Blog Entry

How the Mets 2010 season may play out...

Posted on: April 1, 2010 11:51 pm
Edited on: April 1, 2010 11:52 pm
 


I've been thinking about this upcoming season and the closer it gets to Monday, the worse I feel about this team. I'm sticking to my 82-80 prediction, but it wouldn't shock me if this team was under .500.

However, I believe we may see glimpses of hope with the elevation of the prospects during the year. I truly believe Martinez, Davis and Tejada will all be here before September and maybe before July 1. I can see 1B very soon being opened up to Ike Davis. I also believe Castillo will regress and the Mets may decide to just cut their losses and go with the kid Tejada and Cora as his back-up. I have little faith in Beltran to be playing when the Mets expect him to, then staying healthy. The Mets may decide enough is enough and just look to deal him as well, if they fall out of both races. Martinez would be his replacement.

The big problem is there are no replacements available in the rotation which is the most pressing need. Holt probably won't be close to being ready and Mejia may be this team's set-up guy in 2010. Parnell isn't the answer there either.  

I fully expect Manuel to be gone before the All-Star break and Warthen as well. Minaya may survive, but that's 50-50 IMHO. I can see a new management team in place with Wayne Krivsky as interim GM and Bob Melvin as manager and Ricky Bones as pitching coach.

I can see the last 2 months being a trial run for them and players like Beltran, Perez, Maine, Murphy, Castillo and Pagan being jettisoned. Getting rid of Maine and/or Perez would mean seeing guys like Nieve, Takahashi and Figueroa pitching( I just threw up in my mouth a little), unless they brought back ready-made prospects in those deals. Beltran may bring one back, the others nothing even close.

This team is already in a state of flux a week before the season is set to open. Their CF'er is on the DL and out until at least May. Their SS had a thyroid scare and is still out until at least game 6 on April 11. Their closer is in Venezuela "taking care of business." Their 1B man is out 2-6 weeks. Their starting line-up for Opening Day and at least a week could be...

Pagan
Castillo
Wright
Bay
Francoeur
Jacobs/Tatis
Barajas
Cora


Their rotation is...

Santana
Maine
Niese
Pelfrey
Perez

Their pen looks like a mess right now. You figure 4 days prior to Opening Day the manager and GM would have a clue.


This team desperately needs a good start, but with that rotation and line-up, it seems hard-pressed they could much better than break-even. After their 6 game home-stand against Florida and Washington, they're off to Colorado and St.Louis. That could be a disasterous trip leaving them 4 to 6 under .500 coming home to play the Cubbies. The calls for Manuel's head would grow and the GM would be right behind on the chopping block, especially if the rotation was getting tattoed by Marlin, National, Rockie and Cardinal hitters. I didn't even get into the defense which could have one of worst defensive infields in MLB to start the year and an OF with Francoeur as the lone solid defensive player(especially if Pagan starts in CF).

A slow start could lead to changes in the front-office and dugout and a shift of focus from competing for a playoff berth, to paring payroll, evaluating prospects and planning for 2011, 2-3 months sooner than expected.

In a time where hope springs eternal, this 2010 team seems to fly in defiance to that.

Category: MLB
Tags: Mets
 
Comments

Since: Dec 4, 2007
Posted on: April 3, 2010 3:51 pm
 

How the Mets 2010 season may play out...

The Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Cardinals, Twins and Angels all have that winning attitude. It's no wonder they are virtually in the post-season every year. They have the ownership, front-office and on field coaching to make that happen. The Mets have none of the 3.

Starblazer, you are 100% correct with this assessment, which is why the Mets were basically even with the Phillies 2-3 years ago and are now light years behind them.  Other than signing Jason Bay, which I consider an excellent move, what have they done in the offseason to upgrade the talent? Not a heck of a lot.



Since: Dec 27, 2007
Posted on: April 2, 2010 11:56 pm
 

How the Mets 2010 season may play out...

I don’t want to see old players hanging around because they are allegedly “good club house guys” like Tatis or because they are overpaid like Perez.  I know that Tatis is a left-handed bat off the bench, but I would rather see Carter get some time.  Even if Davis is our 1Bman of the future, let’s see if we can make a future reliable backup out of Carter or enhance his trade value for something we need.  If Ike is ready, Murphy becomes trade bait – probably packaged with others below.  He is not valuable on the bench because he can't play multiple positions.





I agree 100% on Tatis. However, he's a right-handed bat off the bench. I thought his re-signing was stupid. Carter just got cut. Hopefully, he'll be @ Triple A.


I am not a Castillo lover or hater.  I want to see how Havens handles 2B in the minors.  If it looks like he is ready before the trade deadline, get anything you can for Castillo.  Even if he isn't ready, trade Castillo.  He had a good year last year.  Giving him the benefit of the doubt that he will be serviceable this year, I highly doubt we will get much out of him for 2011 due to increased age and decreased range.  If Havens isn’t looking ready for 2010 or 2011, get someone else in the offseason as a free agent.  If someone will take Castillo, fine.  The Mets should eat some of his contract to get this done.  Cora can finish the season

 

 

Havens is nowhere close to being ready. He had a tough year @ St.Lucie defensively and didn't hit well for average. He has power, but I think 2012-2013 is a better timetable for him. I do believe Tejada may be ready to take Castillo's job soon. He is a superior fielder and hit .361 in Spring Training. He will probably make the team, then when reyes returns, be sent to Tripel A. Castillo shoudl be dumped ASAP. he bring nothing to the table and is getting paid 6 million a year. To quote the Comic book guy,"Worst signing ever."

If/when Beltran returns and proves he’s healthy, see what you can get for him in trade value.  His contract is up in 2011 and his greatest trade potential, if healthy, could be before the trade deadline this year.  The Mets, however, need to get some real trade value for him.  If not, hold onto him and try to trade him again in 2011.  You have F-Mart in the wings and now is his time to prove himself or get rid of him too.

 

 

IMHO, Beltran's time here is limited. If this team is a non-factor come the deadline, he should be the first to go. the Mets can get pitching and/or prospects for him. Boston may be interested because of the race they'll be in and they have a lot of young pitching, they can move. Martinez can replace Beltran. I feel that's his best fit. If Beltran completes the year, then he should be dangled this off-season in his walk year. I believe his unexpected surgery was the deathknell as far as the Mets were concerned. Beltran's contract coupled with his missed playing time and variety of aches and pains may be his undoing as a Met.




I am too depressed to say much about the pitching.  Any trades probably need to bring pitchers or pitching prospects in return.  I am staying neutral on Niese.  But if Maine, Pelfrey and Perez continue their poor performances they need to go and the Mets have to sign people and please, no past their prime players.  We need to get younger and build for the future.  The time for band-aids is over.

 

 

I agree 100%. In fact, 110%.

 

 

Great post.




Since: Sep 22, 2009
Posted on: April 2, 2010 6:24 pm
 

How the Mets 2010 season may play out...

In the beginning of spring training, I was hopeful but realistically pessimistic about the Mets chances for 2010.  As spring training progressed, I became more optimistic because of the play of some of our developing players.  Now I am petrified.  I am anticipating the season with dread.  I feel like I am watching a train running down a track that is most likely on a disastrous course with a sleeping conductor.

Okay enough of the metaphors (no pun intended).

This team simply does not have the starting pitching to be competitive.  I don’t care when Reyes or Beltran return.  A strong offense is simply not going to be enough to overcome the lack of depth in the rotation and most likely the bullpen.  The Mets play in what may be the strongest division in baseball this year and mediocrity is not going to lead them to the playoffs.

This needs to be a transition year.  Assuming that the Mets are not going to make the playoffs, I would make the following changes.

I don’t want to see old players hanging around because they are allegedly “good club house guys” like Tatis or because they are overpaid like Perez.  I know that Tatis is a left-handed bat off the bench, but I would rather see Carter get some time.  Even if Davis is our 1Bman of the future, let’s see if we can make a future reliable backup out of Carter or enhance his trade value for something we need.  If Ike is ready, Murphy becomes trade bait – probably packaged with others below.  He is not valuable on the bench because he can't play multiple positions.

I am not a Castillo lover or hater.  I want to see how Havens handles 2B in the minors.  If it looks like he is ready before the trade deadline, get anything you can for Castillo.  Even if he isn't ready, trade Castillo.  He had a good year last year.  Giving him the benefit of the doubt that he will be serviceable this year, I highly doubt we will get much out of him for 2011 due to increased age and decreased range.  If Havens isn’t looking ready for 2010 or 2011, get someone else in the offseason as a free agent.  If someone will take Castillo, fine.  The Mets should eat some of his contract to get this done.  Cora can finish the season.

If Reyes is healthy, SS stays the same.  Same for 3B and LF.

If/when Beltran returns and proves he’s healthy, see what you can get for him in trade value.  His contract is up in 2011 and his greatest trade potential, if healthy, could be before the trade deadline this year.  The Mets, however, need to get some real trade value for him.  If not, hold onto him and try to trade him again in 2011.  You have F-Mart in the wings and now is his time to prove himself or get rid of him too.

Francoeur is arbitration eligible which means the Mets can dump him or keep him at the end of this year depending on how he does and a variety of other things depending on available free agents, F-Mart etc.

You always need a 4<sup>th</sup> OFer.  I am okay with Pagan or Matthews for now, but if the right trade opportunity presents itself, I am fine with adding one of them to the package.

I am too depressed to say much about the pitching.  Any trades probably need to bring pitchers or pitching prospects in return.  I am staying neutral on Niese.  But if Maine, Pelfrey and Perez continue their poor performances they need to go and the Mets have to sign people and please, no past their prime players.  We need to get younger and build for the future.  The time for band-aids is over.

One of the pleasant surprises for this year may be Tak2 in the bullpen.  The Mets got him on a minor league deal and he may actually be good.

We'll be lucky if they finish at .500.

Okay.  I have vented.  Let’s Go Mets!




Since: Dec 27, 2007
Posted on: April 2, 2010 12:17 pm
 

How the Mets 2010 season may play out...

Yogi, I haven't varied from my expectations, even with what has happened. I saw and continue to see this team as incredibly flawed and poorly run. I also believe far too many of the players and coaches are weak-minded.

This organization doesn't have a winning mind-set. They are the kings are it's good enough and let's hope for better. That IMHO is the mentality of a loser.

The Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Cardinals, Twins and Angels all have that winning attitude. It's no wonder they are virtually in the post-season every year. They have the ownership, front-office and on field coaching to make that happen. The Mets have none of the 3.



Since: Jul 10, 2009
Posted on: April 2, 2010 10:12 am
 

How the Mets 2010 season may play out...

Six weeks ago, I had what I thought were realistic expectations of 88-90 wins.  2008 produced 89 wins even with the loss of Billy Wagner and the September collapse.  Jose Reyes was healthy, Luis Castillo had rebounded in 2009, our catching was improved with addition of Henry Blanco, Rod Barajas and Omir Santos now had a season of ML experience.  The infield corner power was down but balenced out by the upgrade at  the outfield corners.  Our pitching staff was unchanged, but we have a two time Cy Young winner at the top.  Maine, Perez, and Pelfrey were all healthy and had pitched well in the past.  Why not win 90 games and the wildcard?  In three days the Mets face the Marlins in what will be another lost year.  .500 will be a moral victory, one positive that will come out of this season is a new GM.


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com