I finally found some logos I like and amazingly in the same day I found time to start my bubble watch! This will be updated daily as the rest of the season plays out. On Saturday there are some monster bubble games including Georgetown-Villanova, Notre Dame-Connecticut, and Arizona-Washington where the Hoyas, Fighting Irish, and Wildcats fight for their bubble lives.
Which bubble teams can we really count on down the stretch?
It looked like Arizona was one of those teams before they fell to Washington State on Thursday night. Virginia Tech took advantage of a monster game against Clemson that added another large win to their profile. And UAB left a huge game against Memphis on the floor when their leading scorer Robert Vaden went 0-17 from the field.
That ladies and gentlemen leaves us with one very crazy bubble. Let's break it down mathematically.
At Large Spots: 34
Locks (minus teams projected to win conference tournament): 25-7=18
At Large Spots Remaining: 34-18=16
My math shows that I am projecting that 16 at large spots remain .
I have 38 teams listed on the bubble below to fight for those spots. If your team isn't on the list below they probably need to win their conference tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament, but it is possible that a few teams can still win their way onto the bubble.
Here's today's bubble watch:
Florida State (21-7, 8-5): The Seminoles are in rare position for a bubble team, because they don't need quality wins. Instead they really just need wins to add to their profile. The closing stretch isn't easy but the Seminoles do have three chances to add a nice win to their already impressive resume before the ACC Tournament starts.
Remaning Schedule: Clemson, Duke, Virginia Tech
Nice Wins: Florida, California, Clemson, Maryland, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, Cincinnati
Bad Losses: Northwestern
Boston College (20-9, 8-6): The Eagles have wins over Duke, Wake Forest, and North Carolina this season so it's going to be hard for the selection committee to leave Boston College out of the Big Dance. The last two are very winnable so a 10- 6 finish in conference play is very likely.
Remaning Schedule: N. C. State, Georgia Tech
Nice Wins: UAB, Duke, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia Tech
Bad Losses: St. Louis, Harvard
Virginia Tech (17-10, 7-6): The Hokies have wins over Clemson & Wake Forest, but they haven't helped themselves lately outside of their road win over the Tigers. Before the win the Hokies had lost three straight games and had faded from safe territory to very bad shape.
Remaning Schedule: Duke, North Carolina, Florida State
Nice Wins: Boston College, Wake Forest, Clemson
Bad Losses: Georgia, Seton Hall
Maryland (17-10, 6-7): The Terps win over North Carolina was shocking, mainly because they had been blown out by good competition in most meetings this year. The victory tremendously helped Maryland because it brought wins they had early in the year over both Michigan and Michigan State back into the fray.
Remaning Schedule: N. C. State, Wake Forest, Virginia
Nice Wins: Michigan State, Michigan, North Carolina, Miami (FL)
Bad Losses: Morgan State
Miami FL (17-10, 6-8): The Hurricanes have played a lot of good teams this season, including Connecticut and Kentucky out of conference. The key is that their computer numbers are fantastic and they have two very winnable games remaining on their schedule against Georgia Tech & NC State.
Remaning Schedule: Georgia Tech, N. C. State
Nice Wins: Kentucky, Boston College, Maryland, Wake Forest, Boston College
Bad Losses: N. C. State
Providence (17-11, 9-7): The Friars were really a forgotten bubble team before their huge win over #1 Pittsburgh on Wednesday night. Now the entire college basketball world is in shock and Providence is the talk of the bubble world. If Providence beats Rutgers (very likely) then they will have 10 Big East wins. That's important.
Remaining Schedule: Rutgers, Villanova
Nice Wins: Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Cincinnati (2),
Bad Losses: Northeastern, Baylor
Syracuse (20-8, 8-7): Orange fans are starting to feel uneasy after missing the NCAA Tiurnament the last two seasons, but let me do some re-assuring for just a second. I don't see how Syracuse can miss the Big Dance at this point unless they lose out. This is mainly for precausionary reasons.
Remaning Schedule: Cincinnati, Rutgers, Marquette
Nice Wins: Memphis, West Virginia, Kansas, Florida, Notre Dame
Bad Losses: Cleveland State,
West Virginia (19-9, 8-7): The Mountaineers great computer numbers have them within range to capture an at large bid (just like Syracuse). West Virginia's loss to Cincinnati on Thursday night wasn't exactly what they needed, but it didn't hurt them too bad just yet. Two of the last three are very winnable.
Remaning Schedule: South Florida, DePaul, Louisville
Nice Wins: Providence, Notre Dame, Ohio State
Bad Losses: None (did lose to Davidson & Kentucky though)
Cincinnati (18-10, 8-7): The Bearcats are looking for that gigantic win that pushes a resume over the top (like Providence over Pittsburgh). Beating West Virginia was nice but it wasn't the kind of win that gets you into the NCAA Tournament. Beating Syracuse on Sunday would probably do the trick.
Remaning Schedule: Syracuse, South Florida, Seton Hall
Nice Wins: UAB, UNLV, West Virginia, Georgetown
Bad Losses: None
Notre Dame (16-11, 7-8): The Fighting Irish have somehow survived their seven game losing streak. Since then they have wins over Louisville and Providence that have really turned their season around. The closing stretch isn't easy but a win over Connecticut on Saturday could mean a dance ticket in March.
Remaning Schedule: Connecticut, Villanova, St. Johns
Nice Wins: Providence, Louisville, Georgetown, Texas
Bad Losses: St. Johns
Georgetown (14-12, 5-10): The Hoyas are only on the bubble because of their great RPI and the fact that they've played the nation's hardest schedule. Still if Georgetown can knock off Villanova on Saturday then the final two games are very winnable. Is it possible that an 8-10 Big East record and a win in the Big East tournament could be enough?
Remaining Schedule: Villanova, St. Johns, DePaul
Nice Wins: Syracuse, Providence, Maryland, Memphis
Bad Losses: Seton Hall
Ohio State (18-8, 8-7): The Buckeyes appeared ahead back to the NCAA Tournament before a three game losing streak put them back on the bubble. Ohio State is still in really good shape at this point, especially after knocking off fellow bubbler Penn State in Columbus earlier this week.
Remaning Schedule: Purdue, Iowa, Northwestern
Nice Wins: Penn State, Michigan, Purdue, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Butler
Bad Losses: Northwestern
Penn State (19-9, 8-7); The Nittany Lions season is one of streaks. They win a few in a row and always follow up a winning week with a losing week (or two). With Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa left it's time to start wondering whether 10 Big Ten wins would be enough. In most years it is, and this year it will look good come Selection Sunday.
Remaining Schedule: Indiana, Illinois, Iowa
Nice Wins: Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan
Bad Losses: Rhode Island
Wisconsin (17-10, 8-7): Wisconsin's resume reminds me a lot of Notre Dame's resume (except they lost six straight games compared to seven), but the Badgers have much better computer numbers. Before losing to Michigan State the Badgers have won five straight games to get back into relatively safe territory.
Remaning Schedule: Michigan, Minnesota, Indiana
Nice Wins: Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Virginia Tech
Bad Losses: Iowa
Minnesota (20-8, 8-8): The Golden Gophers appeared destined for an at large bid early in the season after a 18-3 start to the season that included a win over Louisville. Since then the Gophers are 2-5 with losses to Penn State & Michigan included. The last two aren't easy but winning at least one is very necessary.
Remaining Schedule: Wisconsin, Michigan
Nice Wins: Louisville, Wisconsin, Penn State, Ohio State
Bad Losses: Northwestern
Michigan (18-11, 8-8): The Wolverines are up and down as evident by their wins over Duke & UCLA and losses to Maryland & Iowa. Still, how many teams have ever been left out of the NCAA Tournament when having wins over Duke and UCLA in the same season? I'm guessing it's a short list. Nine Big Ten wins might be enough.
Remaining Schedule: Wisconsin, Minnesota
Nice Wins: Purdue, Minnesota, Duke, UCLA, Illinois
Bad Losses: Iowa
Kansas State (19-9, 7-6): With three very winnable games remaining its not impossible for the Wildcats to get to 10 Big 12 wins. Their game with Nebraska is probably a bubble elimination game, as is their game with Oklahoma State right after that. The problem for Kansas State is they did nothing outside of the Big 12.
Remaining Schedule: Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Colorado
Nice Wins: Texas
Bad Losses: Baylor, Nebraska, Oregon, Iowa
Oklahoma State (18-9, 7-6): The Cowboys computer numbers are pretty high for a team that hasn't really defeated any NCAA Tournament bound teams. Four straight wins have revived their bubble hopes. Their three final games--Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma--will make or break their season.
Remaning Schedule : Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma
Nice Wins: Siena, Nebraska, Texas A&M
Bad Losses: Texas A&M, Baylor
Texas A&M (20-8, 6-7): The buzzer beating win over Nebraska knocks the Cornhuskers off of this list for now and revives the Aggies small at large hopes. Games against Iowa State and Colorado are very winnable before a potential game for their season against conference giant Missouri.
Remaining Schedule : Iowa State, Colorado, Missouri
Nice Wins: Nebraska, Oklahoma State, LSU
Bad Losses: Baylor, Kansas State
California (21-7, 10-5): The Golden Bears are pretty much locked in at this point. The only reason they aren't under my locks section is because I'm not sure the committee would take a California team that goes 10-8 in conference play and finishes up with a loss in the Pac 10 Tournament. At this point they are in great shape though.
Remaining Schedule : UCLA, Arizona, Arizona State
Nice Wins: Washington (twice), Arizona, Utah, UNLV
Bad Losses: Oregon State (2)
Arizona (18-10, 8-7): The Wildcats appeared on their way back into the NCAA Tournament before losing to Washington State on Thursday night. Arizona had won seven straight games before dropping back to back games to Arizona State and Wazzou. Winning two of three down the stretch will help their cause.
Remaining Schedule : Washington, California, Stanford
Nice Wins: UCLA, Washington, Gonzaga, San Diego State, Kansas
Bad Losses: None (did lose to USC though)
USC (16-11, 7-8): The Trojans have been very inconsistent, but luckily the last three are very winnable against Stanford, Oregon, and Oregon State. The problem is that they have a lot of bad losses-Oregon State, Seton Hall included--to match their big wins over California, Arizona, and Arizona State.
Remaining Schedule : Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State
Nice Wins: California, Arizona, Arizona State
Bad Losses: Oregon State, Seton Hall
Tennessee (17-10, 8-5): A lot of people are calling the Volunteers locks, but things are not that simple in Knoxville. Games against Florida and South Carolina won't be easy with at large bids on the line. It's very possible that 9 SEC wins could be enough as long as they don't lose early in the SEC Tournament.
Remaining Schedule : Florida, South Carolina, Alabama
Nice Wins: Siena, Georgetown, South Carolina, Florida
Bad Losses: Auburn, Mississippi (also lost to Kentucky twice)
South Carolina (20-6, 9-4): The Gamecocks monster win over Kentucky on Wednesday night was extremely large for their NCAA Tournament hopes. South Carolina swept Kentucky and has a win over Florida at the buzzer. Games against Vanderbilt and Georgia make 11 SEC wins a very distinct possibility.
Remaining Schedule : Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia
Nice Wins: Florida, Kentucky (2)
Bad Losses: Mississippi State, College of Charleston
Florida (21-7, 8-5): The Gators have feasted on a soft out of conference schedule and aside from beating Washington & South Carolina they have struggled to beat good teams. Florida missed chances to knock off both Syracuse, Kentucky, and LSU. Their remaining games against Tennesee and Kentucky are huge.
Remaining Schedule : Tennessee, Mississippi State, Kentucky
Nice Wins: Washington, South Carolina
Bad Losses: Georgia
Kentucky (19-9, 8-5): Kentucky's loss to South Carolina made their remaining games even more important. A loss to red hot LSU on Saturday would send them to 8-6 in the SEC with games against very beatable Georgia and SEC rival Florida remaining on the schedule.
Remaining Schedule: LSU, Georgia, Florida
Nice Wins: Tennessee (2), Florida
Bad Losses: Mississippi State, Mississippi
BYU (21-6, 9-4): Other than Utah (which appears locked in) the Cougars appear to be in the best shape of the Mountain West bubble teams to claim an at large bid. A win over those same Utes on Saturday will pretty much lock the Cougars in, barring a horrendous three game losing streak to end the season.
Remain ing Schedule: Utah, Wyoming, Air Force
Nice Wins: San Diego State
Bad Losses: None
New Mexico (18-10, 9-4): Somehow the Lobos keep getting forgotten in all of this bubble talk although they are in a tie for second place in the conference. Two of their final three games are extremely winnable, and the other game is against Utah. A win there could really solidify their at large profile.
Remaining Schedule: Colorado State, Utah, Wyoming
Nice Wins: BYU, UNLV
Bad Losses: UCF, Texas Tech, UTEP
San Diego State (18-8, 9-5): If San Diego State wins their next two (TCU, Colorado State) then the Aztecs will play UNLV in a potential bubble elimination game right before the beginning of the Mountain West Tournament. Winning all three of their remaining games would get them to 12 conference wins. Is that enough? We shall see.
Remaining Schedule : TCU, Colorado State, UNLV
Nice Wins: UNLV, Utah
Bad Losses: Wyoming
UNLV (20-8, 8-6): The Rebels have been one of the most disappointing teams in the country thsi year, but all is not lost. With four teams in the Mountain West with a chance to get to 10 conference wins (the maximum for UNLV) the Rebels probably need to win their remaning two and then at least one in the MWC Tournament to feel safe.
Remaining Schedule : Air Force, San Diego State
Nice Wins: Louisville, Utah, BYU, New Mexico
Bad Losses: Colorado State, Wyoming, TCU
Dayton (23-5, 9-4): The Flyers were in great shape before dropping back to back games to Saint Louis and Rhode Island. Now they are back on the bubble and trying to secure a NCAA Tournament bid by winning three in a row, which would also include a sweep of rival Dayton.
Remaining Schedule : Temple, Xavier, Duquense
Nice Wins: Xavier, Marquette
Bad Losses: St. Louis, Charlotte, Massachusetts
Rhode Island (21-8, 10-4): The Rams just keep staying alive. Since starting the season 12-7 Rhode Island has won 9 of 10 games. The next two are very winnable (Duquense, Massachsetts) before the Atlantic Ten tournament. If they win their next two games they will avoid Xavier until the finals.
Remaining Schedule : Duquense, Massachusetts
Nice Wins: Dayton, Temple, Penn State
Bad Losses: Saint Josephs
Temple (17-10, 9-4): The Owls can thank their computer numbers for remaining on the bubble this long. Beating Dayton on Saturday would make a serious statement, and following that up with two straight wins would give the Owls 20 wins and a 12-4 conference record. Do not sleep on Temple.
Remaining Schedule : Dayton, Saint Josephs, George Washington
Nice Wins: Tennessee, Penn State
Bad Losses: Buffalo, Miami (OH), La Salle
UAB (19-9, 9-4): The Blazers really need to knock off Memphis to have any chance to get into the field, but that fell apart. They do have one more chance to knock off the Tigers, but it will likely be in the Conference USA Tournament final unless they fall to the #4 seed in the standings.
Remaining Schedule : East Carolina, UTEP, Marshall
Nice Wins: Arizona
Bad Losses: Tulsa, Houston
Siena (22-7, 15-2): For all intensive purposes losing to Niagara on Friday night pretty much ruined the Saints at large hopes, along with losing to Rider earlier this week. Siena should plan on winning the MAAC Tournament to claim a NCAA Tournament bid, unless a lot of other bubble teams start to fall apart.
Remaining Schedule : Canisius
Nice Wins: Northern Iowa
Bad Losses: Rider, Niagara
Creighton (24-6, 13-4): The Blue Jays are making a huge run towards the Big Dance. After a 5-4 start in conference play Creighton has now taken the lead in the Missouri Valley by winning nine straight games. Beating George Mason in the bracketbuster game was pretty much the capping of a nice profile. If Creighton loses in the MVC final they have a compelling case for an at large.
Remaining Schedule : Illinois State
Nice Wins: George Mason, Northern Iowa, Dayton
Bad Losses: Illinois State, Drake
Davidson (23-6, 16-2): The Wildcats knew their game with Butler was probably for their at large hope lives, and they lost. Grabbing an at large bid would mean the Wildcats had lost three Socon games this year, which is not really an achievement the way they've run through the conference in past years. Davidson better win the Socon.
Remaining Schedule : Georgia Southern, Elon
Nice Wins: West Virginia
Bad Losses: The Citadel, College of Charleston
St. Marys (23-5, 9-4): The Gaels case is going to be one of the more interesting on Selection Sunday. Will the committee cut them some slack because they lost Patty Mills in a game against Gonzaga where they were in control at halftime? Or will three losses (including one in the WCC Tourney) to the Zags be the doom of them?
Remaining Schedule : Loyola-Marymount
Nice Wins: Utah State, Portland
Bad Losses: Santa Clara, UTEP
Utah State (26-3, 13-1): The Aggies loss to St. Marys in the bracketbusters really killed their at large mojo, although it's hard to see the committee leaving out a four loss team. The key is that Utah State's schedule is very weak. Other than an 18 games winning streak (when they did beat Utah) their overall resume is pretty weak.
Remaining Schedule: Nevada, San Jose State
Nice Wins: Utah
Bad Losses: Boise State