Blog Entry

Bracketology Questions with 24 hours to go

Posted on: March 14, 2009 5:37 pm
 

Selection Sunday is almost here (the actual selection process is about 24 hours away) and it's time to look at some of the major questions going through this bracketologist's mind. My new bracketology will be out soon! My final bracket should be out by 2 o' clock tomorrow afternoon!


1) Who will get the #1 seeds?

North Carolina
Pros: RPI #3, Wins over Michigan State, Florida State, Duke (twice), #20 SOS, Acc reg. season champs
Cons: Losses to Boston College & Maryland (best I could come up with)

Pittsburgh
Pros: RPI #1, SOS #7, Wins over Connecticut (twice), Florida State, Syracuse, West Virginia
Cons: Lost two of last five games (WVU, Providence)

Connecticut
Pros: RPI #6, Wins over West Virginia, Villanova, Louisville, Syracuse
Cons: Lost last two games and three of last five (SYR, PITT, PITT)

Louisville
Pros: #7 RPI, Big East regular season champions, In Big East tournament championship, 9 straight W's
Cons: Losses to Western Kentucky, Minnesota, UNLV

Memphis
Pros: #8 RPI, 30 Wins, 24 straight wins, Conf USA reg. season & tournament champions
Cons: Plays in Conference USA, Best wins are Gonzaga & Tennessee

Duke
Pros: #2 RPI, #2 SOS, Wins over Wake Forest, Florida State (twice), Xavier
Cons: Has not won against UNC, Losses to Boston College & Michigan

Michigan State
Pros: #4 RPI, #6 SOS, Big Ten regular season champs
Cons: Lost in Big Ten semifinals, Lost to UNC, Penn State, Maryland

2) How many teams will the SEC get?

The disaster scenario has happened for the SEC. Not only did South Carolina and Florida lose on Friday but Auburn also lost to Tennessee on Saturday. LSU has gone from a potential top 5 seed to a questionable top 6 seed after losing to Mississippi State. Both Tennessee & LSU are in, but if Tennessee knocks off Mississippi State then the SEC could be left with only TWO bids barring a Selection Sunday miracle.

3) Who gets the final two seed?

I think it's pretty fair to claim that North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Louisville, Memphis, Duke, and Michigan State are going to be on the top two seed lines (or top line) tomorrow. The question is whether the committee gives Kansas or Oklahoma the final two seed. I have OU as my final two seed at this point, but a lot of bracketologists (Lunardi included) disagree with me. The Jayhawks have lost two of three but did knock off Oklahoma in their only regular season meeting. The key will be how much the committee weighs in Blake Griffin missing the game.

4) St. Mary's or Penn State?

I hate to just eliminate a lot of bubble teams but this appears to be the major question most of us bracketologists are asking at this second. I have Penn State in while most bracketologists have St. Mary's in. How much of a factor will the committee rule that Patty Mills injury played in St. Mary's losses?

St. Marys:
Pros: 18-2 with Patty Mills in the lineup
Cons: Best win is Utah State, Lost four games without Mills, Wasn't competitive against Gonzaga in WCC Final

Penn State:
Pros: Wins over Michigan State, Illinois (twice), Purdue, Michigan
Cons: Lost to Iowa, Wasn't impressive in final loss in Big Ten Semifinals to Purdue

5) Florida State & Syracuse, what does hot play get you?

Right now I have both teams as four seeds in my latest bracket (not released yet), but it's a tough line to draw. Both have great computer numbers and although hot play is important you don't want to over reward a team. Both teams are playing in championship games, I think both end up as four seeds when it's all said and done.

6) How do you sort out the Big Ten mess?

I've already touched a little bit on Penn State above (question #4), but how do you sort this mess out? I was actually listening to the Michigan State-Ohio State game when I realized that this is a weird year in college basketball. I don't want to take anything away from the Big Ten but by beating up on each other the conference is probably going to get eight teams into the field. Check this out.

RPIs:
Michigan State 4
Illinois 18
Purdue 30
Ohio State 35
Minnesota 40
Michigan 42
Wisconsin 44
Penn State 68

I don't want to be the bearer of bad news but do not be surprised if there's a Big Ten surprise on Selection Sunday. I don't see how any of the top seven can be left out due to the weakness of the bubble, but outside of the top three teams there is major mediocrity going on.

7) Utah State, what happens if they lose?

There has NEVER been a team left out of the NCAA Tournament with 27 wins or more. Utah State has 28 but most of them are against Subpar competition. If the Aggies lose tonight are they still in? I think so, mainly just due to the unwritten rule based on win total.

8) Statement: Siena's seed could be a major surprise

Just know this one. Siena has the nation's #19 RPI and has the MAAC regular season championship & tournament championship under its belt, as well as a pretty nice run in the NCAA Tournament from last season. Now the question is how well the Saints will be seeded tomorrow. For those wondering if they would've gotten into the field with a loss in the MAAC Championship the answer is yes. The lowest RPI ever left out of the NCAA Tournament was Missouri State. Do not be surprised if Siena jumps all the way up to the 8 seed line tomorrow.

9) Auburn's winning streak before their loss today will mean what?

I still think it means NIT. Auburn flew under the radar all season long, didn't do anything extraordinary and didn't play a team better than Virginia out of conference. Expect Auburn to be one of the ten SEC teams sitting at home, barring an unforseen decision by the comitteee.

10) Sunday's Surprise will be?

By this I am referring to the fact that there is ALWAYS something we don't see coming that happens when the brackets are announced. Either a major snub, a major surprise team is in, or a team is seeded way too high or way too low. Keep your eye on a team like Clemson. I think they could be seeded way lower than what people think.

Category: NCAAB
Comments

Since: Feb 19, 2007
Posted on: March 15, 2009 8:33 am
 

Bracketology Questions with 24 hours to go

Dan, my #1 seeds so far are Louisville, UNC, UConn and Pitt but do you think Duke has a case if they beat FSU?

 




Since: Mar 12, 2007
Posted on: March 15, 2009 2:30 am
 

Bracketology Questions with 24 hours to go

You don't get in just for playing good teams.  You have to beat them.  And beating one good team out of three doesn't get you in the tournament.

Just look at Virginia Tech.  Anyone who has played them or watched them play knows that they are a tournament team.  However, on paper they are something like 2-9 against the Top 50.  They ae a hard-luck team.  Most of those 9 losses are by 3 points or less (with 3 being on buzzer beaters - including one half-court shot by Xavier), and most of those losses are to teams like Duke, UNC, etc.  They have shown all year that they can play at anybody's level, but they will still be left out of the tournament.

So, no, Florida doesn't get in based on one decent out-of-conference win.

 




Since: Jan 3, 2008
Posted on: March 15, 2009 2:29 am
 

Bracketology Questions with 24 hours to go

Beer honestly I'm just going with my gut. I really think USC knocked Arizona out of the field. Before USC's win I had moved Arizona in. Now they are the last team out in my field.

 




Since: Feb 11, 2009
Posted on: March 15, 2009 2:14 am
 

Bracketology Questions with 24 hours to go

Even after today's lost is MSU without a doubt a lock for a 2 seed?




Since: Jan 3, 2008
Posted on: March 15, 2009 1:55 am
 

Bracketology Questions with 24 hours to go

I think Maryland is in.




Since: Mar 11, 2009
Posted on: March 15, 2009 12:52 am
 

Maryland

 

 Dantheman-

I know we've had our differences these last couple days, but your post lacks anything on Maryland, does this mean you have them solidly in your latest bracket and not in danger of losing out to St. Mary's or Arizona? Would Mississippi State beating Tennessee have an affect on Maryland? I think they got enough done to be in, but beating Duke would have been a good insurance win, but losing by 6 to a for sure 2 seed is nothing to hang your head about. Is Maryland locked in at 11-12 seed or could they possibly sneak to a 10.




Since: Jan 25, 2008
Posted on: March 14, 2009 10:51 pm
 

Bracketology Questions with 24 hours to go

ZonaCats – Totally agree with you!  Almost everyone has Arizona on the outside looking in.  I’m keeping them in until someone convinces me otherwise.

Dan – Just wondering what gives Creighton, Penn State, or St. Mary’s the edge over Arizona in your mind?  I’m too stubborn to drop the Wildcats from my bracket because I still think their resume is actually quite solid:

Creighton vs. Arizona
RPI: Slight Edge Creighton (41 vs. 57)
SOS: Edge Arizona (32 vs. 112)
Quality Wins: Edge Arizona (By my count, Arizona beat 6 teams better than Dayton – Creighton’s best win)
Bad Losses: Edge Arizona (Arizona’s worst loss was to Stanford.  Creighton lost to Drake, Wichita State, etc.)
Last 10: Edge Creighton (9-1) vs. Arizona (5-5)

Penn State vs. Arizona
RPI: Slight Edge Arizona (57 vs. 67)
SOS: Edge Arizona (32 vs. 87)
Quality Wins: Draw (Top 50 Records: Arizona = 6-10 & Penn State = 6-9)
Bad Losses: Draw (Penn State lost to Iowa)
Last 10: Draw (Penn State also 5-5)
Other: Non-Conference edge to Arizona by a mile (RPI=40, SOS= 96) over Penn State (RPI=123, SOS= 304)

St. Mary’s vs. Arizona
RPI: Slight Edge St. Mary’s (47 vs. 57)
SOS: Edge Arizona (32 vs. 148)
Quality Wins: Edge Arizona (Arizona beat 4 teams better than Utah State.  Both teams beat SDSU)
Bad Losses: Edge Arizona (SMU lost to Portland and Santa Clara (who AZ beat).
Last 10: Edge SMU (7-3)
Other: AZ beat Gonzaga (who beat SMU 3 times)




Since: Feb 18, 2007
Posted on: March 14, 2009 10:09 pm
 

Bracketology Questions with 24 hours to go

Hey I know that on alot of bracketology's that SDSU is on the final four in (maybe out) and Arizona is on the out side of it but SDSU lost today to Utah. So here is my question. Lets say it comes down to these two teams and a couple others to get the final spot in the bracket who gets in between SDSU and Arizona because San diego state made it to their championship but lost ,but arizona beat SDSU head to head but lost in the first round of the P10 tourney to ASU.

 

 




Since: Jan 3, 2008
Posted on: March 14, 2009 7:58 pm
 

Bracketology Questions with 24 hours to go

Hey Dan... with Purdue handling Illinois today do you see them moving into the 4 seed and Illinois dropping to a 6 seed??? 

In my scratch bracket (meaning it will change and it's not posted) I have both as 5s following today's result.




Since: Feb 18, 2007
Posted on: March 14, 2009 7:34 pm
 

Bracketology Questions with 24 hours to go

Hey Dan... with Purdue handling Illinois today do you see them moving into the 4 seed and Illinois dropping to a 6 seed??? Everyone at CBS kept saying Illinois belongs around 7,8/9 seed which is wrong I think. I say they're a 6 seed. Purdue should be a 4 seed, but a 5 seed is the same thing. CBS was also saying Purdue might end up with a 6 seed. How does that make since??? As a Boiler I would rather be a 4 seed (duh) because I don't want to hear how everyone is picking Purdue as their 12 over 5 upset, and I don't want to see VCU in the first round or UCLA in the second either.  



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