Blog Entry

March 9 Bubble Watch: Arizona in BIG, BIG trouble

Posted on: March 9, 2008 1:45 am
Edited on: March 9, 2008 3:06 am
 
Saturday's biggest loser: Arizona
Saturday's biggest winner:Oregon

Total Locks (30):

ACC:

Locks (3):

Virginia Tech (18-11, 9-6): Would ten ACC wins be enough? In a normal year it would be, and this year the bubble is weaker than ever. They probably still need at least one ACC Tournament win along with 10 ACC regular season wins.
Remaining Games: Clemson (March 9), ACC Tournament (March 13-16)

Maryland (18-12, 8-7): The season finale is now a must after losing to Clemson on Sunday.
Remaining Games: Virginia (March 9), ACC Tournament (March 13-16)

Wake Forest (17-9, 7-9): Wake Forest might be done. The win over North Carolina State gave them an outside shot to get into the field if they make the ACC Tournament Final.
Remaining Games: N. C. State (March 8), ACC Tournament (March 13-16)

Miami (21-9, 8-8): Big loss to Florida State on Saturday but the Canes are still in decent shape. The only way they can probably play themselves out is a loss in the first round in the ACC Tournament.
Remaining Games: ACC Tournament (March 13-16)


Atlantic Ten

Locks (1):

Saint Josephs (18-11, 9-7): Can someone explain the Hawks to me? They lose back to back games against Temple and Saint Louis. Then they beat one of the best teams in the country, Xavier. Then they lose to Dayton.
Remaining Games: Atlantic 10 Tournament (March 12-15)

Massachusetts (20-9, 9-6): At 10-6 if they can avoid losing until at least the semifinals then they would be a tough debate on Selection Sunday. Right now their profile probably has them on the good side of the bubble.
Remaining Games: Atlantic 10 Tournament (March 12-15)

Rhode Island (21-10, 7-9): Another loss leaves the Rams in terrible shape entering the Atlantic 10 Tournament. Rhode Island probably needs to win the A10 tournament to get into the field.
Remaining Games: Atlantic 10 Tournament (March 12-15)

Dayton (20-9, 8-8): The Flyers are trying to turn things around in time for a last ditch run for the NCAA Tournament. Now even in the conference they are now in decent shape if they can play well in the Atlantic 10 Touranament.
Remaining Games: Atlantic 10 Tournament (March 12-15)


Big East

Locks (7):

Villanova (19-11, 9-9): Even in the Big East leaves them in the hunt going into the Big East tournament, but they still need at least a win or two in the Big East tournament.
Remaining Games: Big East Tournament (March 12-15)

Syracuse (18-12, 9-9): The win over Marquette was a nice win to get back to .500 in the Big East. With eight "locks" in the Big East you would think that only either Villanova or Syracuse will get into the field.
Remaining Games: Marquette (March 8), Big East Tournament (March 12-15)


Big Ten

Locks (4):

Ohio State (18-12, 9-8): Huge win over Purdue if they can follow that up by knocking off Michigan State then they might be in really really good shape depending on their first round Big Ten Tournament game (currently projected versus Northwestern).
Remaining Games: Michigan State (March 9), Big Ten Tournament (March 13-16)


Big 12

Locks (2):

Kansas State (21-9, 10-6): Kansas State looks like they are getting into the field. The Wildcats might want a Big 12 tournament win to make sure.
Remaining Games: Big 12 Tournament (March 13-16)

Texas A&M (22-9, 8-8): The Aggies have now fallen to .500 in the Big 12 after the loss to Kansas. Such a promising start has turned completely around and now a win in the Big 12 Tournament is almost a must to lock their bid up.
Remaining Games: Big 12 Tournament (March 13-16)

Baylor (21-9, 9-7): The Bears victory over Texas Tech has them above .500 in the Big 12 and gives them a first round bye in the Big 12 Tournament. Baylor is looking good for a bid now.
Remaining Games: Big 12 Tournament (March 13-16)

Oklahoma (21-10, 9-7): The Sooners look like they are getting a bid unless they just don't show up for the Big 12 Tournament. Oklahoma's win over Missouri put them 9-7 in the Big 12, a nice record against one of the nation's better conferences.
Remaining Games: Big 12 Tournament (March 13-16)


Conference USA

Locks: (1):

Houston (22-8, 11-5): The Cougars are now basically out of the at large hunt. Losing to UTEP puts them in terrible shape and probably means they have to win the Conference USA Tournament to get a bid.
Remaining Games: Conference USA Tournament (March 12-15)

UAB (22-9, 12-4): Wow that was ugly. Luckily if they win a few games they get another chance at Memphis but based off Saturday they may not want one.
Remaining Games: Conference USA Tournament (March 12-15)


Missouri Valley

Locks: (1):

Illinois State (23-8, 14-5): Big win in the tournament leaves ISU in great shape to get a bid. If they can win on more and get the automatic then their resume won't even matter.
Remaining Games: Drake (Missouri Valley Tournament, March 9)

Creighton (20-10, 10-8): The loss in the Valley semifinals likely ends their chances at the NCAA Tournament. It all depends on if other bubble teams struggle but it's very very unlikely that Creighton gets a bid.
Remaining Games: Season Finished


Mountain West

Locks: (1):

UNLV (23-7, 12-4): The win over Utah gets them 12-4 in the Mountain West and gives them the 2 seed in the MW tournament this week. If they can reach the finals they are going to get a bid to the big dance.
Remaining Games: Utah (March 8), Mountain West Tournament (March 12-15)

New Mexico (24-7, 11-5): HUGE win over UNLV. Then they follow that up by beating Colorado State. If they can reach the Mountain West semifinals then they will be a hard team to leave out on Selection Sunday.
Remaining Games: Mountain West Tournament (March 12-15)


Pac 10

Locks (4):

Arizona State (19-11, 9-9): The loss to Oregon leaves everyone comparing the two teams. Luckily ASU has won a game against Xavier this season in the non-conference, a huge win for the Sun Devils. One win the Pac 10 tournament probably gets them in.
Remaining Games: Oregon State (March 8), Pac 10 Tournament (March 12-15)

Arizona (18-13, 8-10): I can't believe I'm saying it but right now I have to believe the Wildcats are out after losing to Oregon. A quick exit in the Pac 10 tournament will almost assuredly leave them out on Selection Sunday.
Remaining Games: Pac 10 Tournament (March 12-15)

Oregon (18-12, 9-9): The Ducks have bounced back quicker than any team all season. They knock off Arizona State and Arizona in three nights and all of a sudden they appear back in the conversation.
Remaining Games: Pac 10 Tournament (March 12-15)


SEC

Locks: (3):

Kentucky (17-11, 11-4): Another win leaves them on the brink of the field heading into a HUGE bubble battle with Florida. The winner might make the field while the loser will be in trouble.
Remaining Games: Florida (March 9), SEC Tournament (March 13-16)

Florida (21-9, 8-7): The Gators blew a 16 point lead against Tennessee and now need to beat Kentucky and win at least one game in the SEC Tournament to have a realistic shot. Saturday is huge, in Lexington with both bubble teams needing wins.
Remaining Games: Kentucky (March 9), SEC Tournament (March 13-16)

Arkansas (20-10, 9-7): Arkansas looks better and better with every win (which haven't been coming as often lately) and every other bubble teams loss. I think the Hogs get in and the only way they don't is if they lose very quickly in the SEC Tournament and then a lot of other bubble teams start lighting ranked teams up. P. S., that isn't going to happen.
Remaining Games: SEC Tournament (March 13-16)

Mississippi (19-9, 6-9): Welcome to the conversation against Ole Miss. I was just telling my friend about how much the Ole Miss situation relates to last season's Arkansas debate. Arkansas was completely out of the picture, got hot and won their last few regular season games. Then as the West's third seed they were able to avoid the East's #1 seed and the SEC's best team Florida until the championship game. With a 7-9 record in conference they got into the field as a 12 seed. Arkansas was 5-9 in the SEC and then won five straight games including the SEC Tournament. This season Mississippi is also 7-9 in the SEC. They are the West's 3 seed and will avoid the East #1 seed and the SEC's best team Tennessee until the championship game. That means that Mississippi has the EXACT same profile as Arkansas from last year. That has to mean something doesn't it?
Remaining Games:
SEC Tournament (March 13-16)


Others

Locks: (3):

Virginia Commonwealth (24-6, 15-3): A lot of bubble teams are hoping the Rams get the CAA automatic bid so they can't steal an at large here.
Remaining Games: William & Mary (March 9)

Kent State (24-6, 11-3): Another bubble team nobody wants to see lose in their conference tournament. They almost assuredly will get an at large after their bracketbuster win. 13 wins in the MAC should get it done.
Remaining Games: Akron (March 9), Mac Tournament (March 12-15)

Davidson (24-6, 20-0): If they lose in their tournament then they would be one of the hardest cases to decide on Selection Sunday, because they went undefeated through their conference and lost very tough games to ranked teams.
Remaining Games: NC-Greensboro (March 9)
Category: NCAAB
Tags: Bubble Watch
 
Comments

Since: Aug 19, 2006
Posted on: March 10, 2008 2:34 am
 

March 9 Bubble Watch: Arizona in BIG, BIG trouble

Arizona has missed 2 starters during the middle of the season until now with Wise and Bayless, you cannot say that about Ole Miss.  Also, in the Pac-10 we have only 2 easy victories against Oregon State.  Unlike the SEC with LSU, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, and South Carolina.



Since: Feb 26, 2008
Posted on: March 10, 2008 12:12 am
 

March 9 Bubble Watch: Arizona in BIG, BIG trouble

I am probably one of the few glad to see AZ out of it or at least hope to be out of it



Since: Mar 9, 2008
Posted on: March 9, 2008 11:00 pm
 

March 9 Bubble Watch: Arizona in BIG, BIG trouble

Ole Miss should never be in unless they win the tournament. 

While Ole Miss went through a bad strecth (losing to LSU, Auburn, ans South Carolina hurts), why is it so hard for everyone to look at the big picture?  They had a great run prior to the SEC (wins against South Alabama, New Mexico, and Clemson), they are 21-9 overall and 5-4 against the RPI top 50, they beat both Vanderbilt and MS State and lost on the road to Tennessee by only 2.  They also seem to be out of their slump and have won their last three in a row.  Try to look at the big picture and it's easy to see them as a bubble team.

By the way, Arizona has no one to blame but themselves.  They're only 17-13 overall and only 3-7 in their last ten.  Both Ole Miss and Arizona have cases...it's definately not as black and white as you tried to point out.




Since: Jan 3, 2008
Posted on: March 9, 2008 10:04 pm
 

March 9 Bubble Watch: Arizona in BIG, BIG trouble

My and my are now up, check them out!



Since: Apr 4, 2007
Posted on: March 9, 2008 9:47 pm
 

March 9 Bubble Watch: Arizona in BIG, BIG trouble

Arkansas dominated LSU in Baton Rouge by 20 my friend. You are right, we didn't beat South Carolina at  Columbus, because we never played that game.  Jla3490 please don't be upset because you had a monster opportunity up in Eugene, OR this weekend against the Ducks and blew it. If you are as good as you think you are, you will win the Pac-10 tourney, and there will be nothing to worry about.Washington and USC in Pac-10 have road wins against LSU and South Carolina, no SEC bubble teams can claim that.



Since: Nov 21, 2006
Posted on: March 9, 2008 9:37 pm
 

March 9 Bubble Watch: Arizona in BIG, BIG trouble

Vanderbilt's best road/neutral win was Utah State

Their inability to win on the road may hurt them down the road, but still a great team.

Kentucky and Florida do not have a top 50 RPI road winThis doesn't mean anything.  You play on a neutral court in the tourney.

Arkansas' best road wins were VCU and BaylorNot the best of teams, average at best, but they're not bad by any means.

Kentucky doing well in the SEC proves how terrible the conference is.
If I had a nickel for everytime I've read this statement.  Tell me why it's impossible for a team to improve as the year moves along.  Why is it so impossible? 

Washington and USC in Pac-10 have road wins against LSU and South Carolina, no SEC bubble teams can claim that.
What, that they've beaten LSU and South Carolina on the road?  Yeah, quite a few can.








Since: Aug 19, 2006
Posted on: March 9, 2008 7:47 pm
 

March 9 Bubble Watch: Arizona in BIG, BIG trouble

I'm so glad that Arizona is out with playing in the toughest conference, yet Kentucky has been running through the glorified high school SEC.  Arizona has more combined top 100 RPI wins than Florida and Kentucky combined.  Florida, Kentucky and Ole Miss should never be in unless they win the tournament.  Florida essentially played a high school schedule and struggled.

Facts
Vanderbilt's best road/neutral win was Utah State
Kentucky and Florida do not have a top 50 RPI road win
Arkansas' best road wins were VCU and Baylor
Kentucky doing well in the SEC proves how terrible the conference is.
Washington and USC in Pac-10 have road wins against LSU and South Carolina, no SEC bubble teams can claim that.

Tennessee and MS State are the only legit teams in the SEC.  If the Selection Committee has more than 4 SEC teams in they should take a lot of heat.



Since: Sep 26, 2007
Posted on: March 9, 2008 6:47 pm
 

March 9 Bubble Watch: Arizona in BIG, BIG trouble

i'm a BIG BIG BIG Arizona fan.... and as much as i hate to say it, i have to agree with you that if the season ended today, we would be out... just a season of utter and complete turmoil with the coaching situation, the brutal schedule, the injuries, and horrible pac-10 officiating (which is now even more in the spotlight after the 2 UCLA games this week.... wanna see a horrible call, look at the last 30 seconds of the Arizona Stanford game and the phantom call against the Cats)....  all that being said i believe that the pac ten puts at least 6 teams into the big dance this year....  2 of the 3 (ASU UA ORE) will get in, and its going to come down to the pac-10 tourney. 

my prediction is that Arizona  will still make the dance...they still have a good chance of getting in if they play well in the pac-10...i'm not going to go out on a limb and say they will win it, cuz i dont think they will...UCLA will hands down  however, we get ORE St in the first round, and we just blew them out by 40, then we get Stanford... and we played them tough twice this year.  not to mention they are slumping having lost 2 in a row, and how hard it is to beat a team 3 times in the same season...then if we get a good showing against what should be Washington State (not 100% sure bout the seedings) which we beat twice this season as well, then that puts us in the title game, over 20 wins, and finishing the season relatively strong... we'll see what happens, and i agree if they picked the field now we are out, but the season still has one big weekend remaining for the Cats....and even though we lost to Oregon (they shot lights out in the 2nd half...and our D was bad) that would be a strong finish for Arizona, and would likely get us a 10 or 11 seed (damn...thats embarassing to even say... a seed over 10???   we need Lute Olson back)

 

 




Since: Mar 8, 2008
Posted on: March 9, 2008 6:45 pm
 

March 9 Bubble Watch: Arizona in BIG, BIG trouble

Kentucky will get in with that huge win over Florida.



Since: Jan 16, 2008
Posted on: March 9, 2008 6:00 pm
 

March 9 Bubble Watch: Arizona in BIG, BIG trouble

The SEC has been a wild race all year.  Ole Miss should get in based on the fact that they have the same MO that Arkansas had last year.


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com