Blog Entry

Up to the second bubble watch

Posted on: February 24, 2009 5:05 pm
 

KEY:
Locks: Teams that are in the NCAA Tournament for sure, even without an auto bid
Should Be Ins: The next level down from lock status. These teams are pretty sure they are going dancing.
Bubble In/Out Projection: My up to the second projection from my latest bracket, telling you who is in/who is out

Total Locks: 21
Should Be Ins: 4
Total: 25

To figure out how many at large spots are available we will assume that the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac 10 will be won by one of the teams with a "lock status". Then we will add in Conference USA since Memphis hasn't lost a conference game in years. That takes seven of the at large bids we just projected and makes them automatic bids.

25-7=18
34-18=16

There are 16 spots at large spots available for bubble teams right now . I realize that I used 21 spots for bubble teams down below, but keep in mind that the SEC will probably be won by one of the five teams I listed, and that the Horizon & Socon will probably be won by Davidson & Butler.

ACC:
Locks:
4: Duke, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Clemson
Should Be Ins: 1: Florida State
Bubble In Projection: 3: Boston College, Maryland, Miami FL
Bubble Out Projection: 1: Virginia Tech

Atlantic 10:
Locks: 1: Xavier
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 1: Dayton
Bubble Out Projection: 1: Temple

Big East:
Locks:
5: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Villanova
Should Be Ins: 2: West Virginia, Syracuse
Bubble In Projection: 0
Bubble Out Projection: 4: Providence, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Cincinnati

Big Ten:
Locks:
3: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 4: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Penn State
Bubble Out Projection: 1: Northwestern, Michigan

Big 12:
Locks:
3: Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 2: Texas, Oklahoma State
Bubble Out Projection: 5: Nebraska, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Baylor

Pac 10:
Locks:
3: Washington, UCLA, Arizona State
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 2: Arizona, California
Bubble Out Projection: 1: USC

SEC:
Locks:
0
Should Be Ins: 1: LSU
Bubble In Projection: 4: Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina, Tennesseee
Bubble Out Projection: 0

Mountain West:
Locks:
0
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 3: BYU , Utah, UNLV
Bubble Out Projection: 2: New Mexico, San Diego State

Others:
Locks:
2: Gonzaga, Memphis
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 2: Butler, Davidson
Bubble Out Projection: 4: Utah State, VCU, Creighton, UAB

 

Category: NCAAB
Tags: Bubble Watch
 
Comments

Since: Jan 15, 2009
Posted on: February 25, 2009 4:13 pm
 

Up to the second bubble watch

Im a 'Cane fan, and I love how people have us on the good side of the bubble right now, but I think they're nuts. Unless the rest of the bubble field is that weak, or unless the powers that be are sure we will win out. Otherwise, UM is 5-8 in the ACC with only a sweep over BC, a Wake Forest crush, a Rupp Arena win in December, and a couple of close losses to Duke and UNC to brag about. Beside, the 'Canes have not shown the consistency this year that would indicate that they will win 3 in a row. I guess people like our SOS and RPI. It would be nice to see Jack McClinton in the tournament again. He could be an ex-factor in a bracket. We'll see. But there is a lot more work to do.




Since: Nov 20, 2006
Posted on: February 25, 2009 10:56 am
 

Up to the second bubble watch


Creighton will have a 27 win season and peaking at the right time..........They are no doubt a LOCK for the BIG DANCE




Since: Feb 24, 2009
Posted on: February 25, 2009 9:23 am
 

Up to the second bubble watch

 

ythis is a great list really enjoy and appreciate this list. keep posting guys.

 

 

Kyra

http://www.universityloveconnection

.com




Since: Dec 8, 2008
Posted on: February 25, 2009 1:58 am
 

Up to the second bubble watch

Sorry, but I don't see how that works. 5-11 vs RPI top 100? RPI 77? SOS 43? Not good enough to be in the tournament if you ask me.




Since: Mar 4, 2008
Posted on: February 25, 2009 1:06 am
 

Up to the second bubble watch

Dan,

What do Utah and BYU have to do to get in the "should be in" column? Both are looking pretty good (assuming Utah beats UNLV).



willardjfilmore
Since: Feb 25, 2008
Posted on: February 24, 2009 10:14 pm
This comment has been removed.

Post Deleted by Administrator




Since: Jan 1, 2007
Posted on: February 24, 2009 9:03 pm
 

Up to the second bubble watch

Big East:
Locks:
5: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Villanova
Should Be Ins: 2: West Virginia, Syracuse
Bubble In Projection: 0
Bubble Out Projection: 4: Providence, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Cincinnati

With a win tonight, against a top-tier team, playing in arguably the best conference in the nation. Providence is deffinitely a "bubble IN team". And don't be surprised to see Georgetown get some love come selection time.




Since: Dec 20, 2006
Posted on: February 24, 2009 8:44 pm
 

Up to the second bubble watch


A team that lost to Harvard and Saint Louis is a lock?
No, I didn't say that. I said that at the least, knowing what we know now, that they "should be in"; that gives them a likely status. I never used nor did I imply the word "lock."

I agree that the losses to Harvard (a letdown after the UNC game) and an OOC game against an opponent I can't remember when they played last were unfortunate. But no way detrimental. Kentucky got into last year's tournament with 18 wins and a loss to Gardner Webb (albeit as an 11 seed). BC, as a contender for last year's ACC title, deserves no less consideration.




Since: Aug 29, 2006
Posted on: February 24, 2009 7:20 pm
 

Up to the second bubble watch

I am curious to hear your logic behind putting the following teams in:

Maryland- Yes, that comeback win over North Carolina was VERY impressive, and the Terrapins do have some nice wins (Michigan State, Michigan, split with Miami), but they also have some pretty bad losses. They were blown out by 41 at Duke, 27 at Georgetown, 30 at Clemson, and 22 against Gonzaga. Throw in a HOME loss to Morgan State, an I think Maryland finds itself on the outside looking in at this point. Still, another nice win or two (a win tomorrow against Duke would probably clinch a berth for the Terps) should seal the deal, and they will get two big opportunities (the game against Duke and then Wake Forest on March 3rd).

Oklahoma State- I'm sorry, but I just do not understand why everyone is penciling the Cowboys in. They haven't beaten a single NCAA Tournament worthy opponent. Their two best wins are over Texas A&M and Baylor, two squads that should not even be considered bubble teams anymore. Oklahoma State was also blown out (or at least handily beaten) by the good majority of tournament teams (lost by 15 to Michigan State, 12 to Gonzaga, 18 to Washington, 11 to Kansas, 25 to Texas, and you can even throw in a 12-point loss in its second meeting with A&M). I would put Kansas State in before the Cowboys; at least the Wildcats are above .500 in conference play and own wins against Missouri and Texas.

Florida- Yes, they have a fairly gaudy 21-6 record overall, but how many of those victories can you actually look at and say, "Wow, that was a good win?" They have only two signature wins, those two being over Washington and South Carolina, and neither is that impressive. The Gators just lost to another bubble team in the same conference in Kentucky and also gave Georgia its first SEC win of the season. Florida's resumé just isn't very good.

BYU- The Cougars are the Mountain West version of Florida: solid record, but not much substance to it. Their best wins came against Utah State and San Diego State. Outside of that, BYU's resumé is pretty bland. It was swept by UNLV and lost its first meeting with Utah. The Cougars will either have to win their conference tournament or win their final four games and at least have a good showing in it in order to go dancing, in my opinion.

 

Other than that, I pretty much agree with everything else.




Since: Jan 3, 2008
Posted on: February 24, 2009 7:09 pm
 

Up to the second bubble watch

What if Syracuse loses to St. John's tonight or if Providence wins?  Obviously, the cumulative results of all of these games will yield a different result than looking at each one individually.  I was just curious / wondering if any of these teams will shift lines strictly based on their performance tonight.

If Providence wins its going to be hard to deny the Friars a tournament bid at this point. If Syracuse loses their bid is looking more in doubt, but I still think the Orange os in decent shape with the bubble picture as weak as it looks.



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