Don't know what to think of this Alex Rodriguez, torn labrum, possible surgery and four-month rehabilitation hoopla? Join the club.
He says he'll try to play through it, but that approach has its drawbacks, most notably the "try" and the "through."
I have him in a keeper league. I have him in several leagues actually, so my heart aches today. But in this keeper league, I also have Chase Utley, coming off his own hip surgery that could still end up sidelining him for the beginning of the season. I could deal with his risk on its own, but can I really afford to keep both him and A-Rod? Can you afford to take them with your first two picks?
I'd like to hear more. I'd like some kind of assurance he'll last through the season, but I doubt I'll get it. The information I have today likely won't change by the time I have to make my decision.
So how far should he fall? The second round? Further, even? The Yankees might coddle him, sitting him twice a week, or his season could end the moment he starts feeling pain. Shoot, he could change his mind three weeks from now and decide he doesn't want to take the chance -- as in that's it, season over, hope you haven't drafted yet.
I almost want to tell you to wait until the second round to draft A-Rod. At least then, you know you'll have another surefire stud to fall back on. If you bank on A-Rod as your best player, you could have big-time problems -- ones you can reasonably predict today. Does the potential reward of getting him two or three picks later than you should outweigh the risk of getting nothing or half a season of nothing?
I think at the very least, you have to wait until late in the first round to take him, when the distinction between your best and second-best player becomes less apparent. Quite honestly, though, I dread the day when he falls to me with the ninth overall pick. I doubt I could turn him down, but having him would make for one anxious season.
Doesn't sound like much fun to me.