Blog Entry

March 1 Bubble Watch: Saint Joes in trouble

Posted on: February 28, 2008 11:56 pm
Edited on: February 29, 2008 10:59 pm

Thursday night's biggest loser: Saint Josephs (terrible loss to Saint Louis)
Thursday night's biggest winner: USC (Great win over Arizona)

Total Locks (26):


Locks (3):

Virginia Tech (17-11, 8-6): Would ten ACC wins be enough? In a normal year it would be, and this year the bubble is weaker than ever. They probably still need at least one ACC Tournament win along with 10 ACC regular season wins.
Remaining Games: Wake Forest (March 4), Clemson (March 9)

Maryland (18-11, 8-6): The Terps would love to get to that same magic number of 10 ACC wins. The remaining schedule gives them a chance to do that. Nice win over Wake Forest on Thursday night.
Remaining Games: Clemson (March 2), Virginia (March 9)

Wake Forest (16-7, 6-7): Wake's non conference schedule does not help at all and a .500 record in the ACC doesn't help either. Wake needs to get to 9-7 in the ACC and they have to win their remaining games to do that.
Remaining Games: Georgia Tech (March 1), Virginia Tech (March 4), N. C. State (March 8)

Miami (19-8, 6-7): Want to know how weird of a year it is for the bubble? Miami could actually finish seventh in the ACC and be the fourth best team in the committee's eyes just based off their tournament resume.
Remaining Games: Virginia (March 1), Boston College (March 5), Florida State (March 8)

Atlantic Ten

Locks (1):

Saint Josephs (17-9, 8-5): Just when it looked like Saint Joes was in great shape and would probably finish 20-10 they lose to Saint Louis and throw their bubble hopes up in the air again.
Remaining Games: Temple (March 2), Xavier (March 6), Dayton (March 8)

Massachusetts (18-9, 7-6): The Minutemen have been up and down the entire season. Ten wins in the Atlantic Ten would certainly help their cause, and it wouldn't hurt to win a few games in the Atlantic Ten Tournament either.
Remaining Games: Richmond (March 1), La Salle (March 5), George Washington (March 8)

Rhode Island (20-9, 6-8): A promising start to the season has not turned out the way it began for the Rams. Since starting 19-3 they are now 20-9. They have lost six of seven.
Remaining Games: La Salle (March 1), Charlotte (March 8)

Dayton (17-9, 5-8): Injuries have all but destroyed the Flyers chances. Since a 14-1 start they are now 17-9; losers of eight of their last eleven games.
Remaining Games: Fordham (March 1), St. Bonaventure (March 5), Saint Josephs (March 8)

Big East

Locks (5):

West Virginia (19-8, 9-6): You would think 10 Big East wins would be enough and I'd say the Mountaineers are one of the few teams on this list feeling pretty good about their chances.
Remaining Games: Connecticut (March 1), Pittsburgh (March 3), St. Johns (March 8)

Villanova (17-10, 7-8): Ok Nova it's now or never to earn a bid. Louisville, South Florida, and Providence are all coming up meaning a big W versus Louisville and taking care of business against the other two would likely be enough.
Remaining Games: Louisville (March 2), South Florida (March 5), Providence (March 8)

Syracuse (17-11, 7-8): Syracuse is in a tough position. They've lost a lot of games to bubble teams (Umass, RIU, and WVU to name a few). They also have lost two in a row and have three tough games remaining to play.
Remaining Games: Pittsburgh (March 1), Seton Hall (March 5), Marquette (March 8)

Seton Hall (17-11, 7-8): Nobody is naming Seton Hall as a serious contender for an at large bid. Considering they've lost 5 of 7 it's easy to see why. The Pirates need a miracle finish to make it.
Remaining Games: St. Johns (March 1), Syracuse (March 5), Rutgers (March 9)

Big Ten

Locks (4):

Ohio State (17-11, 8-7): The Buckeyes are in a MUST situation to win at least two of their next three games against Minnesota, Purdue, and Michigan State. If they don't it is going to be very difficult for them to get an at large bid.
Remaining Games: Minnesota (March 1), Purdue (March 4), Michigan State (March 9)

Big 12

Locks (2):

Kansas State (19-8, 8-5): Since a 17-5 start they have now lost four of five to fall back into trouble. I think they get in with one more Big 12 win, but they might want to win a couple just to be safe.
Remaining Games: Kansas (March 1), Colorado (March 4), Iowa State (March 8)

Texas A&M (21-7, 7-6): Another Big 12 team (like KSU) that appears headed for the NCAA Tournament. Right now though they've lost three of four and have Oklahoma, Baylor, and Kansas left. That's dangerous.
Remaining Games: Oklahoma (March 1), Baylor (March 5), Kansas (March 8)

Baylor (19-8, 7-6): Baylor needs at least a 9-7 record in the Big 12 to feel good about their chances and the schedule looks good. They also might want to win a game or two in the Big 12 Tournament.
Remaining Games: Missouri (March 1), Texas A&M (March 5), Texas Tech (March 8)

Nebraska (17-9, 6-7): The Cornhuskers are playing great basketball now. They've knocked off three potential tournament teams (Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Kansas State) in the past two weeks.
Remaining Games: Oklahoma State (March 1), Texas (March 4), Colorado (March 9)

Oklahoma (18-10, 6-7): That loss to Nebraska was one of the worst I've seen this season for any bubble team. On Selection Sunday that could be the crippling loss for the Sooners.
Remaining Games: Texas A&M (March 1), Oklahoma State (March 5), Missouri (March 8)

Conference USA

Locks: (1):

Houston (21-6, 10-3): The Cougars missed out on their chances against Memphis and they lost their one chances against UAB. They do have a win against Kentucky, but they need a nice Conference USA Tournament run.
Remaining Games: East Carolina (March 1), Central Florida (March 5), UTEP (March 8)

UAB (20-8, 10-3): The Blazers barely lost to Memphis and has a nice win against Houston at home. The Blazers have (like Houston) also knocked off Kentucky.
Remaining Games: Tulane (March 1), Tulsa (March 5), Memphis (March 8)

Missouri Valley

Locks: (1):

Illinois State (21-8, 12-5): I think the Redbirds need to win their one regular season game remaining and then reach at least the Missouri Valley semifinals to be in the conversation deep into Selection Sunday.
Remaining Games: Southern Illinois (March 1)

Southern Illinois (17-12, 11-6): Five straight wins has the Salukis back on the bubble. Can 12 losses really get you into the tournament as an at large in a down year for the MIssouri Valley? Honestly I don't think so.
Remaining Games: Illinois State (March 1)

Creighton (19-9, 9-8): I'm pretty sure the Bluejays loss to Southern Illinois ended any at large hops for Creighton. A 9-8 record in the MVC probably won't get it done, but a run to the MVC championship game might reopen their resume for discussion.
Remaining Games: Bradley (March 1)

Mountain West

Locks: (1):

UNLV (21-6, 10-3): Winning out and getting 13 Mountain West victories will probably be enough for the Rebels. The New Mexico game will be huge (see below for more).
Remaining Games: TCU (March 1), New Mexico (March 4), Utah (March 8)

New Mexico (22-7, 9-5): The loss to BYU hurt their at large hopes badly but a win against UNLV will get them right back into the hunt. Can they get it done?
Remaining Games: UNLV (March 4), Colorado State (March 8)

Pac 10

Locks (3):

USC (18-9, 9-6): It looks like USC will get in for sure now after taking care of Arizona on the road Thursday night, just waiting on one more win to lock them in.
Remaining Games: Arizona State (March 1), California (March 6), Stanford (March 8)

Arizona State (17-10, 7-8): The loss to Washington State doesn't help, it was a great chance to make a statement but still there are some winnable games left down the stretch for the Sun Devils.
Remaining Games: USC (March 1), Oregon (March 6), Oregon State (March 8)

Arizona (17-11, 7-8): The Wildcats have the #1 strength of schedule, meaning a .500 Pac Ten record will get them in the field for sure. The loss to USC doesn't help their cause though.
Remaining Games: UCLA (March 2), Oregon State (March 6), Oregon (March 8)

California (15-11, 6-9): The Bears are close to falling off the bubble. California has three tough games remaining to end the season, so they will either play their way in or out.
Remaining Games: Washington (March 1), USC (March 6), UCLA (March 8)

Oregon (15-12, 6-9): I think the Ducks are done.They have three winninable games left but they might to win all three to still be in contention for an at large going into the Pac 10 tournament.
Remaining Games: Oregon State (March 2), Arizona State (March 6), Arizona (March 8)


Locks: (2):

Kentucky (16-10, 10-3): The Wildcats have played themselves back into the picture. If they can knock off Tennessee on Saturday then they will be back in my bracket.
Remaining Games: Tennessee (March 2), South Carolina (March 5), Florida (March 9)

Florida (21-7, 8-5): The Gators need 10 SEC wins big time consideration. Remaining games against Mississippi State, Tennessee, and Kentucky will either allow them to play themselves in or out.
Remaining Games: Mississippi State (March 1), Tennessee (March 5), Kentucky (March 9)

Mississippi State (19-8, 10-3): Ten SEC wins will generally get it done (Kentucky's case is rare) so I think the Bulldogs get in unless they collapse down the stretch.
Remaining Games: Florida (March 1), Vanderbilt (March 5), LSU (March 8)

Arkansas (18-9, 7-6): The Razorbacks have put themselves in a bad spot with back to back bad losses against Kentucky and Alabama. They are still in decent shape.
Remaining Games: Vanderbilt (March 1), Mississippi (March 4), Auburn (March 8)


Virginia Commonwealth (22-6, 14-3): A lot of bubble teams are hoping the Rams get the CAA automatic bid so they can't steal an at large here.
Remaining Games: William & Mary (March 1)

George Mason (20-9, 12-5): The Patriots loss to Ohio in the bracket buster probably ended their at large hopes but a run to the CAA Final might get them back into the conversation.
Remaining Games: March 1

Kent State (23-5, 11-2): Another bubble team nobody wants to see lose in their conference tournament. They almost assuredly will get an at large after their bracketbuster win.
Remaining Games: Bowling Green (March 1), Miami (OH) (March 4), Akron (March 9)

Davidson (22-6, 19-0): If they lose in their tournament then they would be one of the hardest cases to decide on Selection Sunday.
Remaining Games: Georgia Southern (March 1)
Category: NCAAB
Tags: Bubble Watch

Since: Feb 12, 2008
Posted on: February 29, 2008 6:32 pm

February 29 Bubble Watch: Saint Joes in trouble

I give up Dan.....UK is f'd.

Since: Oct 24, 2006
Posted on: February 29, 2008 2:44 pm

February 29 Bubble Watch: Saint Joes in trouble

A down year for the missouri valley???? The valley was something like 7-2 in their bracket buster games. I feel that three teams will get in from the valley, definitely 2. It's probably going to be Drake and Southern Illinois, with Illinois State the possible third. There's a huge game on saturday to determine who's going to have the second seed for arch madness, that's between Illinois State at Southern Illinois. If Southern Illinois wins that game and makes it to the finals of arch madness, mvc's conference tourney, then they'll definitely be an at large in the tourney. SIU's rpi will be something in the high 20's to mid 30's if that is accomplished. I understand the Saluki's have a high number of losses, but they have one of the toughest schedules in the country. A number of those losses were "good losses" i.e. Indiana, Butler, USC. SIU makes a perfect tourney selection, because they'll have a low rpi, quality wins, good losses, and on a hot streak entering march.

Since: Nov 7, 2006
Posted on: February 29, 2008 12:48 pm
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