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Blog Entry

March 4 Bubble Watch: Pitt sliding farther back

Posted on: March 3, 2008 10:21 pm
Edited on: March 3, 2008 11:23 pm
 
Monday's biggest loser: Pittsburgh
Monday's biggest winner: West Virginia

Total Locks (26):

ACC:

Locks (3):

Virginia Tech (17-11, 8-6): Would ten ACC wins be enough? In a normal year it would be, and this year the bubble is weaker than ever. They probably still need at least one ACC Tournament win along with 10 ACC regular season wins.
Remaining Games: Wake Forest (March 4), Clemson (March 9)

Maryland (18-12, 8-7): The season finale is now a must after losing to Clemson on Sunday.
Remaining Games: Virginia (March 9)

Wake Forest (16-8, 6-8): The loss to Georgia Tech on Saturday likely did Wake Forest in. The best case scenario is that they win both their remaining games and reach the ACC Final. That probably still wouldn't be enough for an at large at this point.
Remaining Games: Virginia Tech (March 4), N. C. State (March 8)

Miami (20-8, 7-7): It wasn't as easy as a lot of people figured it might be for the Canes to beat Virginia at home. The win gets them back to 7-7 in ACC play and helps their chances of an at large slightly.
Remaining Games: Boston College (March 5), Florida State (March 8)


Atlantic Ten

Locks (1):

Saint Josephs (17-10, 8-6): Back to back losses is not what you want (especially versus Saint Louis and Temple) with Xavier coming up next. It looks like March 6 is the season for the Hawks unless they get a miracle !-10 tournament run.
Remaining Games: Xavier (March 6), Dayton (March 8)

Massachusetts (19-9, 8-6): The win over Richmond leaves them in great shape to go 10-6 in A-10 play. That would probably be enough in a conference that has certainly earned two bids this season, unless they lose in the first round of the conference tournament.
Remaining Games: La Salle (March 5), George Washington (March 8)

Rhode Island (21-9, 7-8): A nice bound back win keeps them on the bubble but they are in danger of falling off. I think they have to finish .500 in the conference to have any chance.
Remaining Games: Charlotte (March 8)

Dayton (18-9, 6-8): Injuries have all but destroyed the Flyers chances. Since a 14-1 start they are now 17-10; losers of eight of their last twelve games.
Remaining Games: St. Bonaventure (March 5), Saint Josephs (March 8)


Big East

Locks (5):

Pittsburgh (21-9, 9-8): Although it appears the Panthers are trying to play themselves out of the field as much as everyone else their win over Syracuse put them in great shape to receive a bid. The non competitive loss to West Virginia hurt a lot but only seeding wise, they can lock things up with two more wins.
Remaining Games:
DePaul (March 9)

West Virginia (20-9, 10-7): The Mountaineers need the win over St. Johns to be all but a lock after dismantling Pittsburgh tonight.
Remaining Games: St. Johns (March 8)

Villanova (17-11, 7-9): The Louisville loss didn't help but it didn't sting too badly either because it was expected. Carefully find wins against South Florida and Providence and Nova should be in decent shape entering the Big East Tournament.
Remaining Games: South Florida (March 5), Providence (March 8)

Syracuse (17-12, 7-9): They absolutely blew the game against Pittsburgh and on Selection Sunday it will probably make all the difference. At 7-9 they even now even with Seton Hall in the conference and play them next and Marquette follows to close out their season. It is not looking good for the Orange.
Remaining Games: Seton Hall (March 5), Marquette (March 8)

Seton Hall (17-12, 7-9): Bad loss to St. Johns probably ends their at large hopes completely. To have any chance they need to win their remaining two games and reach the Big East finals.
Remaining Games: Syracuse (March 5), Rutgers (March 9)


Big Ten

Locks (4):

Ohio State (17-12, 8-8): Can you spell N-I-T Buckeyes? That's where that loss to Minnesota has you going, especially with tough games against Purdue and Michigan State left to play.
Remaining Games: Purdue (March 4), Michigan State (March 9)


Big 12

Locks (2):

Kansas State (19-9, 8-6): Since a 17-5 start they have now lost five of six, including losing a rematch with Kansas on Saturday. Thankfully they still have an 8-6 conference record with games against lowly Colorado and Iowa State remaining. Things are still looking up for the Wildcat because of the weak schedule remaining.
Remaining Games: Colorado (March 4), Iowa State (March 8)

Texas A&M (21-8, 7-7): DANGER DANGER. That's what A&M's loss to Oklahoma has us saying. Scoring 37 points in a game and being held to 10 in a half to a team that had been held to 12 in a half in their last game (a blowout loss to Nebraska). How does this happen after such a promising start to the season?
Remaining Games: Baylor (March 5), Kansas (March 8)

Baylor (20-8, 8-6): Baylor is loving Texas A&M's collapse because after Oklahoma's loss to Nebraska on Wednesday they have now passed two teams in the conference in one week. Things are looking up for the Bears at large hopes.
Remaining Games: Texas A&M (March 5), Texas Tech (March 8)

Oklahoma (19-10, 7-7): The Sooners lose to Nebraska after scoring 12 points in the first half....then they only allow Texas A&M 10 in the first half on Saturday. What is this world coming to?
Remaining Games: Oklahoma State (March 5), Missouri (March 8)


Conference USA

Locks: (1):

Houston (21-7, 10-4): The Cougars missed out on their chances against Memphis and they lost their one chances against UAB. They do have a win against Kentucky, but the loss Saturday to East Carolina really hurt their at large hopes.
Remaining Games: Central Florida (March 5), UTEP (March 8)

UAB (21-8, 11-3): If they can beat Tulsa then they get another chance at Memphis in their season finale for a chance to prove they deserve an automatic bid to the dance.
Remaining Games: Tulsa (March 5), Memphis (March 8)


Missouri Valley

Locks: (1):

Illinois State (22-8, 13-5): Well the win over Southern Illinois helps their situation but a run to the MVC finals might also be necessary.
Remaining Games: Regular Season Finished

Southern Illinois (17-13, 11-7): The loss to Illinois State likely ends the Salukis at large hopes and it is too bad. They have a great basketball team, they just started the year very slowly and could not rebound in time. Maybe they can win the MVC Tournament.
Remaining Games: Regular Season Finished

Creighton (20-9, 10-8): The win over Bradley keeps their at large hopes alive but barely after losing to Illinois State earlier in the week. A trip to the MVC Finals might do the trick but that will be tough in a strong conference like the MVC.
Remaining Games: Regular Season Finished


Mountain West

Locks: (1):

UNLV (22-6, 11-3): Winning out and getting 13 Mountain West victories will probably be enough for the Rebels. The New Mexico game will be huge (see below for more).
Remaining Games: New Mexico (March 4), Utah (March 8)

New Mexico (22-7, 9-5): The loss to BYU hurt their at large hopes badly but a win against UNLV will get them right back into the hunt. Can they get it done?
Remaining Games: UNLV (March 4), Colorado State (March 8)


Pac 10

Locks (3):

USC (18-10, 9-7): Just when it looked like USC will get in for sure now after taking care of Arizona on the road Thursday night they lose to Arizona State on Saturday. They still are in decent shape for a bid though.
Remaining Games: California (March 6), Stanford (March 8)

Arizona State (18-10, 8-8): They bounce back after the loss to Washington by beating USC to get back to .500 in Pac 10 play. Now two winnable games against the Oregon schools remain.
Remaining Games: Oregon (March 6), Oregon State (March 8)

Arizona (17-12, 7-9) Uh oh. The Wildcats have the #1 SOS but they may not matter if they finish 8-10 in Pac 10 play. Zona needs to win their last two to feel good about their chances again.
Remaining Games: Oregon State (March 6), Oregon (March 8)

Oregon (15-12, 6-9): I think the Ducks are done.They have three winninable games left but they might to win all three to still be in contention for an at large going into the Pac 10 tournament.
Remaining Games: Oregon State (March 2), Arizona State (March 6), Arizona (March 8)


SEC

Locks: (2):

Kentucky (16-11, 10-4): Just when Kentucky had to start feeling good about their chances they lose Patrick Patterson for the season and follow that up by losing a nail biter to Tennessee. Wins in the season finales are now a must.
Remaining Games: South Carolina (March 5), Florida (March 9)

Florida (21-8, 8-6): The Gators need 10 SEC wins for big time consideration and after losing to Mississippi State that means they will need wins over Tennessee and Kentucky.
Remaining Games: Tennessee (March 5), Kentucky (March 9)

Mississippi State (20-8, 11-3): Welcome to the field Mississippi State. I don't see any way the Bulldogs will be left out, but I'm waiting to see how they play against Vanderbilt to move them to lock status.
Remaining Games: Vanderbilt (March 5), LSU (March 8)

Arkansas (19-9, 8-6): The Razorbacks have put themselves in a bad spot with back to back bad losses against Kentucky and Alabama. Then they rebound by beating a Vanderbilt squad that had just knocked off Tennessee. That win was very important and if they can win out they will probably be receiving a bid on Selection Sunday.
Remaining Games: Mississippi (March 4), Auburn (March 8)


Others

Locks: (3):

Virginia Commonwealth (23-6, 15-3): A lot of bubble teams are hoping the Rams get the CAA automatic bid so they can't steal an at large here.
Remaining Games: Hofstra/Townson (CAA Tournament, March 8)

Kent State (23-6, 11-3): Another bubble team nobody wants to see lose in their conference tournament. They almost assuredly will get an at large after their bracketbuster win, but the loss on Saturday did not help their odds.
Remaining Games: Miami (OH) (March 4), Akron (March 9)

Davidson (23-6, 20-0): If they lose in their tournament then they would be one of the hardest cases to decide on Selection Sunday, because they went undefeated through their conference and lost very tough games to ranked teams.
Remaining Games: Wofford/Western Carolina (Southern Tournament, March 8)
Category: NCAAB
Tags: Bubble Watch
 
Comments

Since: Jan 3, 2008
Posted on: March 4, 2008 9:09 pm
 

March 4 Bubble Watch: Pitt sliding farther back

I have...Minnesota doesn't have a good enough win and Nebraska needs some more Ws to even get on the bubble. It seems like all you do is criticize or find mistakes lilman lol.


lilman_bigskill
Since: Nov 7, 2006
Posted on: March 4, 2008 7:32 pm
This comment has been removed.

Post Deleted by Administrator




Since: Jan 8, 2008
Posted on: March 4, 2008 6:30 pm
 

March 4 Bubble Watch: Pitt sliding farther back

Butler isn't included in your 26.  I've added it up twice now.  the first poster is correct.



Since: Feb 28, 2008
Posted on: March 4, 2008 5:19 pm
 

March 4 Bubble Watch: Pitt sliding farther back

Pitt needs to win their next games or else it will be very tough for them to make it to Tourny.



Since: Jan 3, 2008
Posted on: March 3, 2008 11:20 pm
 

March 4 Bubble Watch: Pitt sliding farther back

No I'm counting Butler, 26 is right. I just don't have them listed on this page but I will fix that to clear things up.



Since: Sep 18, 2007
Posted on: March 3, 2008 11:17 pm
 

March 4 Bubble Watch: Pitt sliding farther back

Dan... you ought to have 27 locks... I just realised it, but you've been leaving Butler off.


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