Blog Entry

Bowl pix by JR -- the Real Expert

Posted on: December 17, 2010 10:48 pm
Edited on: December 17, 2010 11:05 pm

Are you ready for the Bowl Season? First kickoff is less than 16 hours away.

Even though I failed to defend my regular-season title among the experts, I look to bounce back with my bowl picks … but I have always struggled this time of year. You never know what team will show up; if a team is so bummed it's not playing in a bigger bowl (See Alabama) and isn't as focused as it should be.

But below, I'm making my picks anyway. More importantly, I'd like to point out my underdog moneyline strategy, which I will keep an updated scorecard for on the comment part of this blog.

The idea: Play the moneyline on the underdog for every bowl through Dec. 30. In the picks below, I list the moneyline in parentheses from

Ex: BYU over UTEP (+320) means, even though I'm picking BYU to win to help my standings vs. the experts, I'm suggesting to play UTEP at +320 to win outright. I will keep records for my picks and the underdog moneylines for all the games. But I don't like the underdog moneylines after Dec. 30.

Some games won't have a +moneyline next to it, because there isn't one if the game is virtually a pick 'em.

Before getting to my winners below, a quick reminder of the Expert Picks regular-season standings: Chip Patterson 236-68, Darst 234-70, me 230-74, Dodd 2227-77, Jacobi 225-79 & Horowitz 222-82.

As for my regular-season suggestions, I finished 19-23-1. I know, not good, but we'll get three of them back on Day 1 as I like the lines on all three games (UTEP +11½, Northern Illinois -1½ & Ohio +2).

There are a total of seven games I like. Add Central Florida +6½, Michigan State +9½, TCU-Wisconsin over of 58½ and Kentucky +3½.

If there are any more that pop up, I'll post on the comment board of this blog.

Good luck and have a happy holiday & bowl season.

New Mexico:  BYU over UTEP (+320) – Take the 11½ points
Humanitarian: Northern Illinois over Fresno State (+114) – Lay the 1½ 
New Orleans: Ohio (+110) over Troy – Take the 2 points

Beef O'Brady's:  Southern Mississippi (+120) over Louisville

Maaco: Boise State over Utah (+485) 

Poinsettia: San Diego State over Navy (+165)

Hawaii: Hawaii over Tulsa (+305)

Little Caesars: Florida International (+108) over Toledo

Independence: Air Force over Georgia Tech (+125)

Champs Sports: West Virginia over North Carolina State (+125)
Insight: Missouri over Iowa (+108)

Military: East Carolina (+240) over Maryland
Texas: Baylor over Illinois (+110)
Alamo: Arizona (+175) over Oklahoma State

Armed Forces: SMU over Army (+250)
Pinstripe: Kansas State over Syracuse
Music City: Tennessee (+110) over North Carolina
Holiday: Nebraska over Washington (+400)

Meineke Car Care: Clemson over South Florida (+170)
Sun: Notre Dame (+125) over Miami
Liberty: Georgia over Central Florida (+210) – Take the 6½ points
Chick-Fil-A: South Carolina over Florida State (+135)

SATURDAY, JAN. 1, 2011
TicketCity: Texas Tech over Northwestern (+300)
Outback: Florida over Penn State (+250)
Capital One: Alabama over Michigan State (+310) – Take the 9½ points
Gator: Mississippi State over Michigan (+170)
Rose: Wisconsin 36 (+120), TCU 28 – Play the over of 58½
Fiesta: Oklahoma 42, Connecticut 13 (+475)

Orange: Stanford 38, Virginia Tech 30 (+140)

Sugar: Ohio State 31, Arkansas 24 (+145)

Go Miami of Ohio over Middle Tennessee State

Cotton: LSU over Texas A&M (+101)

BBVA Compass: Kentucky (+145) over Pittsburgh – Take the 3½ points

Fight Hunger: Nevada over Boston College (+310)

BCS title game: Auburn 43, Oregon 38 (+135)

Category: NCAAF
Tags: Air Force, Alabama, Alamo Bowl, Arizona, Arkansas, Armed Forces Bowl, Army, Auburn, Bama, Baylor, BBVA Compass Bowl, BCS Championship Game, BCS Title Game, Beef O’Brady’s Bowl, Boise State, Boston College, bowl predictions, bowl season, Brigham Young, BYU, Capital One Bowl, Central Florida, Champs Sports Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Clemson, College football, college football handicapping, college football picks, Connecticut, Cotton Bowl, Eagle Bank Bowl, East Carolina, expert picks, Fiesta Bowl, Fight Hunger Bowl, FIU, Florida, Florida International, Florida State, Fresno State, FSU, Ga. Tech, Gator Bowl, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Bowl, Hawaii, Hawaii Bowl, Holiday Bowl, Humanitarian Bowl, Illinois, Independence Bowl, Insight Bowl, Iowa, K-State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Liberty Bowl, Little Caesars Pizza Bowl, Louisiana State, Louisville, LSU, Maaco Bowl, Maryland, Meineke Car Care Bowl, Miami, Miami of Ohio, Michigan, Michigan State, Middle Tennessee State, Military Bowl, Mississippi State, Missouri, money line, moneyline, MSU, Music City Bowl, Navy, NC State, NCAA football, NCAA football picks, NCAA handicapping, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico Bowl, New Orleans Bowl, NIU, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio, Ohio State, OK State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Orange Bowl, Oregon, OSU, Outback Bowl, Penn State, Pinstripe Bowl, Pittsburgh, Poinsettia Bowl, Rose Bowl, San Diego State, SMU, South Carolina, South Florida, Southern Methodist, Southern Miss, Southern Mississippi, St. Petersburg Bowl, Stanford, Sugar Bowl, Sun Bowl, Syracuse, TCU, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Texas Bowl, Texas Christian, Texas Tech, Texas-El Paso, TicketCity Bowl, Toledo, Top 25, Troy, Tulsa, UCF, UConn, UNC, underdogs, upsets, USF, Utah, UTEP, Va. Tech, Virginia Tech, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin

Since: Aug 24, 2006
Posted on: December 31, 2010 2:14 am

Bowl pix by JR – Dec. 30 update

Now that's how the Underdog Moneyline Strategy works. Army opened the day with a +250 win over SMU. Syracuse followed with a +103 victory against North Carolina. Then, Washington closed the day with a HUGE +390 win vs. Nebraska.

We won't count the North Carolina victory over Tennessee because it was a PICK.

But that makes us +51.3 with a 6-8 record, the key being Washington's +390.

Underdog moneyline strategy
4-8/+25/Total: +2: Armed Forces: Army (+250) wins as DOG vs. SMU
5-8/+10.3/Total +12.3: Pinstripe: Syracuse (+103) wins as DOG vs. Kansas State
DNP: Music City: North Carolina wins as PICK vs. Tennessee
6-8/+39/Total +51.3: Holiday: Washington (+390) wins as DOG vs. Nebraska

So if we finish out the Underdog Moneyline Strategy plays with the Dec. 31 games, we're guaranteed to finish in the black. The most we could lose is -40 at the -10 per game & we’re up 51.3!
Pretty cool, huh?

As for the standings, I continued my disgraceful showing, going 0-4 That drops me to 6-12 on the bowl season. All the experts lost on SMU and everyone except for Jacobi called the Washington upset.

Expert Picks standings
Thursday’s Bowls: Chip Patterson 2-2, Jacobi 2-2, Horowitz 1-3, Darst 1-3, Dodd 0-4 & me 0-4
Bowls: Chip Patterson 11-7, Darst 9-9, Dodd 7-11, Jacobi 9-9, Horowitz 8-10 & me 6-12
Overall: Patterson 247-75, Darst 243-79, me 236-86, Dodd 234-88, Jacobi 234-88 & Horowitz 230-92

Since: Aug 24, 2006
Posted on: December 30, 2010 3:08 am

Bowl pix by JR -- Dec. 29 update

So much for Wednesday's dogs. I went 0-3.

Expert Picks standings
Bowls: Chip Patterson 9-5, Darst 8-6, Dodd 7-7, Jacobi 7-7, Horowitz 7-7 & me 6-8
Overall: Patterson 245-73, Darst 242-76, me 236-82, Dodd 234-84, Jacobi 232-86 & Horowitz 229-89

Underdog moneyline strategy
3-7/-10/Total -13: Military: Maryland wins as FAV vs. East Carolina (+270)
3-8/-10/Total -23: Alamo: Oklahoma State wins as FAV vs. Arizona (+170)

I’m not counting the Texas Bowl since Illinois opened as the dog and closed as the favorite in its win over Baylor.

Since: Aug 24, 2006
Posted on: December 29, 2010 3:41 am

Bowl pix by JR -- Dec. 28 update

The Experts showed their true colors on Tuesday. Everyone went 0-2 except for Dodd, the only one to get a win with North Carolina State.

But it was a good day for the Underdog Moneyline Strategy.

N.C. State and Iowa, which beat Mizzou, both closed at +130. Our unit total is still negative (-3), but today was a move in the right direction. The 0-6 start really hurt. Just one dog winner out that group and we'd be in the positive.

But with 11 games left through Dec. 31, there's good opportunities to get in the black.

Interesting notes
Had you parlayed the two moneylines, it would have paid you 4.29 to 1. A regular two-team parlay pays 2.6 to 1.
Make it a 3-monelyline parlay with the Vikings (+685) and it would have paid 40.52 to 1. A regular three-teamer pays 6 to 1.

Make it a 4-moneyline parlay with the Raptors (+500) stunning the Mavs and it would have paid 248.159 to 1. Not bad, especially when a regular 4-teamer pays 10 to 1.

Every trip I make to Vegas, I always put together some sort of big underdog moneyline play for $3 every day, knowing the odds are against me. Minimum bets are $5, so I usually have a friend toss in $3 of his/her own. I've never hit a big one, but once we hit a 4-teamer when we picked all the AL dogs that day (it was a small MLB slate that day).

Imagine if you would have hit the 248 to 1 on Tuesday. If you ever try it, just be aware some sportsbooks will only pay a max. My last trip to the Mirage, they would only pay 200 to 1, but some sportsbooks will do it. The Monte Carlo used to. I'm not sure if they do still.

To the scorecards
Underdog moneyline strategy
2-6/+13/Total -16: Champs Sports: N.C. State (+130) wins as DOG vs. West Virginia
3-6/+13/Total -3: Insight: Iowa (+130) wins as DOG vs. Missouri

Expert Picks standings
Bowls: Chip Patterson 7-4, me 6-5, Darst 5-6, Dodd 5-6, Horowitz 5-6 & Jacobi 4-7
Overall: Patterson 243-72, Darst 239-76, me 236-79, Dodd 232-83, Jacobi 229-86 & Horowitz 227-88

Since: Aug 24, 2006
Posted on: December 27, 2010 11:39 pm

Bowl pix by JR -- Dec. 27 update

Independence Bowl update
All the experts except for Jacobi had Air Force.

Expert Standings
Bowls: Chip Patterson 7-2, me 6-3, Darst 5-4, Horowitz 5-4, Dodd 4-5 & Jacobi 4-5.
Overall: Patterson 243-70, Darst 239-74, me 236-77, Dodd 231-82, Jacobi 229-84 & Horowitz 227-86.

Underdog moneyline strategy tally
1-6/-10/Total -29: Independence: Air Force wins as FAV vs. Ga. Tech (+125)

Since: Aug 24, 2006
Posted on: December 27, 2010 3:39 am

Bowl pix by JR -- Dec. 26 update

What a game. What a game. So far, the best bowl (finish) of the bowl season.

All the experts except for Horowitz had FIU, leaving the Expert Standings at ….
Bowls: Chip Patterson 6-2, Darst 4-4, me, 5-3, Dodd 3-5, Jacobi 4-4 & Horowitz 4-4.
Overall: Patterson 242-70, Darst 238-74, me 235-77, Dodd 230-82, Jacobi 229-83 & Horowitz 226-86.

Underdog moneyline strategy tally
We're not going to count this game since FIU opened as the DOG and closed as a 2½-point favorite. In case you're wondering, Toledo closed at +110.

Since: Aug 24, 2006
Posted on: December 27, 2010 3:39 am
This comment has been removed.

Post Deleted by Administrator

Since: Aug 24, 2006
Posted on: December 25, 2010 12:33 am

Bowl pix by JR -- 1st dog hits

Well so much for the under of 74 in the Hawaii Bowl. That makes me 20-27-1 on the season and 1-4 on the bowl season when it comes to suggestions.

But hey, the "underdog moneyline play" finally came in. Tulsa closed as a +310. That means after the favorites won the first five for a total of -50, Tulsa's +31 brings us to -19.

Underdog moneyline strategy tally
1-5/+31/Total -19: Hawaii: Tulsa (+310) wins as DOG vs. Hawaii

As for the experts. Everyone was wrong with the hometeam pick.
Standings: Chip Patterson 241-70, Darst 237-74, me 234-77, Dodd 229-82, Jacobi 228-83 & Horowitz 226-85.

Since: Aug 24, 2006
Posted on: December 24, 2010 6:22 pm

Bowl pix by JR -- Under 74 in Hawaii Bowl

Handicapping suggestion: Play the under of 74 in tonight's Tulsa-Hawaii game.

Since: Aug 24, 2006
Posted on: December 24, 2010 12:20 pm

Bowl pix by JR -- Dec. 23 update

The underdogs are now 0-6 straight up in the bowls. This makes my "underdog moneyline strategy" seem foolish. Let's see if the post-Xmas bowls turn things around or even better if Tulsa shocks Hawaii tonight as a +310.

Underdog moneyline strategy
0-1/-10: New Mexico BYY wins as FAV vs. UTEP (+320)
0-2/-10/Total -20: Humanitarian: Northern Illinois wins as FAV vs. Fresno State (+111)
0-3/-10/Total -30: New Orleans: Troy wins as FAV vs. Ohio (+110)
0-4/-10/Total -40: Beef O’Brady’s: Louisville wins as FAV vs. So. Miss (+120)
0-5/-10/Total -50: Poinsettia: San Diego St. wins as FAV vs. Navy (+130)

Note: I called off the moneyline play on Utah (+550) vs. Boise State in the Las Vegas Bowl.

Expert Pick standings
I picked up a game on Darst as him and Dodd picked Navy last night.
Chip Patterson 241-69, Darst 237-73, me 234-76, Dodd 229-81, Jacobi 228-82 & Horowitz 226-84.

Since: Aug 24, 2006
Posted on: December 23, 2010 12:30 am

Bowl pix by JR -- Boise way short

Well, that stunk -- Boise failing to score at least 39 points. That makes my handicapping record 20-26-1 on the year. Uggggh.

It was no surprise that all the experts picked the Broncos to win outright. Remember I called this game off for the underdog moneyline strategy. 

Expert Picks standings: Chip Patterson 240-69, Darst 237-72, me 233-76, Dodd 229-80, Jacobi 227-82 & Horowitz 225-84.

The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or