Have you ever wondered: is Chase Utley better than Dan Uggla, or vice versa?
Neither have I. However, with my extreme research powers, I am going to find out. As of now, Uggla is batting .318 with 16 home runs and 37 RBIs. Utley is batting .303 with 15 home runs and 36 RBIs. Uggla is 28 years old and Utley is 29. Over the past few years, these stats have not been so even. In playing less than 33% of the time last year, Uggla has over 50% of the home runs thus far. It seems like an amazing breakout year. Looking at the stats, although it is very vague, it seems that Utley may not have had a breakout. In 2004, Chase Utley hit a home run in about every 21 at bats. The next year, Utley hit one in every 19, and the next, every 21 again. Last year, he hit one in every 24 at bats, and this year one in every 13. Uggla is similar. In 2006, he hit one in every 23 at bats, and last year, one in every 20. This year he hits one every 11` at bats. There seems to be a pattern here. None of this years' great power numbers will stick, though. Neither of these guys hit as well during the second half of the season. Throughout his career, Uggla hit .284 in the first half and .250 in the second half, 44 points lower. In Utley's career, he has hit .306 in the first half and .293 in the second half, only 13 points lower. In the first half, Uggla hits a homer every 18 at bats, and in the second a homer every 21. Utley in the first half hits one out every 20 at bats, but in the second hits one out every 22. If you do the math you'll find that by the end of the year neither will have these great batting averages, (Utley will most likely have the better one), and neither will have the great power, although Uggla will hit more home runs than Utley. If injury occurs, anything can change. My prediction is Utley hits .293 and Uggla hits .289. Also, Utley will hit about 34 home runs, will Uggla will hit 35-39. Both the Philadelphia Phillies and the Florida Marlins lineups have been hot this year, so I would expect similar 115-140 RBI years for both.
Uggla vs. Utley
Posted on: May 26, 2008 11:51 am