- 1/3 of the season is left and ...
Posted on: August 6, 2010 7:08 pm
Edited on: August 6, 2010 7:17 pm
Guess what? This team isn't going to be making the post-season. Sorry, but the facts are in and the Mets are mediocre. They're mediocre on the field where it counts the most and the numbers do not lie.
When you break the season into thirds it's so painfully obvious. Each third is 54 games. Here's how it looks with 2/3 in:
54 Games: 27-27
108 Games- 54-54
The pattern clearly points to an 80-82 win team. 81 would seem to be the final total based on the numbers.
That's not factoring in anything subjective, like if Beltran gets hot... or even when the rotation start to stumble...
This is what many of us stated in the spring, a mediocre team. I stated 82-80. That looks pretty close. This team has added no one since the spring to a mediocre roster. They haven't subtracted the players that are keeping this team mediocre either. They haven't fired the manager, GM or even one coach. They're staying the course of mediocrity and trying to sell Mets fans, that all is well. It's not and it isn't getting better next year either unless management changes are made and it can't just be the manager and a few coaches.
The farm system isn't teeming with prospects. There is virtually no one who can fill the areas that need to be filled. Those are 2nd base, a top line starter and a bullpen depth. They'll probably need OF depth as well if not a full-time RF. The top pitching prospects are Mejia who was wasted in 2010 and Cohoon who is struggling @ Double A. The top OF prospect is Nieuwenhuis, but he's at least another year away. At 2B it's Tejada, who can field, but his stick is still woeful at this level. IMHO, he needs at least a few months @ AAA next year and may never be an offensive force. Another prospect is Havens, who is oft-injured and who knows if he'll ever stay healthy. The top prospect after that is Flores, but he plays SS and Reyes will probably get a long-term deal or an extension after 2010. That means he's either a 2B man or OF when he's ready in 2012-2013.
That leaves the young guys who are here to lead this team in 2011. Davis is a guy who I believe will. Niese is a nice Ted-Lilly type and should be a solid #3-#4 pitcher. Thole can hit for average and seems to be improving behind the plate, so he may be fine. However, that's just 3 players. This team is loaded with question marks and we all know until the onerous contracts of Perez and Castillo are off the books, next year this team will add little/nothing. That means waiver wire guys and more hoping.
2010 was suppose to be a year where the Mets put aside 2009 and showed fans that was an aberration. Will if you think 80-82 wins did that, I say you have low expectations. This year in the end isn't much different than 2009. The Mets will finish 3rd or 4th and be effectively playing meaningless games from Sept. 15 on, if not earlier.
Much was made of all the injuries in 2009 and that was used over-and-over to excuse failure. Well, look at teams like the Phils and Red Sox who have suffered excruciating injuries, but both are on pace for 90 wins. They have what this organization and team lacks. They have GM's and ownership committed to winning and they have depth from those organizations and when it's missing, they go out and get it. Partly because of that, their players believe they can/will overcome.
What do Wright, Reyes and Santana see? A trade deadline without even a middle reliever added? A pitcher making 12 million a year being hid in the bullpen wasting a roster spot so they can save face? A 6.25 million dollar 2B man who is hitting .250 with 15 RBI and barely can go to his left? A 4 man rotation which is barely holding on? A bench with Cora as it's middle infield replacement? A 19 million dollar CF who can barely move, hardly hustles, is hitting .200 and missed 169 games over the last 2 years but still keeps that position? A bullpen of castoffs and a reliever that is yo-yoed in his role and so overused, he's gone from an effective reliever to someone you dread coming in? A manager who is so bereft of any skill he actually pinch hit a player effectively leaving no 2B man if his team tied the game? A GM who's last "trade" was dumping Wagner, getting a back-up OF who really is a DH and losing 2 draft picks in the process that he would have had if he just kept him? An owner so clueless he lets his idiot son mismanage his club into mediocrity?
This team is .500 because of the talent accumulated, the talent in the minors that isn't there and the ineffectiveness of management to change either of those things. They make up slogans, preach patience, send-out delusional e-mails, take fans money and do nothing. The last part is what galls me the most. Indifference is the opposite of love.
I say never accept or excuse mediocrity. If you do, you deserve what you get.