then it is no brainer.

Team A is out because it has no good wins sienna is the best but not great. Losing confrence record and lack of real notable losses suggest that the SOS is inflaced by playing a lot of teams in the bottom of the top 50 and losing.  Team B is out ecause they don't have anything to back up arizona.  If the next best win is UTEP or South florida they can't have any depth of good wins.  Low number of top 50 gives impression of lack of scheduling except for Oklahoma and Memphis.  Team D doesn't have a marque win except perhaps washington and hasn't played anybody.  Every team except D and maybe A played at least one team lickly to make the final four and team A was removed for lack of schedule depth already. 

Final decision let in Team E for now (I just cant get over the confrence record on team C). 

Since: Sep 15, 2006
Posted on: February 18, 2009 1:31 pm

Bubble Team Pickem: Which of the 5 would you take

Wow, I can't believe people are actually considering Team D as the best with their SOS.  Granted, they will have 20 wins by the end of the season, and I hate that criteria that people use, but not all 20 win seasons are alike. 

Also, one other thing I would like to clear up that I pointed out briefly in my post, it seems as if the Best Wins and Bad Losses are purely subjective.  One team gets credit for a Best Win against NC State, yet another team gets credit for that as a Bad Loss.  Virginia Tech as a bad loss is arguably a better team than several of the Best Wins on this list. 

I really like this exercise, it was interesting to see who the teams were after I picked...but next time I'd like to see Home vs Away.  I would be less likely to pick a team that has no good road wins, than a team that has less good wins, but more on the road.

Since: Sep 15, 2006
Posted on: February 18, 2009 1:02 pm

Bubble Team Pickem: Which of the 5 would you take

Wow, this is very interesting.  Just wanted to note this first, there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of correlation between SOS and win pct. vs the RPI Top 50.  Kind of an interesting factoid, anyway, here goes:

Here is my logic in my analysis:  the RPI rankings I would completely ignore.  Since the RPI is not an exact science, the fact that all five teams lie within a 12 team spread, tells me that the RPI doesn't really notice a significant difference between them.  I've always contended that the RPI is a good measuring tool if used correctly.  In other words, a team that is 10 spots higher than another doesn't really mean that are better, but if a team is 30 spots higher, you can with a sufficient amount of confidence say they are better.  Having said that, my next criteria would be SOS.  I don't believe in a tiebreak scenario like this one, that a team that plays an awful schedule should be rewarded for doing so.  While Team D has the most wins, they also have by far the worst schedule (60 positions lower than the next worst on the list).  So Team D is the first one out.  The next four all have fairly or very tough schedules.  Next one out is Team B, for a combination of reasons: they have the next lowest SOS, they're 1-5 vs top 50 RPI teams, they have two bad losses, and they're good wins aren't really that good (Arizona maybe, but not UTEP or South Florida).  Next out is Team A, for similar reasons to Team B, bad record vs RPI top 50, they're good wins really aren't that good, and they're 6-6 in they're last 12, which tells me as the season continues, they don't get any better and got many of their wins earlier in the season.  The only thing Team A has going for them is their SOS.  So for me it comes down to Team C and Team E.  Similar RPI, similar SOS, same record in their last 12.  While Team E has no bad losses, I don't think Team C's losses are really that bad.  For instance, Va Tech is in on most bracketologies I've seen, and South Florida is not even a bubble team, yet Va Tech is considered a Bad Loss for Team C, and South Florida is considered a best win for Team B.  Overall, Team C has some very good wins, much better than Team E, so for that reason and that reason alone, I would take Team C, slightly ahead of Team E.

Since: Jul 1, 2008
Posted on: February 18, 2009 12:44 pm
This comment has been removed.

Post Deleted by Administrator

Since: Dec 25, 2008
Posted on: February 18, 2009 11:09 am

Bubble Team Pickem: Which of the 5 would you take

I think it is very close between team D and team E but i would give the edge to team E beacuse of more rpi top 50 wins, sos, and no bad losses.

Since: Oct 2, 2006
Posted on: February 17, 2009 7:06 pm

Bubble Team Pickem: Which of the 5 would you take

I'll take team B. They appear to be the hottest right now, winning 9 of their last 12, and they have some quality wins. I liked team C's wins, but their conference record was awful and their last 12 was just mediocre, showing they likely already peaked and leveled. I think I know who all of these teams are, except team B.

Since: Dec 1, 2008
Posted on: February 17, 2009 1:57 pm

Bubble Team Pickem: Which of the 5 would you take

In my mind (being able to figure out who all 5 are)  I actually have Teams C, D, and E as in the NCAA.  However, I think ultimately Team E is most deserving...and you forgot to mention they beat Georgetown G-town and at Home, and lost to Providence twice.  That is VERY important in this decision making.  I know you didn't want to let people know which conference, but it does have a big impact.  However, I have it ranked


Team E

Team C

Team D (b/c of weak conference schedule)

Team B (fell off the bubble)

Team A (not a part of the bubble)

Since: Jul 23, 2007
Posted on: February 16, 2009 8:31 pm

Bubble Team Pickem: Which of the 5 would you take

I would have to go with team C beacause they have won some big games like against Wake and against 2 sleeper teams in BC and FSU, Also i think they're only bad loss was to NC State because VT and Maryland are both teams that have a shot at the NCAA tourney. Plus they played one of the toughest schedules in the country and it looks like theyve played a very tough non-conference schedule, they also have a good enough RPI to be a tourney team and they have been playing fairly well the past 12 games.


Team C

Team E

Team D

Team A

Team B

Since: Feb 8, 2009
Posted on: February 16, 2009 8:26 pm

Bubble Team Pickem: Which of the 5 would you take

Although all of the above teams are horrible against the RPI top 50, I say Team C.  They have the best quality wins and losses, and obviously play in a power conference by the look at their wins/losses. 

Since: Nov 29, 2008
Posted on: February 16, 2009 8:22 pm

Bubble Team Pickem: Which of the 5 would you take

It seems like a lot of people are saying Team E, but I just don't see it. Florida State is not that good of a team, and they have 9 losses with a pretty bad conference record. I'm sorry, but no.

Teams A and C have horrible conference records, and they both have some pretty bad losses. They're both out in my mind.

That leaves B and D. B has a better conference record, but D has a better overall record. At this point, I pick D, because Washington is on top of the Pac-10 and they could stay there for a while. That means they have a better win and a better record.

I'm curious as to who these teams are, so you better tell us tomorrow, Dan.

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