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Blog Entry

A Quick Rundown of the Bubble Picture

Posted on: February 20, 2009 11:51 am
Edited on: February 20, 2009 3:26 pm
 

I decided to do a quick rundown of the bubble picture so we could see how many spots are still available. 

KEY:
Locks: Teams that are in the NCAA Tournament for sure, even without an auto bid
Should Be Ins: The next level down from lock status. These teams are pretty sure they are going dancing.
Bubble In/Out Projection: My up to the second projection from my latest bracket, telling you who is in/who is out

Total Locks: 21
Should Be Ins: 4
Total: 25

To figure out how many at large spots are available we will assume that the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac 10 will be won by one of the teams with a "lock status". Then we will add in Conference USA since Memphis hasn't lost a conference game in years. That takes seven of the at large bids we just projected and makes them automatic bids.

25-7=18
34-18=16

There are 16 spots at large spots available for bubble teams right now . I realize that I used 18 spots for bubble teams down below, but keep in mind that the SEC will probably be won by one of the five teams I listed, and that the Horizon & Socon will probably be won by Davidson & Butler.

ACC:
Locks:
4: Duke, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Clemson
Should Be Ins: 1: Florida State
Bubble In Projection: 2: Boston College, Virginia Tech
Bubble Out Projection: 2: Miami FL, Maryland

Atlantic 10:
Locks: 1: Xavier
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 1: Dayton
Bubble Out Projection: 1: Temple

Big East:
Locks:
5: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Villanova
Should Be Ins: 2: West Virginia, Syracuse
Bubble In Projection: 1: Cincinnati
Bubble Out Projection: 3: Providence, Georgetown, Notre Dame

Big Ten:
Locks:
3: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 4: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan
Bubble Out Projection: 1: Northwestern, Penn State

Big 12:
Locks:
3: Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 1: Texas
Bubble Out Projection: 5: Nebraska, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Baylor

Pac 10:
Locks:
3: Washington, UCLA, Arizona State
Should Be Ins: 1: California
Bubble In Projection: 2: Arizona, USC
Bubble Out Projection: 0

SEC:
Locks:
0
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 5: LSU, Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina, Tennesseee
Bubble Out Projection: 1: Mississippi State

Mountain West:
Locks:
0
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 3: BYU, San Diego State, Utah
Bubble Out Projection: 2: New Mexico, UNLV

Others:
Locks:
2: Gonzaga, Memphis
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 2: Butler, Davidson
Bubble Out Projection: 4: Utah State, VCU, Creighton, UAB

 

Category: NCAAB
Tags: Bubble Watch
 
Comments

Since: Feb 8, 2009
Posted on: February 20, 2009 11:25 pm
 

A Quick Rundown of the Bubble Picture

I think you should put LSU on the should be ins or a lock for the sec.




Since: Jan 3, 2008
Posted on: February 20, 2009 3:27 pm
 

A Quick Rundown of the Bubble Picture

You completely left the Mountain West out of this equation. The Mountain West will get at-least 2 at-large bids (for a total of 3 bids, maybe a 4th).

My dearest apologies to the Mountain West. I meant no disrespect, just wrote this too quick and forgot it completely. I meant to add it in under others but forgot to. I gave it it's own category Tongue out




Since: Feb 4, 2008
Posted on: February 20, 2009 1:28 pm
 

A Quick Rundown of the Bubble Picture

I would say Ohio State and Minnesota are "should be in's".  Of course its your criteria so I understand you just set your bar a little higher than me.  Good to see the Boilers locked it up according to you and most other analysts.




Since: Mar 4, 2008
Posted on: February 20, 2009 12:31 pm
 

A Quick Rundown of the Bubble Picture

You completely left the Mountain West out of this equation. The Mountain West will get at-least 2 at-large bids (for a total of 3 bids, maybe a 4th).




Since: Jan 3, 2008
Posted on: February 20, 2009 12:23 pm
 

A Quick Rundown of the Bubble Picture

I overlooked Penn State somehow. I know how good they are, and I have them as one of the last teams out of my bracket so I'm not sure how that happened. Thanks for pointing it out. Sorry about that.




Since: Feb 19, 2007
Posted on: February 20, 2009 12:07 pm
 

A Quick Rundown of the Bubble Picture

You should probably mention Penn State in there. They are tied for 4th in the Big10 with wins over each of the top 3 in the conference.

I think the Big10 could certainly get 7 bids, but certainly no less than 6.

In either case, it is a log jam between Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and Penn State for those final 3 or 4 spots.



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