Doesn't every fantasy manager yearn for the day of yor. I'm talking 2005 and 2006. Well the majority of fantasy owners may not. After all what good would that do if they're holding Matt Wieters in a bench spot?
I do know that owners of Felipe Lopez yearn for those days.
Days when you laid claim to an elite power hitting short stop. When the power went away you had a base stealing master. Now what do you have?
Lets take a quick look at his past numbers just to see what we're looking at.
2007- 70r, 9hr, 50rbi, 24sb, 53bb, 109k, .245avg, .307obp, .351slg, .658ops
2008- 64r, 6hr, 46rbi, 8sb, 43bb, 82k, .282avg, .343obp, 386slg, .729ops
2009- 21r, 4hr, 10rbi, 4sb, 14bb, 28k, .323avg, .378obp, .484slg, .862ops
Those 2009 numbers are particularily impressive, especially if take a look at the pace he's on 85r, 16hr, 40rbi, 16sb, .322avg. That's a solid line for your MI but is it likely to happen?
1- Babip- Lopez's Babip is an outer wordly .372. Let's take that into consideration. The league average generally falls around .300, Lopez's career number is .318 which is above league average, but his current mark is a full 54 points higher. If you're banking on Lopez to maintain his current .323avg, you're going to be highly disappointed. Temper your expectations toward a .275avg.
2- HR/FB%- After a three year falling trend an upward explosion from 4.8% to 11.4% will cause many to raise an eyebrow. His previous career high is 18.3% in his magnificent 2005 season. His career average is 9.3%. So I'd also be looking for a regression back to the mean.
3- Contact Rate- So far this season Lopez has posted a great 82.6% contact rate, but that may well be difficult to maintain. Consider that he has a career 78.4% rate a full 4.2% difference. Which may not seem like much but that could very well be the difference between a .280 hitter and a .300 hitter, as well as a handful of runs and rbi.
All in all, Lopez is a solid end game MI option, but his under lying skills and stats are telling me that his current is a little bit beyond is means. Though previous power and speed production, are swaying the opinions of others.