Blog Entry

Bowl pix by JR -- the Real Expert

Posted on: December 17, 2010 10:48 pm
Edited on: December 17, 2010 11:05 pm
 

Are you ready for the Bowl Season? First kickoff is less than 16 hours away.

Even though I failed to defend my regular-season title among the experts, I look to bounce back with my bowl picks … but I have always struggled this time of year. You never know what team will show up; if a team is so bummed it's not playing in a bigger bowl (See Alabama) and isn't as focused as it should be.

But below, I'm making my picks anyway. More importantly, I'd like to point out my underdog moneyline strategy, which I will keep an updated scorecard for on the comment part of this blog.

The idea: Play the moneyline on the underdog for every bowl through Dec. 30. In the picks below, I list the moneyline in parentheses from scoresandodds.com.

Ex: BYU over UTEP (+320) means, even though I'm picking BYU to win to help my standings vs. the experts, I'm suggesting to play UTEP at +320 to win outright. I will keep records for my picks and the underdog moneylines for all the games. But I don't like the underdog moneylines after Dec. 30.

Some games won't have a +moneyline next to it, because there isn't one if the game is virtually a pick 'em.

Before getting to my winners below, a quick reminder of the Expert Picks regular-season standings: Chip Patterson 236-68, Darst 234-70, me 230-74, Dodd 2227-77, Jacobi 225-79 & Horowitz 222-82.

HANDICAPPING
As for my regular-season suggestions, I finished 19-23-1. I know, not good, but we'll get three of them back on Day 1 as I like the lines on all three games (UTEP +11½, Northern Illinois -1½ & Ohio +2).

There are a total of seven games I like. Add Central Florida +6½, Michigan State +9½, TCU-Wisconsin over of 58½ and Kentucky +3½.

If there are any more that pop up, I'll post on the comment board of this blog.

Good luck and have a happy holiday & bowl season.

THE WINNERS
SATURDAY, DEC. 18
New Mexico:  BYU over UTEP (+320) – Take the 11½ points
Humanitarian: Northern Illinois over Fresno State (+114) – Lay the 1½ 
New Orleans: Ohio (+110) over Troy – Take the 2 points

TUESDAY, DEC. 21
Beef O'Brady's:  Southern Mississippi (+120) over Louisville

WEDNESDAY, DEC. 22
Maaco: Boise State over Utah (+485) 

THURSDAY, DEC. 23
Poinsettia: San Diego State over Navy (+165)

FRIDAY, DEC. 24
Hawaii: Hawaii over Tulsa (+305)

SUNDAY, DEC. 26
Little Caesars: Florida International (+108) over Toledo

MONDAY, DEC. 27
Independence: Air Force over Georgia Tech (+125)

TUESDAY, DEC. 28
Champs Sports: West Virginia over North Carolina State (+125)
Insight: Missouri over Iowa (+108)

WEDNESDAY, DEC. 29
Military: East Carolina (+240) over Maryland
Texas: Baylor over Illinois (+110)
Alamo: Arizona (+175) over Oklahoma State

THURSDAY, DEC. 30
Armed Forces: SMU over Army (+250)
Pinstripe: Kansas State over Syracuse
Music City: Tennessee (+110) over North Carolina
Holiday: Nebraska over Washington (+400)

FRIDAY, DEC. 31
Meineke Car Care: Clemson over South Florida (+170)
Sun: Notre Dame (+125) over Miami
Liberty: Georgia over Central Florida (+210) – Take the 6½ points
Chick-Fil-A: South Carolina over Florida State (+135)

SATURDAY, JAN. 1, 2011
TicketCity: Texas Tech over Northwestern (+300)
Outback: Florida over Penn State (+250)
Capital One: Alabama over Michigan State (+310) – Take the 9½ points
Gator: Mississippi State over Michigan (+170)
Rose: Wisconsin 36 (+120), TCU 28 – Play the over of 58½
Fiesta: Oklahoma 42, Connecticut 13 (+475)

MONDAY, JAN. 3
Orange: Stanford 38, Virginia Tech 30 (+140)

TUESDAY, JAN. 4
Sugar: Ohio State 31, Arkansas 24 (+145)

THURSDAY, JAN. 6
Go Daddy.com: Miami of Ohio over Middle Tennessee State

FRIDAY, JAN. 7
Cotton: LSU over Texas A&M (+101)

SATURDAY, JAN. 8
BBVA Compass: Kentucky (+145) over Pittsburgh – Take the 3½ points

SUNDAY, JAN. 9
Fight Hunger: Nevada over Boston College (+310)

MONDAY, JAN. 10
BCS title game: Auburn 43, Oregon 38 (+135)

Category: NCAAF
Tags: Air Force, Alabama, Alamo Bowl, Arizona, Arkansas, Armed Forces Bowl, Army, Auburn, Bama, Baylor, BBVA Compass Bowl, BCS Championship Game, BCS Title Game, Beef O’Brady’s Bowl, Boise State, Boston College, bowl predictions, bowl season, Brigham Young, BYU, Capital One Bowl, Central Florida, Champs Sports Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Clemson, College football, college football handicapping, college football picks, Connecticut, Cotton Bowl, Eagle Bank Bowl, East Carolina, expert picks, Fiesta Bowl, Fight Hunger Bowl, FIU, Florida, Florida International, Florida State, Fresno State, FSU, Ga. Tech, Gator Bowl, Georgia, Georgia Tech, GoDaddy.com Bowl, Hawaii, Hawaii Bowl, Holiday Bowl, Humanitarian Bowl, Illinois, Independence Bowl, Insight Bowl, Iowa, K-State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Liberty Bowl, Little Caesars Pizza Bowl, Louisiana State, Louisville, LSU, Maaco Bowl, Maryland, Meineke Car Care Bowl, Miami, Miami of Ohio, Michigan, Michigan State, Middle Tennessee State, Military Bowl, Mississippi State, Missouri, money line, moneyline, MSU, Music City Bowl, Navy, NC State, NCAA football, NCAA football picks, NCAA handicapping, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico Bowl, New Orleans Bowl, NIU, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio, Ohio State, OK State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Orange Bowl, Oregon, OSU, Outback Bowl, Penn State, Pinstripe Bowl, Pittsburgh, Poinsettia Bowl, Rose Bowl, San Diego State, SMU, South Carolina, South Florida, Southern Methodist, Southern Miss, Southern Mississippi, St. Petersburg Bowl, Stanford, Sugar Bowl, Sun Bowl, Syracuse, TCU, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Texas Bowl, Texas Christian, Texas Tech, Texas-El Paso, TicketCity Bowl, Toledo, Top 25, Troy, Tulsa, UCF, UConn, UNC, underdogs, upsets, USF, Utah, UTEP, Va. Tech, Virginia Tech, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin
 
Comments

Since: Aug 24, 2006
Posted on: December 22, 2010 4:51 pm
 

Bowl pix by JR -- Boise over 38 1/2

Even though my underdog moneyline strategy says to play the dogs, we're going to disregard that for tonight's Boise State-Utah game. I just don’t see how Boise State doesn't win this one. Of course, I might be kicking myself later since Utah is +550.

As for a handicapping suggestion: Play over the total points for Bosie. Sportsbook.com is listing it at 38½ (-125). If the Broncos don't put up at least 40, I'd be shocked. They'll likely score in the 50s.




Since: Aug 24, 2006
Posted on: December 22, 2010 12:08 am
 

Bowl pix by JR -- Dec. 21 update

I not only lost Tuesday's game to fall to 2-2, my underdog moneyline strategy is off to an 0-4 start.

Underdog moneyline strategy
0-4/-10/Total -40: Beef O'Brady's: Louisville wins as FAV vs. So. Miss (+120)

Expert Picks standings:
Chip Patterson 239-69, Darst 236-72, me 232-76, Dodd 228-80, Jacobi 226-82 & Horowitz 224-84




Since: Aug 24, 2006
Posted on: December 19, 2010 3:48 pm
 

Bowl pix by JR – Dec. 19 update

Well, the first day of bowls saw my "underdog moneyline" strategy go 0-3. That would make us -3 units if you played a unit per game.

I did go 2-1 in my picks, being the only expert to pick Northern Illinois, but with my 1-2 showing on the handicapping side, I'm not too pleased.

Expert Picks standings: Chip Patterson 238-69, Darst 236-71, me 232-75, Dodd 228-79, Jacobi 226-81 & Horowitz 223-84.

Handicap suggestions:
1-2 makes me 20-25-1 on the year.

Underdog moneyline strategy
0-1/-10: New Mexico BYY wins as FAV vs. UTEP (+320)
0-2/-10/Total -20: Humanitarian: Northern Illinois wins as FAV vs. Fresno State (+111)
0-3/-10/Total -30: New Orleans: Troy wins as FAV vs. Ohio (+110)

 




Since: Aug 24, 2006
Posted on: December 19, 2010 3:43 pm
This comment has been removed.

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Since: Aug 24, 2006
Posted on: December 19, 2010 3:34 pm
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