Lobofan2003

It is Super Bowl Sunday a time for food, friends and of course Bracketology.

A reminder that my bracket does not predict winners of conferences or how I think teams will finish but merely assesses where teams would be seeded as if today was Selection Sunday (which is only 5 weeks away). The bracket takes into account games played through Saturday 2/4.

I try to follow all of the NCAA's Principals and Procedures to avoid rematches, but teams from the same conference in different regions, etc.* In the bracket the winner of the East plays the winner of the West and the winner of the South plays the winner of the Midwest Region.

Auto Bids are in CAPS and are the team with the fewest losses in conference play with ties broken by RPI.

Boston (E)
Pittsburgh (Th, Sa)
1 SYRACUSE
16 LAMAR/UNC-ASHEVILLE

8 Gonzaga
9 Iowa State

Nashville (Fr, Su)
5 Florida
12 Minnesota/Colorado State

4 MURRAY STATE
13 CLEVELAND STATE

Columbus (Fr, Su)
3 Michigan State
14 AKRON

6 Louisville
11 Saint Louis

Greensboro (Fr, Su)
7 Mississippi State
10 Purdue

2 North Carolina
15 BELMONT

Phoenix (W)
Albuquerque (Th, Sa)
1 BAYLOR
16 NORFOLK STATE

8 Virginia
9 Alabama

Louisville (Th, Sa)
5 TEMPLE
12 LONG BEACH STATE

4 Michigan
13 Seton Hall/California

Albuquerque (Th, Sa)
3 Unlv
14 ORAL ROBERTS

6 Indiana
11 Brigham Young

Greensboro (Fr, Su)
7 Connecticut
10 Memphis

2 DUKE
15 BUCKNELL

St. Louis (M)
Louisville (Th, Sa)
1 OHIO STATE
16 LIU-BROOKLYN

8 West Virginia
9 HARVARD

Portland, OR (Th, Sa)
5 ST. MARY'S
12 Dayton

4 SAN DIEGO STATE
13 DAVIDSON

Columbus (Fr, Su)
3 Marquette
14 IONA

6 Illinois
11 Xavier

Omaha (Fr, Su)
7 Vanderbilt
10 Wichita State

2 Missouri
15 DREXEL

Atlanta (S)
Nashville (Fr, Su)
1 KENTUCKY
16 STONY BROOK/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE

8 Kansas State
9 Notre Dame

Portland, OR (Th, Sa)
5 Florida State
12 WASHINGTON

4 CREIGHTON
13 MIDDLE TENNESSEE

Pittsburgh (Th, Sa)
3 Georgetown
14 NEVADA

6 Wisconsin
11 Mississippi

Omaha (Fr, Su)
7 SOUTHERN MISS
10 New Mexico

2 Kansas
15 WEBER STATE

Last Six In: Saint Louis, Dayton, Minnesota, Colorado State, Seton Hall, California

Last Four Out: Saint Joseph's, Arkansas, Arizona, Northwestern
Next Four Out: North Carolina State, Cincinnati, UCF, Wyoming

Play-In Games (Tuesday/Wednesday)

Tuesday
16E: LAMAR/UNC ASHEVILLE
13W: Seton Hall/California

Wednesday
16S: STONY BROOK/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
12E: Minnesota/Colorado State


*I realize there is a potential rematch from the 2010 NCAA Tournament between Syracuse and Gonzaga and from the 2011 NCAA Tournament between Marquette and Xavier but I could not avoid that without violating other procedures.

Welcome to the 2nd edition of Lobofan2003's 2012 Bracketology.

About the Bracket: The way I do bracketology is always based on as if the season ended and today was Selection Sunday. I don't make determinations about a team will finish the season or base the bracket on what I think of a team, but rather how I believe the NCAA Tournament Committee would seed the teams. Some times teams are switched around in order to account for the NCAA Prinicples and Procedures that the Committee is supposed to follow in putting together a bracket (where teams from the same conference can be placed, attempting to avoid rematches, etc.).

The bracket takes into account games played through 1/21/12.
Automatic bids are noted in CAPS based on fewest conference losses (ties broken by highest RPI); this year the winner of the East Region will play the winner of the West Region and the winner of the South region will play the winner of the Midwest Region in the Final Four.

Without further ado...

Boston (E)
Pittsburgh (Th, Sa)
1 SYRACUSE
16 LAMAR

8 Wisconsin
9 Alabama

Portland, OR (Th, Sa)
5 Gonzaga
12 Memphis

4 CREIGHTON
13 LONG BEACH STATE

Greensboro (Fr, Su)
3 North Carolina
14 MIDDLE TENNESSEE

6 West Virginia
11 Arkansas

Columbus (Fr, Su)
7 SAN DIEGO STATE
10 Xavier

2 MICHIGAN STATE
15 BUCKNELL

Phoenix (W)
Albuquerque (Th, Sa)
1 Baylor
16 WEBER STATE

8 Wichita State
9 CALIFORNIA

Columbus (Fr, Su)
5 Vanderbilt
12 Cincinnati

4 Indiana
13 ORAL ROBERTS

Albuquerque (Th, Sa)
3 Unlv
14 AKRON

6 Connecticut
11 Northwestern

Greensboro (Fr, Su)
7 DAYTON
10 Florida

2 DUKE
15 GEORGE MASON

St. Louis (M)
Omaha (Fr, Su)
1 KANSAS
16 LIU-BROOKLYN/UNC ASHEVILLE

8 Temple
9 ST. MARY'S

Nashville (Fr, Su)
5 Michigan
12 North Carolina State/Marshall

4 Marquette
13 CLEVELAND STATE

3 MURRAY STATE
14 IONA

6 Mississippi State
11 Central Florida

Pittsburgh (Th, Sa)
7 Louisville
10 HARVARD

2 Ohio State
15 BELMONT

Atlanta (S)
Louisville (Th, Sa)
1 KENTUCKY
16 BOSTON UNIVERSITY/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE

8 Florida State
9 Purdue

Portland, OR (Th, Sa)
5 Seton Hall
12 Saint Louis/Stanford

4 Kansas State
13 DAVIDSON

Louisville (Th, Sa)
3 Georgetown
14 NEVADA

6 Illinois
11 Mississippi

Omaha (Fr, Su)
7 Virginia
10 SOUTHERN MISS

2 Missouri
15 NORFOLK STATE    

Bids By League: BIG10-8, BIGE-8, SEC-7, ACC-5, ATL10-4, BIG12-4, USA-4, MVC-2, MWC-2, PAC12-2, WCC-2

Last Four In (At-Large Play-In Game Participants): Saint Louis, Stanford, North Carolina State, Marshall

Last Four Out: Minnesota, Oregon, BYU, New Mexico
Next Four Out: Colorado State, Iowa State, Massachusetts, Northern Iowa

Opening Round Games:
Tuesday
16S- BOSTON U. (America East) vs. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)
12S- Saint Louis vs. Stanford

Wednesday
16M- LONG ISLAND (Northeast) vs. UNC-ASHEVILLE (Big South)
12M- North Carolina State vs. Marshall

Welcome to the 1st edition of Lobofan2003's Bracketology. First of all, I hope everyone has a great and blessed New Year! This will be the 4th year that I do a bracketology; due to the lack of free time to devote to bracketology my updates will likely be less frequent than in past years, but I hope to put out a new bracket every couple of weeks or so until it cranks up in March.

About the Bracket: The way I do bracketology is always based on as if the season ended and today was Selection Sunday. I don't make determinations about a team will finish the season or base the bracket on what I think of a team, but rather how I believe the NCAA Tournament Committee would seed the teams. Some times teams are switched around in order to account for the NCAA Prinicples and Procedures that the Committee is supposed to follow in putting together a bracket (where teams from the same conference can be placed, attempting to avoid rematches, etc.)

I don't like to tout my own horn but I would like to point out, for anyone questioning my credentials as a Bracketologist, that I have been the 9th best bracketologist based on final bracket over the last 3+ years according to the Bracket Project Matrix http://bracketproject.50webs.com/ra
nkings.html, beating Yahoo, Fox Sports, CBS and ESPN's bracketologists.

Automatic bids are noted in CAPS based on conference record (ties broken by highest RPI); this year the winner of the East Region will play the winner of the West Region and the winner of the South region will play the winner of the Midwest Region in the Final Four.

Without further ado the bracket....

Boston (E)
Pittsburgh (Th, Sa)
1 SYRACUSE
16 MAINE/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE

8 Virginia
9 Alabama

Portland, OR (Th, Sa)
5 Gonzaga
12 Dayton

4 Kansas State
13 VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH

Omaha (Fr, Su)
3 Kansas
14 MIDDLE TENNESSEE

6 Virginia Tech
11 Saint Louis

Columbus (Fr, Su)
7 Florida
10 San Diego State

2 MICHIGAN STATE
15 ROBERT MORRIS

Phoenix (W)

Albuquerque (Th, Sa)
1 BAYLOR
16 LAMAR

8 Illinois
9 CALIFORNIA

Nashville (Fr, Su)
5 Purdue
12 Wichita State

4 Seton Hall
13 Memphis/Denver

Louisville (Th, Sa)
3 Indiana
14 SOUTH DAKOTA STATE

6 Marquette
11 New Mexico
 
Greensboro (Fr, Su)
7 TEMPLE
10 ST. MARY'S

2 North Carolina
15 WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE

Atlanta (S)

Louisville (Th, Sa)
1 KENTUCKY
16 BUCKNELL

8 Xavier
9 Minnesota

Albuquerque (Th, Sa)
5 UNLV
12 Arizona

4 Louisville
13 IONA 

Nashville (Fr, Su)
3 Georgetown
14 DAVIDSON

6 Michigan
11 MISSOURI STATE

Pittsburgh (Th, Sa)
7 HARVARD
10 OHIO

2 Ohio State
15 NORFOLK STATE

St. Louis (M)

Greensboro (Fr, Su)
1 DUKE
16 WEBER STATE/CHARLESTON SOUTHERN

8 West Virginia
9 Creighton

Portland, OR (Th, Sa)
5 Vanderbilt
12 Stanford/St. Joseph's

4 MURRAY STATE
13 BELMONT

Omaha (Fr, Su)
3 Missouri
14 LONG BEACH STATE

6 Wisconsin
11 SOUTHERN MISS

Columbus (Fr, Su)
7 Mississippi State
10 Northwestern

2 Connecticut
15 NEW MEXICO STATE   


Bids By League: BIG10-9, BIGE-7, ATL10-5, SEC-5, ACC-4, BIG12-4, MVC-3, MWC-3, PAC10-3, BELT-2, USA-2, WCC-2

Last Four In (Opening Round Games): Stanford, Saint Joseph's, Memphis, Denver

Last Four Out: Mississippi, Cleveland State, Northern Iowa, NC State
Next Four Out: Wagner, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma, BYU

Opening Round Games:

Tuesday
16E- MAINE (America East) vs. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)
12M- St. Joseph's vs. Stanford

Wednesday
16M- WEBER STATE (Big Sky) vs. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN (Big South)
13W- Memphis vs. Denver

How is Conference Realignment going to affect each of the conferences in basketball?

Everyone is focused on what realignment is going to do to the balance of power in football, well because that's the reason for all the realignment. But I think there are some interesting effects on some of the conferences in basketball.

Big Winners:

ACC- A very strong basketball league is about to get stronger. Pittsburgh and Syracuse are very strong basketball programs with talented head coaches in Jamie Dixon and Jim Boeheim; add these two schools to Duke, North Carolina, Florida State and Virginia Tech and you have a very powerful basketball league. Probably will be the best basketball league in the country.

SEC- The SEC just became a better basketball league. While down this year, A&M is traditionally a strong basketball program and Missouri has continued their recent string of success this year. Kentucky, Florida and Tennessee already anchor a strong tradition in the SEC.

Big Losers:

Big East- Yes they'll still have 16 teams in basketball, but it will be a more watered-down league. In addition to losing Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC the Big East loses West Virginia to the Big 12. Houston, UCF and SMU are nowhere near the basketball schools that Pitt, Syracuse and WVU are.

Mountain West- The Mountain West loses another one of it's anchor programs in basketball, San Diego State. Already having lost Utah and BYU, two schools that have traditionally had success in the MWC, this is another blow to the league. Nevada and Fresno State join the league; Nevada has had some good years in the WAC in recent years and will need to continue that success if the MWC is going to keep its strong profile in basketball.

The performance by the Big East and Big Ten in the NCAA tournament has been underwhelming to say the least.

The two conferences combined to earn 16 of the 37 at-large teams in the field. Of those 16 at-large teams, none remain in the Elite 8. (The only team from the Big East or Big Ten remaining is UCONN who won the Big East Auto Bid.) Meanwhile we have teams that some felt didn't belong in the field (VCU) and from one of the "weaker" Big 6 conferences (Arizona) who received at-large bids that are still alive and kicking.

Of the record 5 teams that received at-large bids with 14 losses; 3 of them came from the Big East and Big Ten. Marquette equitted itself well, winning two games to get to the Sweet 16, but Penn State and Michigan State fell flat in their opening games.

What am I trying to say with all of this? Maybe, the so called "best" conferences aren't really any better than any others. While I didn't believe any of the 16 at-large teams from the Big East and Big Ten where unworthy of getting in, it doesn't appear to be good for the Tournament to have so many teams in from a particular conference taking up a large portion of the at-large bids.

I would have loved to see what Colorado, Alabama, St. Mary's or Harvard could've done in the Tournament. What should be done then to give more access to the tournament to teams from more conferences? Do we need a cap on the number of teams from a particular conference? I don't think that's the solution, the Committee is supposed to look at individual teams and not what conference they are from; a cap would defeat that line of thinking.

I propose that we expand the Tournament to 72 teams, creating four additional 1st Round games. This would make the last 12 at-large teams who get into the field play in the 1st round instead of the last 4. These 12 teams would be the current 4 that are in the "First Four", the additional four at-large teams that would be included and the last four teams that received byes this year. The bubble was so weak this year I don't think anyone can argue that the last four teams that received byes were that deserving of receiving one.

This year you could've had, in addition to the "First Four" games that we had, Missouri vs. Alabama, Marquette vs. St. Mary's, Penn St. vs. Colorado and Michigan St. vs. Harvard; those would've been exciting games to watch and would've allowed for additional games throughout the day on Tuesday and Wednesday just like we do on Thursday and Friday of opening weekend. (Imagine all the reduced office productivity, haha!)

This is it, if there are any changes to be made it's not happening, I'm locking the bracket down.

With the Buckeyes winning the Big Ten Tournament they are the #1 overall seed and will play in the East Region. The winner of the East Region will play the winner of the West Region; winner of the Southwest Region will play the winner of the Southeast Region.

AUTO BIDS are in CAPS.

San Antonio (SW)
Tulsa (Fr, Su)
1 KANSAS vs. 16 NC-ASHEVILLE
8 UTAH STATE vs. 9 Villanova

Denver (Th, Sa)
5 St. John's vs. 12 Georgia
4 Wisconsin vs. 13 OAKLAND

Tampa (Th, Sa)
3 Florida vs. 14 INDIANA STATE
6 Arizona vs. 11 Michigan State

DC (Th, Sa)
7 Unlv vs. 10 RICHMOND
2 CONNECTICUT vs. 15 BOSTON U.

New Orleans (SE)
Charlotte (Fr, Su)
1 DUKE vs. 16 HAMPTON
8 Missouri vs. 9 Tennessee

Tuscon (Th, Sa)
5 West Virginia vs. 12 Penn State
4 Brigham Young vs. 13 BELMONT

Tampa (Th, Sa)
3 KENTUCKY vs. 14 LONG ISLAND
6 Georgetown vs. 11 GONZAGA

Tulsa (Fr, Su) 7 OLD DOMINION vs. 10 Marquette
2 Texas vs. 15 WOFFORD

Anaheim (W)
DC (Th, Sa)
1 Pittsburgh vs. 16 SANTA BARBARA/AR-LITTLE ROCK
8 Temple vs. 9 Illinois

Cleveland (Fr, Su)
5 Vanderbilt vs. 12 Virginia Tech/VCU
4 Louisville vs. 13 PRINCETON

Chicago (Fr, Su)
3 Purdue vs. 14 BUCKNELL
6 Kansas State vs. 11 Florida State

Tuscon (Th, Sa)
7 WASHINGTON vs. 10 BUTLER
2 SAN DIEGO STATE vs. 15 NORTHERN COLORADO

Newark (E)
Cleveland (Fr, Su)
1 OHIO STATE vs. 16 UTSA/ALABAMA STATE
8 George Mason vs. 9 Ucla

Denver (Th, Sa)
5 Texas A&M vs. 12 St. Mary's/Clemson
4 Syracuse vs. 13 MOREHEAD STATE

Charlotte (Fr, Su)
3 North Carolina vs. 14 ST. PETER'S
6 Cincinnati vs. 11 MEMPHIS

Chicago (Fr, Su)
7 Xavier vs. 10 Michigan
2 Notre Dame vs. 15 AKRON

First Four Games (Tu, We)

Tuesday
12E-St. Mary's vs. Clemson
16W-SANTA BARBARA vs. AR-LITTLE ROCK

Wednesday
16E-UTSA vs. ALABAMA STATE
12W-Virginia Tech vs. VCU

Last Four Out: Colorado, UAB, Harvard, Alabama
Bids By League: BIGE-11, BIG10-7, ACC-5, BIG12-5, SEC-5, ATL10-3, COL-3, MWC-3, PAC10-3, WCC-2

Here is my latest bracket through 6PM ET on Friday. Bracket is if season ended today.

Lots of changes since Sunday, probably too many to list. Some key takeaways; despite what some bracketologists are saying Georgia is still in the field and Alabama is still out in my bracket even after their game today. Boston College is definitely out after getting blown out by Clemson.

Big bubble games tonight with Michigan State, Penn State, USC, Virginia Tech, and New Mexico trying to earn their way into the Tournament. Of those teams I only have Michigan State and Virginia Tech in for now, but both likely need to win in order to stay in the bracket.

Winner of the East Region will play the winner of the West Region; winner of the Southeast Region plays the winner of the Southwest Region.

Auto Bids are in CAPS and are the Conference Tournament winner or highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.

Newark (E)

Cleveland (Fr, Su)
1 OHIO STATE vs. 16 BETHUNE-COOKMAN/ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK
8 OLD DOMINION vs. 9 Villanova

Denver (Th, Sa)
5 Texas A&M vs. 12 HARVARD
4 Louisville vs. 13 TEXAS-EL PASO

DC (Th, Sa)
3 Syracuse vs. 14 KENT STATE
6 ARIZONA vs. 11 GONZAGA

Charlotte (Fr, Su)
7 Missouri vs. 10 Richmond
2 Duke vs. 15 WOFFORD

Anaheim (W)

DC (Th, Sa)
1 Pittsburgh vs. 16 McNEESE STATE/TEXAS SOUTHERN
8 Ucla vs. 9 George Mason

Tampa (Th, Sa)
5 St. John's vs. 12 Clemson/Memphis
4 Kentucky vs. 13 OAKLAND

Charlotte (Fr, Su)
3 NORTH CAROLINA vs. 14 LONG ISLAND
6 Kansas State vs. 11 Michigan

Denver (Th, Sa)
7 Georgetown vs. 10 BUTLER
2 BRIGHAM YOUNG vs. 15 LONG BEACH STATE

New Orleans (SE)

Tulsa (Fr, Su)
1 KANSAS vs. 16 BOSTON UNIVERSITY
8 UTAH STATE vs. 9 Illinois

Cleveland (Fr, Su)
5 Vanderbilt vs. 12 Virginia Tech/Virginia Commonwealth
4 Connecticut vs. 13 BELMONT

Tuscon (Th, Sa)
3 San Diego State vs. 14 INDIANA STATE
6 Cincinnati vs. 11 Georgia

Chicago (Fr, Su)
7 Xavier vs. 10 Marquette
2 Purdue vs. 15 ST. PETER'S

San Antonio (SW)

Chicago (Fr, Su)
1 NOTRE DAME vs. 16 NC-ASHEVILLE
8 Florida State vs, 9 Tennessee

Tuscon (Th, Sa)
5 West Virginia vs. 12 Colorado
4 Wisconsin vs. 13 MOREHEAD STATE

Tampa (Th, Sa)
3 FLORIDA vs. 14 BUCKNELL
6 Unlv vs. 11 Michigan State

Tulsa (Fr, Su)
7 TEMPLE vs. 10 Washington
2 Texas vs. 15 NORTHERN COLORADO

Last Six Pack: Georgia, Colorado, Clemson, Memphis, Virginia Tech, VCU
Last Six Out: St. Mary's, Penn State, USC, Alabama, New Mexico, UAB

Bids By League: BIGE-11, BIG10-6, BIG12-6, ACC-5, SEC-5, ATL10-3, COL-3, MWC-3, PAC10-3, USA-2

I realize the 1st Round or Pigtail game has already been played, but that doesn't really effect anything.

The Mountain West tournament is wide open this year; I don't believe there is any clear favorite. Any of the top 5 teams are capable of winning the whole thing which should make for some exciting action.

Players to Watch : Everyone knows about Jimmer Fredette who leads the nation in scoring. But there are many other exciting players to watch in the Mountain West:

1. Jimmer Fredette-Leads the nation in scoring; the Cougars are going to need to lean on him if they are going to win the MWC tournament in the absence of Brandon Davies.

2. Kewhi Leonard-Perhaps the best all-around player in the Mountain West; Leonard averages 15 points and 11 rebounds per game. Leonard has huge hands which help him on the glass. Perhaps the one weakness is Leonard's game is when he tries to shoot the 3; Leonard only shoots 26% from 3.

3. Andy Ogide-Haven't been able to see him on TV much this year, but Ogide has impressive numbers and is the lynchpin of the Colorado State offensive attack. A very effective post player, Ogide shoots 59% from the field.

4. Tre'von Willis-The Rebels have improved this season as Willis has gotten healthier. Willis missed 5 games and has been injuried in other games he has played. When he is on though, the Rebels are hard to stop.

5. Dairese Gary-He may not be flashy, but the Senior Lobos guard is all heart and determination. Gary is the Lobos leading score and after getting his first taste of the NCAA Tournament last year, Gary is going to try to put the Lobos on his back and will them into the NCAA Tournament; to do that the Lobos may need to win the conference tournament.

Favorite: San Diego State- BYU may be the #1 seed, beating San Diego State twice in the regular season, but the Cougars have lots of questions surrounding them after the suspension of Brandon Davies. The Aztecs are the defending tournament champions and their depth and athleticism should carry them to the title. If the Aztecs don't get it done though it wouldn't surprise me as the Mountain West has 5 teams capable of winning three games in a row.

Darkhorse: Colorado State- Nobody's talking about the Rams winning this tournament, but the Rams are a bubble team and will be motivated to play well and try to play their way into the NCAA tournament. Ogide is the type of player that the Rams can ride and nobody other than SDSU has the size or depth to stop him.

Team whose Bubble Bursts: New Mexico-The Lobos need to at least make the tournament final to have any chance at the NCAA tournament and may need to win the whole thing. If the Lobos can win the 4/5 matchup with Colorado State they likely get a BYU team they swept in the regular season. I think that's motivation enough for BYU and it's difficult enough to beat a team three times in a season. Add into all of that, the Lobos are 1-3 in the Mountain West tournament under Steve Alford and the odds stack against the talented, but young, Lobos team

Pick: UNLV-Hard to pick against the home team. The Rebels have won 5 in a row and Tre'von Willis is getting his game together. The Rebels haven't been able to beat the Aztecs, their likely semifinal opponent, but they have been close in both games despite shooting extremely poorly. Rebels finally put together a good shooting game against the Aztecs and then beat a tired Jimmer Fredette and BYU in the final.