Blog Entry

Davidoff: Sabathia Not Likely For Yankees

Posted on: June 17, 2008 10:45 am
Edited on: June 17, 2008 11:44 am
 

Ken Davidoff provides a reality check to Yankees fans this morning, explaining that Brian Cashman is just lukewarm on C.C. Sabathia (and considers Phil Hughes untouchable).  The Yankees will hang around in the talks, but they are not the frontrunner.  Peter Abraham says the Yanks have six weeks to make a trade, which could be for a lesser pitcher like Paul Byrd or Randy Wolf.

Davidoff says about 20 teams have expressed interest in Sabathia, including the Yankees and Mets.  The Red Sox, Cubs, and Dodgers have also been linked.  According to Davidoff, Mark Shapiro will eventually narrow his list to four or five teams and then get serious.  The Dodgers are one club that has both the need and the goods to make a deal.  Who's your favorite?

Comments

Since: Jun 15, 2008
Posted on: June 18, 2008 3:44 pm
 

Davidoff: Sabathia Not Likely For Yankees

There were very few teams willing to give up what the Twins wanted for Santana, so the market for Sabathia will be just as small- if not smaller. 

The Yanks' prospects haven't amounted to what they had hoped this year.  They don't have the bait to dangle in front of the Indians. 

Boston has enough talent, young and old, to end up in the Series again this year.  They won't want to give up Pedroia or Ellsbury, and the Tribe will want at least one of those guys in the deal.  Just ask Minnesota.

The Cubbies would be an interesting fit.  They're primed for a run in the playoffs this year, but are they willing to give up Marmol?  He's a beast coming out of the pen, and will be their future closer when Wood's arm finally falls off.  Their prospects are still seeming to be 1-2 years away from making an impact in the majors.

Being a die hard Dodger fan, I'd love to see them make a run at Sabathia.  But they weren't willing to give up Kershaw, Broxton, Kemp or Loney in the offseason for Johan- why would they do it now?  Kershaw's basically untouchable- he's hoped to be the next perennial Cy Young award winner.  Broxton has had a couple of hiccups this year, but he's slated to be the closer when Saito's over the hill- which he's close to already.  The Dodgers have always been a dominant pitching organization, but once again, they're dying to score runs this year.  Boy, Andruw really solidified that cleanup spot!  Penny, and now Kuroda, are both looking like they're headed for the shelf, so if LA doesn't make some kind of move now for an impact starter like Sabathia, they're looking at '09 already.  They have the need and the goods- let's see if they throw caution to the wind. 

The Angels always stay quiet, then announce a huge trade or signing from out of the blue- or should I say, the red.  They've broken Dodger fans' hearts with signings such as Vladdy and Hunter- don't think they're not gearing up to make a run at CC too...




Since: Jan 6, 2008
Posted on: June 18, 2008 2:26 pm
 

Davidoff: Sabathia Not Likely For Yankees

Rainmaker...Did you see The Cleveland Plain Dealer and MLB scouts said?

"Hoynes also talked to scouts about what the can expect to receive if they do decide to trade the free agent-to-be.

One scout said that "they could get two young players that were at or close to the big-league level that they could control for a while" while a second scout speculates the bounty could be " two and three prospects, depending on whether that team could sign Sabathia to an extension before he becomes a free agent this winter."

I guess I was not that far off...




Since: Dec 12, 2007
Posted on: June 17, 2008 5:33 pm
 

Davidoff: Sabathia Not Likely For Yankees

Vdaddy, and all Tribe faithful out there, you just need to check your expectations for Sabathia.  Any respectable MLB organizations isn't going to do one of a few things;

- First, they aren't going to trade away someone that is MLB ready, young, and cheap, i.e. if they have a guy that is 2 years away from arbitration and 5 years from free agency, he is staying put. The rare exception is a deal like the Twins-Rays trade of Delmon Young for Matt Garza, but even there, both teams are really just trading for players with the same service clock.

- Second, they are not going to make decisions on a 6 month horizion, i.e. trading to replace someone that went on the DL but won't miss the entire season or fill in for utility roles.

In the past year, two of the best pitchers in the AL were traded, Dan Haren and Johan Santana. For Haren, Oakland got Eveland, Brett Anderson, Greg Smith, Chris Carter, and Carlos Gonzalez. At the time, Gonzalez was the top prize in the deal after only reaching AA and Brett Anderson the pitching prize, targeted as a #3 rotation guy. For Santana, Minnesota got Carlos Gomez, Mulvey, Guerra, and Humber.  With prime precedents like that, its not terribly difficult to gauge what Cleveland will get in return for Sabathia. They won't get anyone who is, like mentioned above, MLB ready, young, and cheap. Their best hope is for a package of 2 developed prospects and 1-2 guys at lower levels with high ceilings. They will not get Clayton Kershaw, not even a chance. Same goes for Joba, and Phil Hughes, and Buchholz. Marmol is not off-limits, but likely not far from it.  

Finally, there are no pieces from Cleveland that anyone wants. Borowski is the least dependable closer in the game, Pronk is aging, DL'd,  and may never hit 30 hr again, V-mart's power disappeared and he can't stay healthy. No one besides Sizemore is hitting over .250.  Sabathia is there trading piece worth anything, and they'll take whatever they can get for him....



Since: Sep 29, 2006
Posted on: June 17, 2008 4:05 pm
 

Davidoff: Sabathia Not Likely For Yankees

Paul Byrd or Randy Wolf? Are you kidding me? It seems to me that the days of the almighty powerful Yankees are long gone. Going after either of these two does nothing but fill the slot of injured pitchers, not improve their current situation. If that's the ceiling they are looking for than the old "Killer instinct" is gone and they must be looking to dust off thier golf clubs and play out the season. Understood, that Sabathia may cost the Yanks more than they are willing to dole out but whatever happened to the fearless Yankees going after the best available player out there? I'm no big Yankee fan but if I were, I'd be awful disapointed if they didn't go after Sabathia whole-heartedly.




Since: Jan 6, 2008
Posted on: June 17, 2008 3:41 pm
 

Davidoff: Sabathia Not Likely For Yankees

Rainmaker...Nice post, but I think your thinking a little small here (as well as some other comments).  Sabathia has been the most dominating pitcher in MLB after April and is certainly more than a "rent-a-player", because: (1) any team that trades for him and loses him to free agency get a Type-A draft pick, (2) the teams interested in trading for him can afford to sign him.  The Indians can trade CC and get great value in return.  There is no way CC is with the Indians by the All-Star break.  Multiple teams would trade to get him and they will have to give up some great players to get him, otherwise, the Indians would be better off agreeing to a $20M+/year deal and trade him on the offeseason.  Plus, any deal the team will try for a sign and trade.

Cubs - Any deal with the Cubs will have to include Marmol.  The Cubs have a terrible track record with their "elite" propects (i.e. Patterson, Pie, Cedeno).  I agree with you on Hill (as I mentioned in my post).  He would be more of a thrown, if the Indians are interested at all.

Dodgers - They need an SP with Penny hurt, as well as, have been looking for a backup infeilder, which makes a CC and Blake trade appealing to them.  The Indians would perfer Kemp and LaRoche becuase of needs.  The names I mentioned also included additional Indians players.  Shapiro has clearly stated that he is willing to move a lot of parts.

Red Sox - Nothing will be done with them, becuase (1) they really do not need CC, and (2) all they have is pitching.

Yankees - Nothing will be done with them unless they are willing to part with Joba.  All the other prospects (i.e. Tabata, Jackson, and Horne) are still 1-2 years away from the Bigs.  Cleveland needs to get at least 1-2 MLB ready players.

Cardinals - May make a run at both CC and Roberts.  They are close enough in the race and have the talent to pull of a deal.

Rays - Agreed.  They may wait another year before trying to pull off a deal like that.

Brewers - Need to make a run to consider anything.




Since: Sep 18, 2006
Posted on: June 17, 2008 3:13 pm
 

Davidoff: Sabathia Not Likely For Yankees

Why would the Dodgers make that deal???  Blake is useless, and I would rather have LaRoche.  Borowski is not desirable, and i would rather have Broxton.  Francisco is nothing special and Kemp is better.  kershaw could easily be as good as Sabathia so why give him up?  Plus, they could give all that up for a rented player.  No way LA does that deal!   



Since: Sep 18, 2006
Posted on: June 17, 2008 3:07 pm
 

Davidoff: Sabathia Not Likely For Yankees

As a Cubs fan I am biased but despite certain people's comments (Gammons) I don't know how the Cubs couldn't make a run at Sabathia.  Cleveland needs a 1B - the Cubs don't have a spot for Hoffpauir.  Cleveland wants young pitching - the Cubs havea couple guys they can give up - Ascaino, Gallagher and even Rich Hill.  Then there are a few other talented people the Cubs just don't have room for like Eric Patterson, Matt Murton, Ronny Cedeno or Tyler Colvin.  Are you telling me the Indians wouldn't want a new 1B, SS, LF, SP and Closer?



Since: Mar 20, 2008
Posted on: June 17, 2008 12:52 pm
 

Davidoff: Sabathia Not Likely For Yankees

I hope for Sabathia's sake he does not end up going to the Dodgers. They are a horrible offensive team that will provide him with no run support...



Since: Dec 12, 2007
Posted on: June 17, 2008 12:33 pm
 

Davidoff: Sabathia Not Likely For Yankees

First of all, the Yankees are never off the table. Jose Tabata, Austin Jackson, and Alan Horne are all legit talent. You have to figure Indians know they are going to lose Sabathia, so they'll take the best deal on the table. They can't expect Phil Hughes and don't need to get him in return. The Santana deal is good proxy for the middle of the road for Sabathia's trade value.

Also, the Cubs are not going to give up Marmol. He's been a shut-down 8th inning guy and is there future closer.  Hill is probably on the table, but not very valuable given his recent struggles. Josh Vitters is a big time 3B prospect that is blocked by Aramis Ramirez and the Indians don't have anything to speak of at the hot corner. Throw if pieces like Sean Gallagher and Jeff Samardzija, and I could see that deal going through pretty easily.

If when you say "latest rumors", you mean "crap I just made up right now" than these are right on, otherwise its complete non-sense. Kershaw is thoroughly untouchable, Kemp is probably close to that status in the eyes of the organization, I could see LaRoche being available, but don't think the Dodgers will be buyers. They would have bought on Santana if there were thinking they were ready to make a run....

Realistically, the team that gets Sabathia needs to win now and likely has the cash to sign him to a long-term contract.  The Cubs are easily the front-runner in both respects, and in fact the Chi-town media talks as if the deal has already been done. Philly, especially with Gillick retiring, is also a possibility, although their farm system has nothing to offer and have the same holes the Indians do. After that, the rest of the NL Central (sans Pirates), the Braves and possibly Texas, are fringe players.

To note, Tampa has young talent locked up for a while, its not in the plan to make run today, Detroit has Rick Porcello and nothing else to offer, plus I can't see an interdivision deal (yes that includes the White Sox), the Angels and Red Sox have more pitching than they know what to do with, the Marlins won't spend a cent on signing CC, and most everyone else is out of contention.....



Since: Jan 6, 2008
Posted on: June 17, 2008 11:07 am
 

Davidoff: Sabathia Not Likely For Yankees

Agreed.  The Yankees and Mets are not a good option for the Indians.  The Yankees only have pitching talent in the minor league level and the Mets are likely going to move some players.  The teams interested in Sabthia are: Rays, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, and possibly, the Brewers.

The Rays, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Brewers have the most to give in a trade.  The Cubs are limited in talent, but names being thrown around are: Marmol, Hill, and Pie.  Even if all three where included in a trade, I think the Indians good do better with another team.  Marmol would be good as the Indians closer in 2009, but Hill and Pie are reall struggling at AAA.  The Dodgers are appearing as the front runners right now for the Ace.  Although there have been some rumors of Billingsly being apart of a trade, the Dodgers are unwilling to trade him.  However, Kershaw, Kemp, LaRoche, and Broxton is a possiblity, but the Indians would have to include additional players.  The lates rumor of an offer is: Kershaw, Kemp, LaRoche, and Broxton for Sabathia, Blake, Borrowski, and Fransico.

Paul Bryd is headed out-of-town as well.  He will end up with the Yankees or Cubs.  The Indians will get a high Class A prospect in return.



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