Blog Entry

Brewers could win (and this time I mean it)

Posted on: December 20, 2010 5:22 pm
Don't ask me if the Zack Greinke trade makes the Brewers the favorite to win the National League Central.

I'm the idiot that picked the Brewers to win the Central last year.

So yeah, if you take the flawed team that I thought could win, then add Greinke and Shaun Marcum, I'm ready to pick the Brewers again.

This time, I won't be alone. This time, I might even be right.

"I think Cincinnati's much better than St. Louis," one veteran National League executive said today. "And I think Milwaukee's better than Cincinnati."

That opinion isn't near unanimous among baseball people. A quick survey of scouts and executives had quite a few favoring the Reds to repeat, and some even suggesting that the Cubs could win, if their young players develop.

But not surprisingly, every scout I talked to thought that the twin trades for pitching make the Brewers into a team that could win.

"I think they're a legitimate contender," one American League scout said. "I really think Marcum will solidify their rotation. He'll go out and give them seven innings basically every time out. He's a lot like Bronson Arroyo, coming over from the American League."

Arroyo came to the Reds in 2006, coming off a season where he went 14-10 with a 4.51 ERA for the Red Sox. He's 70-60 in five years with the Reds, with a combined ERA of 3.97.

This past year, when the Reds won the Central, Arroyo went 17-10.

Marcum, who was the Blue Jays' opening day starter in 2010, went 13-8 with a 3.64 ERA. Getting out of the AL East could help; he was 1-6 with a 5.64 ERA in 10 starts against the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees, and 12-2 with a 2.72 ERA in 21 starts against everyone else.

Coming to the Brewers should also help Greinke, even though Miller Park is much less favorable to pitchers than Kansas City's Kauffman Stadium. Greinke sometimes seemed disinterested in pitching for the sad-sack Royals in 2010, and in an interview today with the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel , he admitted that he waived his no-trade clause to accept the deal with the Brewers because he was convinced that Milwaukee is now trying to win.

"Greinke can win in any park, if he wants to," one scout said. "He's a No. 1, if he wants to be. On good days, right-handed hitters don't have a chance against him, and lefties don't have much of a chance, either."

With Greinke and Marcum, the Brewers now have a real chance.

Take it from me . . . and from a few guys who were smart enough not to pick them to win in 2010.

Since: Nov 17, 2009
Posted on: December 23, 2010 2:34 pm

Brewers could win (and this time I mean it)

Well Bucky Brew Pack if we're going to bring irrelevant and completely ridiculous opinionated information into this argument here is some stuff for you:

Big Ten Titles
Ohio State-35

National Titles
Ohio State-7

Heisman Winners
Ohio State-7
Wisconsin- 2

The Brewers have never won the World Series.  The Reds have won Five.  So both of the teams that your post suggests you are a fan of have never won a championship.  The Brewers are not good.  Good luck with the two(if they don't suck and trade him) years of Greinke and then realizing you let a good portion of your good young talent go.  The Reds will just stay with their loaded farm system and contend for a while.  But props to you I mean you used a lot of factual information in your post and it had a lot of good substance to it. You might want to argue with some Cubs or Pirates fans though about placement in the Central for 2011 because the brew crew will probably be closer to those teams than the top of the division. 

Since: Jun 14, 2007
Posted on: December 22, 2010 11:02 pm

Brewers could win (and this time I mean it)

Hey, Suckeye2115,

The Badgers punked the Yuckeyes and the Brew-Crew will do the same to the Reds in 2011.  How many games did the Reds win against good teams last year?  Not many, remember?  How about all the dramatic 9th inning wins against those same crappy teams?  Way too many, remember.  Say good bye to the Red Stockings in 2011.  The party is over, kind of like the match up against the Phillies in the playoffs.  zzzzzzzzz

Badgers 70  TCU 10

Arkansas 56   Pryor Can't Throw  17

Since: Nov 17, 2009
Posted on: December 22, 2010 6:30 pm

Brewers could win (and this time I mean it)

I get so tired of seeing the predictions come flying about a new team being favored to win a division based on a trade in December. Lets take a look at what has happened here and I will give you my take on how the presumed top three in the NL Central stack up for the coming season.  We'll start with the team that has made the most noise thus far, the Brewers.  2010: 77-85 3rd place.  Their pitching staff was rated 15th out 16 in the National league and their bullpen was awful.  Adding Greinke and Marcum were good additions to a pretty pedestrian starting rotation.  Greinke is an obvious ace but I question his ability to compete for a whole season. Even in his CY young season he only won six games after the all-star break and five of the six came after August 25th all against teams who had either been eliminated or clinched a playoff birth.  I'm not saying he can't do it but it remains to be seen and I question any person who admits to quitting on his team no matter how bad you are.  Marcum is a little more interesting.  He has
been consistant for the Blue Jays but he has struggled against good competition(all be it most of the good competition he has face was the AL East).  The rest of the rotation really isn't that great though.  Gallardo is a middle of the rotation guy and he will probably benefit from moving down in the rotation but how much? The rest of the rotation is a question mark and it will remain to be seen whether two good pitchers can get the Brewers over the top.  It didn't work out so well for the Mariners last year and their one two were much better than Greinke-Marcum.  The offense is good but not great.  Fielder and Brauhn are a powerful middle-of-the order combination but the rest of the lineup lacks consistancy.  McGehee was a solid contributer and will only get better, but their are question marks everywhere else.  They gave up a good defensive shortstop and prospect in Escobar and I don't see Ricky Weeks ever living up to his potential. The bullpen is relatively unchanged which is probably the weakest part of their team. Overall the Brewers will be better and I think they make it interesting in the NL Central but I don't know if they will have enough to win the division. Cardinals 2010: 86-76 2nd place. The Cardinals struggled down the stretch in 2010 in almost every facet of the game.  They struggled for most of the season to consitantly score runs and outside of Carpenter and Wainwright, their starting rotation wasn't that great.  Rookie Jaime Garcia was good for them but he played a limited role down the stretch.  They added Ryan Theriot which I think makes their infield slightly better but its not a monumental change.  Adding Lance Berkman was their biggest move and if he can stay healthy I see their lineup being very potent again.  The key for them will be the top of the lineup.  The reason the Cardinals have been so good at manufacturing runs over the past decade has been because the top of their lineup gets on base.  Skip Schumaker and Colby Rasmus did not show the ability to do that consistantly last year and they must improve on that if the Cardinals are going to return to their 2004-2009 form.  I think they will also be playing with a bit of a chip on their shoulder having gotten the best of the Reds head to head but losing the division in 2010.  Overall the Cardinals are improved slightly but unless they make another big move I don't see them being much different from last year.  They are the Cardinals however and they definately have the talent to win this division.  Reds 2010: 91-71 1st place.  The Reds arrived a year early last year.  They had a breakout season from MVP Joey Votto, and solid contributions from the majority of their players.  The biggest key was health.  For the most part the opening day lineup remained intact throughout the season.  They led the NL in almost every offensive category and were number one in defense.  They have an extremely low turnover rate and with the exception of Scott Rolen they are very young.  They haven't made many moves during the offseason other than resigning their own players simply because they really haven't needed to make a move.  The Red's biggest obstacle this year will be themselves.  They were flying under the radar last year and no one really believed they could win the division.  Now they are the defending champs and we will see how they play with a target on their back all year.  They do not have a Zack Greinke or a Chris Carpenter(yet), but they boast in my opinion the deepest starting rotation in the division.  They have seven guys; Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Leake, Wood, Bailey, Maloney and throw in Chapman as a wildcard who can go out and consistantly give you quality innings.  The starting rotation will give this team the chance to win a lot of ballgames.  The bullpen is probably the weakpoint of this team.  Cordero is aging and has a tendancy to struggle throwing strikes.  If they do not resign Arthur Rhodes they will lack a veteren lefthander in the pen and will have to depend on Chapman or Bill Bray.  Masset is a good setup guy and I think Logan Ondrusek is going to be a potential closer of the future.  Overall I think top to bottom this is the best team in the NL Central and with their youth they will only continue to get better.  This is all however just my opinion and as I mentioned earlier you don't win the division in December comparing teams on paper you have to go play the games.  I think the NL Central will be much more competitive this year however and I wouldn't count the Astros out either.

Since: Aug 20, 2008
Posted on: December 22, 2010 6:16 pm

Brewers could win (and this time I mean it)

Are you people for real?

What evidence do you have Marcum will struggle? Marcum struggles against the elite offenses as a number 1 pitcher. He was terrible against the top 3 run producing offenses in the MLB.  So now you think he is going to struggle against the NL why? Like all pitchers, he will pitch better at the beginning since the batters have not seen him as much but he still pitched an ERA under 3 last season against lesser offenses. Other than cinci, who in the NL really compares to the Rays, sox and yanks on offense?

Lets also remember how much Halladay struggled last season in his adjustment from the AL east to the NL.  I will bet marcum has a better ERA next season then he did this year.

As for Greinke, when he is on, he is great. He will be fine as well against the NL.

Does this make the brewers a contender, sure. Does it mean they will win the division, who knows. I bet most of your people weren't picking the Reds to win it last year.

Since: May 5, 2008
Posted on: December 22, 2010 5:13 pm

Brewers could win (and this time I mean it)

Actually, KC is in the American League Central so he did not face the AL East all that often.

Since: Dec 4, 2006
Posted on: December 22, 2010 4:17 pm

Brewers could win (and this time I mean it)

The Brewers could win. Greinke is going to be a stud in the NL. Greinke was 39-32 with a 3.25 ERA for the Royals since returning as a starter after his anxiety disorder. This going against the AL East. That ERA translates to about 55-60 wins on a good hitting team over the same period. He had a "down" year where he had a 4.17 ERA, but the ERA was a product of getting lit up a few games, going deeper in games than he should due to an awful pen and an awful September when games were meaningless and it was obvious he had no drive left. In reality he was one of the better pitchers even last year as he was 8th in the league in quality starts.

Since: Aug 12, 2008
Posted on: December 22, 2010 4:10 pm

Brewers could win (and this time I mean it)

Hey numbnuts, where is your proof that all of a sudden Bruce will put it altogehter this year?  You talk about Weeks fluke year.  Bruce hasn't prooved a darn thing.  Gallardo struggles to win 14 because he goes against the #1 from every other squad.  Yoyo is not a #1, you put him in the 2 spot or possibly 3 in that rotation and he will easily hit the 15 win mark.  Relax Reds fan. 

Since: Dec 19, 2010
Posted on: December 22, 2010 3:41 pm

Brewers could win (and this time I mean it)

Brewers suck,Greinke will quit,nothing will change in the central.

Since: Oct 13, 2009
Posted on: December 22, 2010 3:02 pm

Brewers could win (and this time I mean it)

Remind me how Cliff Lee struggled as a Phillie again?  He went 7-4 with a 3.39 ERA during the regular season and 4-0 with a 2.81 ERA in the postseason.  That sounds terrible to you apparently?

Since: Apr 7, 2008
Posted on: December 22, 2010 2:54 pm

Brewers could win (and this time I mean it)

The Brewers are definently the team to beat in the central. oither than the phillies and giants there isn't a better three or four man rotation quite like theirs. With St. Louis really only having Carpoenter and Wainwright and their sputteriung offense that went absent in the last month of the season, Who knows if Garcia can follow his rookie season up. The Reds do have pitching depth, but who says that offense will be as good this year. Granted they do have The MVP in Votto and an improving Jay Bruce, but can they be consistant. The brwers go in with Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum as their top 3 and then a back end of Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson. Thery have a great middle of the order in Weeks, Fielder, Braun, and Hart. If Betancourt can continue his late power surge of a year ago, the Brewers could run away with that division, Greinke will have plenmty of motivation to play for, and if he can get a 2.74 ERA in the American League like he did in his Cy Young season jus imagine what he could do in the National Laegue. Fantasy owners: this trade should have put Greinke inot the Top 5 pitchers to be taken after Halladay, Lee, Sabathia, and Wainwright.

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