Blog Entry

The Tournament Formula says....

Posted on: March 20, 2008 2:35 am
Edited on: March 20, 2008 3:03 pm
 

Pick and roll...

Formula Factors

Leadership

  • 1 point for a freshman
  • 2 for a sophomore
  • 3 for a junior
  • 4 for a senior
Only counting players that played more than 10 minutes in the team's last close game. Total these up and divide by the number of players
  • Ex. 1 freshmen (1 point) 4 juniors (12 points) 2 seniors (8 points)
    • total 21 points and 7 players, divide 21 by 7 and you get 3

Size

  • half a point for each starter that is 6'10" or taller
  • half a point for each starter over 225 pounds or heavier
  • 1 point for a starter that is 6"10" or taller and 225 pounds or heavier
  • half a point for a bench contributor that is 6"10" or taller and 225 pounds or heavier
  • one fourth point for each bench contributor 6"10" or taller
  • one forth point for each bench contributor that is 225 pounds or heavier
Again only counting players that played more than 10 minutes in the team's last close game. These are to be totaled.

Shooters

  • three forths of a point for each starter shooting over 40% from 3
  • half a point for each starter shooting between 35% and 39.9% from 3
  • three eighths of a point for each bench contributer shooting above 40% from 3
  • one quarter point for each bench contributer shooting between 35% and 39.9% from 3
Again counting only players that played more than 10 minutes in the team's last close game. These are to be totaled as well.

Team 3pt%

  • subtract 30 from the team's overall 3pt% and divide by 2. Add this to the total

Team Free throw %

  • subtract 62 from the team's overall free throw % and divide by 3. Add this to the total

Scoring Margin

  • Divide a power conference team's scoring margin by 1.5. Add this to that team's total
    • Power Conference=Pac10, Big10, Big12, SEC, ACC, Big East
  • Divide a Major Conference team's scoring margin by 2. Add this to the team's total
    • Major Conference= Mountain West, Atlantic 10, Conference USA
  • Divide a Mid-Major conference team's scoring margin by 3. Add this to that team's total.
    • Mid-Major Conference =Sun Belt, Colonial, MAAC, Missouri Valley, MAC, WAC, WCC
  • Divide a small conference school's scoring margin by 4 and add this to their total
    • All other conferences are considered small
All of these factors combine to make a team's formula total

Formula top ten

  1. Kansas 1 seed Midwest Region 27.46 points
  2. North Carolina 1 seed East Region 25.142 points
  3. Notre Dame 5 seed East Region 22.707 points
  4. Xavier 3 seed West Region 22.408 points
  5. UCLA 1 seed West Region 22.304 points
  6. Duke 2 seed West Region 21.98 points
  7. Washington St. 4 seed East Region 21.817 points
  8. Wisconsin 3 seed Midwest Region 21.168 points
  9. Texas 2 seed South Region 20.659 points
  10. Michigan State 5 seed South Region 20.645 points

Formula locks

(passed by a team that was not within 2.5 formula points of them)

  • Kansas to the Final 4
  • Wisconsin, Michigan State, and UCLA to the Elite 8
  • North Carolina, Xavier and Vanderbilt to the Sweet 16
  • Notre Dame, Washington State, Saint Joe's, Louisville, Clemson, Gonzaga, Oregon, Memphis, Pitt, Marquette, Miami, Texas, Drake, Uconn, and Duke to round 2

Upset Watch

(teams within 2.5 points of each other) top 4 seeds in bold

If a team is within 2.5 points of another team, this game could go either way, for the sake of this exercise I took the team with the higher rating.

First Round

  • 7. Butler 15.475, 10. South Alabama 15.186
  • 2. Tennessee 18.556, 15. American 16.225
  • 6. USC 14.714, 11. Kansas State 13.793
  • 2. Georgetown 18.092, 15. UMBC 16.135
  • 3. Stanford 19.892, 14. Cornell 19.217
  • 11. Baylor 18.334, 6.Purdue 16. 697
  • 7. West Virginia 19.857, 10. Arizona 19.083

Second Round

  • 5. Notre Dame 22.707, 4. Washington State 21.817
  • 11. Saint Joe's 17.483, 3. Louisville 17.334
  • 2. Georgetown 18.092, 7. Gonzaga 17.697
  • 9. Oregon 16.39, 1. Memphis 15.9
  • 3. Stanford 19.892, 6. Marquette 19.141
  • 2 Texas 20.659, 7. Miami 19.3
  • 5. Drake 18.569, 4. Uconn 17.746
  • 2. Duke 21. 98, 7. West Virginia 19. 857

Sweet 16

  • 1. North Carolina 25.142, 5. Notre Dame 22.707
  • 2. Tennessee 18.556, 11. St. Joe's 17.483
  • 2. Texas 20.659, 3. Stanford 19.892
  • 3. Xavier 22.408, 2 Duke 21.98

Elite 8

  • 2. Texas 20.659, 5. Michigan St. 20.645
  • 3 Xavier 22.408, 1. UCLA 22.304

Formula Final 4

  • East North Carolina
  • Midwest Kansas
  • South Texas
  • West Xavier

Championship game

  • Kansas
  • Xavier

Champion

Kansas Jayhawks

(note the only team within 2.5 formula points of Kansas was North Carolina)


If you like a team that is not mentioned and would like to know how they made out based on the formula, let me know




Comments

Since: Jan 24, 2008
Posted on: March 30, 2008 2:20 am
 

The Tournament Formula says....

well d2w I think I could find a way...

formula missed on 8 out of 22 locks

only by one round on 7 of them

had Vanderbilt in the sweet 16

it will be tweaked and will return more in depth and better next year

I still have a shot of getting 3 of the final 4 after Xavier went down to UCLA




Since: Jan 24, 2008
Posted on: March 30, 2008 2:18 am
This comment has been removed.

Post Deleted by Administrator




Since: Sep 21, 2006
Posted on: March 29, 2008 11:44 am
 

The Tournament Formula says....

Hi Coach Bib. Great job on the formula. The question is can you get all those formulas in a MS Excel spreadsheet ? ha ha




Since: Dec 11, 2007
Posted on: March 20, 2008 9:44 pm
 

The Tournament Formula says....

Great Blog Coach Bib. It was very insitefull.



Since: Jan 24, 2008
Posted on: March 20, 2008 6:26 pm
 

The Tournament Formula says....

yeah GTA I wanted to get it done earlier, but my professors loaded up on the tests here right before spring break



Since: Jan 24, 2008
Posted on: March 20, 2008 6:22 pm
 

The Tournament Formula says....

formula has missed one so far

Baylor vs. Purdue, but Baylor did have an advantage of less than 2.5



Since: Nov 3, 2007
Posted on: March 20, 2008 6:00 pm
 

The Tournament Formula says....

I just went with my gut but this formula is pretty good. I wish I would of seen this two days ago.



Since: Jan 24, 2008
Posted on: March 20, 2008 4:21 pm
 

The Tournament Formula says....

yeah cheef offered some of his factors so I've already got some things I'm going to add next year



Since: Jan 10, 2008
Posted on: March 20, 2008 4:13 pm
 

The Tournament Formula says....

Great job Bib. The research involved here is mind boggling. This formula is a bit more complicated than mine (close eyes and drop finger on bracket ). I'm going to refer to this blog periodicaly to see how its working out. Again great job, very impressive.



Since: Jan 24, 2008
Posted on: March 20, 2008 4:07 pm
 

The Tournament Formula says....

Yeah I only did one bracket based fully on this

I did a couple based on this but picking some of the underdogs in games where teams were within 2.5 of each other

almost went down early in the Xavier game


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com